This suggests that Russia expects a political settlement or at least an armistice within the next six months so it’s now prioritizing the further legitimization of its control over the new regions by finally completing their legal integration into the country at the local administrative level by 10 September.
"This suggests that Russia expects a political settlement or at least an armistice within the next six months..."
Meh, a lot can ALSO be explained by the thesis that Russia does NOT expect a further normalisation and therefore proceeds to wrap things up and stop giving the West and Ukraine the false hope of a future settlement and peaceful coexistence.
I'll play devil's advocate and try to focus on the other side of the coin;
1) "..likely due to stereotypically slow bureaucracy and the state’s focus on waging the special operation."
I've been to Russia (as a matter of fact, I'm in Moscow now 👋) and yes, the bureaucracy is suffocating, but at the same time the bureaucrats are not the ones fighting in Ukraine. They are doing their b.s. paper shuffling exercises, regardless of whether the world is coming to an end or not. (Have you, as a foreigner, already registered your biometrics for SIM card? 🤡😃 That's my point... p.s. deadline is 30.06)
2) "If Putin didn’t get around to decreeing that this is finally done within less than six months..."
So basically they have been doing 'the square root of fvck-all' for 36 months (= 3 years) but now everything has to be completed in 6 months? It's unfortunately more of a typical "hurry-up-and-wait" example of a bureaucracy where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. I doubt this is due to a sudden armistice. An alternative explanation could be this: https://substack.com/home/post/p-159393266 😃
3) "From there, Ukraine could claim that Russia is “atoning for its guilty conscience of illegally occupying foreign land” by letting the locals over whom the state assumed responsibility “preserve their separate Ukrainian legal status”, thus serving as the pretext for Kiev to meddle in those lands after hostilities end. By mandating that they voluntarily legalize their presence in line with Russian law or be deported, Moscow neutralizes Kiev’s aforesaid claims, thus delegitimizing any post-conflict meddling on that basis."
No not really because the process is EITHER naturalisation to Russian citizenship OR by keeping (!) their Ukrainian citizenship if they have a job or are enrolled in an educational program. You already pointed this out yourself in the second paragraph: "They can do this by either applying for Russian citizenship via the simplified procedure for Ukrainian nationals that entered into force in summer 2022 or for residency by either proving legal employment or enrollment in a Russian education program."
If these people decide to keep their Ukrainian citizenship when they work or study in Russia, then Ukraine can still use the excuse to 'meddle' in Russia's affairs.
4) "In other words, this decree is meant to facilitate the incipient peace process by fortifying Russia’s legal claims to the four former Ukrainian regions that unified with it after September’s 2022 referenda, which reaffirms that Russia won’t cede these lands since they’re now being fully treated as integral territories."
I partly agree. Yes, it fortifies Russia's claims over those 4 (former) Ukrainian Oblasts, but I doubt that this will provide for a basis of an armistice. As a matter of fact, it will more probably encourage the Ukrainians (together with the European US Vassals) to fight on.
5) "That was already the case ever since the state assumed responsibility for them, but it’ll now be more strictly enforced as the situation begins normalizing, which will likely lead to a ramping up of the FSB’s counter-intelligence operations."
If the FSB is only now starting to ramp up counter-intelligence operations then they are seriously LATE to the party... Security here in Moscow has SERIOUSLY ramped up over the last few 5-6 months (in the metro, near the Red Square etc) and IMHO this is HARDLY a sign of a detente. If they are now (finally!) waking up and starting to look for Ukrainian sleeper cells in Russia ("...same locals might remain loyal to Ukraine even after legalizing their presence...") then IMHO they OBVIOUSLY are expecting more trouble ahead, again, hardly a sign of a future settlement.
IMHO this is yet another example of Russia more or less throwing in the towel and stopping the pretence of 'being the nice guy,' and instead CUTTING ties with Ukraine and formalising the incorporation of those 4 new Oblasts in the Russian Federation. Ukrainians in Russia will have to make a decision: 'either you are with us, or you are against us,' this is the way I interpret this latest move.
Russia’s new rules remind me the present situation in the U.S. with the REAL ID system. Every U.S. citizen who wants to board a domestic or international flight will have to have REAL ID or passport from May 7, 2025. A properly trained, docile citizen must visit a DMV office and offer Proof of documentation proving full legal name, date of birth, Social Security number, two proofs of residency, and lawful status. That also means the 20-30+ or who knows how many million illegal aliens will be deprived from flying.
The Ukraine rules are substantially harsher as noncompliance means mandatory dislocation. Harsher times, harsher rules. In the Ukrainian situation a substantial result will be a Russification of the new territories as they will try to eliminate the more radical Ukrainian segment. This experience goes back to the 1881 assassination of Alexander II that was followed by a plot against Alexander III in 1887. In the second act Lenin’s older brother Alexander Ul'ianov was executed for participation helping Lenin to radicalize toward 1917.
Considering that 10 to 20 million Ukrainians already left the country, the reminder of their population should have little problems moving out of Russian territories. The final results of this Russian act will be in line with the 1991 border modifications of Boris Yeltsin that left 90% Russian ethnics within the new borders at the time.
One reason for the delay is probably China, Brazil, and to a lesser extent India. While these three Westphalians have not strenuously objected to the redrawing borders, forcing citizenship could be viewed more seriously. Russia waiting till now for zElenkyi to destroy what little remained of Ukraine's reputation as a competent state has made it easier to sell that the incorporation of Ukrainian citizens into Russia is not a colonial abuse. (edit: a similar reason to why SMO remains an SMO and not war even after attacks on Russia proper. Hence Kiev looks civilized; if it were a full-scale war then Kiev would look 1945 Berlin. This soft approach is in part about managing the international narrative warfare).
I see nothing nefarious here at all. As you say, they aren't doing anything that any other country would do in the normal course of events.
There's nothing normal about this war though because it never should've occurred. But it did, and the U.S. is solely to blame.
Its normal for the U.S. to try to paint this as a nefarious act by Russia but Russia is only taking steps to protect its national security.
Ukrainians who've been graciously welcomed into Russia now have to take a side. This is the setup that the U.S. has established by saying that you're either for us or against us.
There's no deception on the part of Russia. They are merely adjusting to changing circumstances and that is what good leaders do.
"Many assumed that this had already happened some time ago, especially in the new regions" - including me. Thank you so much for this article. I was wondering what it was all about. So...yeah...I too am with you on the six month call. ☮
I guess this will cause more moral outrage in the west. But there will be no mention of the fact, that Ukraine joining NATO would have all sorts of permutations re visas and probably forcing to people topick a new home etc as per the remarkably accurate predictions in the Niet means Niet cable all those years ago.
“due to the necessity of imposing a new visa regime.
This, Aleksandr Konovalov, Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessment, argued, would become a boiling cauldron of anger
Probably you are right about the six months. And Russia is solidifying and expanding to where they want the new border to be now.
"This suggests that Russia expects a political settlement or at least an armistice within the next six months..."
Meh, a lot can ALSO be explained by the thesis that Russia does NOT expect a further normalisation and therefore proceeds to wrap things up and stop giving the West and Ukraine the false hope of a future settlement and peaceful coexistence.
I'll play devil's advocate and try to focus on the other side of the coin;
1) "..likely due to stereotypically slow bureaucracy and the state’s focus on waging the special operation."
I've been to Russia (as a matter of fact, I'm in Moscow now 👋) and yes, the bureaucracy is suffocating, but at the same time the bureaucrats are not the ones fighting in Ukraine. They are doing their b.s. paper shuffling exercises, regardless of whether the world is coming to an end or not. (Have you, as a foreigner, already registered your biometrics for SIM card? 🤡😃 That's my point... p.s. deadline is 30.06)
2) "If Putin didn’t get around to decreeing that this is finally done within less than six months..."
So basically they have been doing 'the square root of fvck-all' for 36 months (= 3 years) but now everything has to be completed in 6 months? It's unfortunately more of a typical "hurry-up-and-wait" example of a bureaucracy where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. I doubt this is due to a sudden armistice. An alternative explanation could be this: https://substack.com/home/post/p-159393266 😃
3) "From there, Ukraine could claim that Russia is “atoning for its guilty conscience of illegally occupying foreign land” by letting the locals over whom the state assumed responsibility “preserve their separate Ukrainian legal status”, thus serving as the pretext for Kiev to meddle in those lands after hostilities end. By mandating that they voluntarily legalize their presence in line with Russian law or be deported, Moscow neutralizes Kiev’s aforesaid claims, thus delegitimizing any post-conflict meddling on that basis."
No not really because the process is EITHER naturalisation to Russian citizenship OR by keeping (!) their Ukrainian citizenship if they have a job or are enrolled in an educational program. You already pointed this out yourself in the second paragraph: "They can do this by either applying for Russian citizenship via the simplified procedure for Ukrainian nationals that entered into force in summer 2022 or for residency by either proving legal employment or enrollment in a Russian education program."
If these people decide to keep their Ukrainian citizenship when they work or study in Russia, then Ukraine can still use the excuse to 'meddle' in Russia's affairs.
4) "In other words, this decree is meant to facilitate the incipient peace process by fortifying Russia’s legal claims to the four former Ukrainian regions that unified with it after September’s 2022 referenda, which reaffirms that Russia won’t cede these lands since they’re now being fully treated as integral territories."
I partly agree. Yes, it fortifies Russia's claims over those 4 (former) Ukrainian Oblasts, but I doubt that this will provide for a basis of an armistice. As a matter of fact, it will more probably encourage the Ukrainians (together with the European US Vassals) to fight on.
5) "That was already the case ever since the state assumed responsibility for them, but it’ll now be more strictly enforced as the situation begins normalizing, which will likely lead to a ramping up of the FSB’s counter-intelligence operations."
If the FSB is only now starting to ramp up counter-intelligence operations then they are seriously LATE to the party... Security here in Moscow has SERIOUSLY ramped up over the last few 5-6 months (in the metro, near the Red Square etc) and IMHO this is HARDLY a sign of a detente. If they are now (finally!) waking up and starting to look for Ukrainian sleeper cells in Russia ("...same locals might remain loyal to Ukraine even after legalizing their presence...") then IMHO they OBVIOUSLY are expecting more trouble ahead, again, hardly a sign of a future settlement.
IMHO this is yet another example of Russia more or less throwing in the towel and stopping the pretence of 'being the nice guy,' and instead CUTTING ties with Ukraine and formalising the incorporation of those 4 new Oblasts in the Russian Federation. Ukrainians in Russia will have to make a decision: 'either you are with us, or you are against us,' this is the way I interpret this latest move.
Anyway, time will tell... 😉
Russia’s new rules remind me the present situation in the U.S. with the REAL ID system. Every U.S. citizen who wants to board a domestic or international flight will have to have REAL ID or passport from May 7, 2025. A properly trained, docile citizen must visit a DMV office and offer Proof of documentation proving full legal name, date of birth, Social Security number, two proofs of residency, and lawful status. That also means the 20-30+ or who knows how many million illegal aliens will be deprived from flying.
The Ukraine rules are substantially harsher as noncompliance means mandatory dislocation. Harsher times, harsher rules. In the Ukrainian situation a substantial result will be a Russification of the new territories as they will try to eliminate the more radical Ukrainian segment. This experience goes back to the 1881 assassination of Alexander II that was followed by a plot against Alexander III in 1887. In the second act Lenin’s older brother Alexander Ul'ianov was executed for participation helping Lenin to radicalize toward 1917.
Considering that 10 to 20 million Ukrainians already left the country, the reminder of their population should have little problems moving out of Russian territories. The final results of this Russian act will be in line with the 1991 border modifications of Boris Yeltsin that left 90% Russian ethnics within the new borders at the time.
One reason for the delay is probably China, Brazil, and to a lesser extent India. While these three Westphalians have not strenuously objected to the redrawing borders, forcing citizenship could be viewed more seriously. Russia waiting till now for zElenkyi to destroy what little remained of Ukraine's reputation as a competent state has made it easier to sell that the incorporation of Ukrainian citizens into Russia is not a colonial abuse. (edit: a similar reason to why SMO remains an SMO and not war even after attacks on Russia proper. Hence Kiev looks civilized; if it were a full-scale war then Kiev would look 1945 Berlin. This soft approach is in part about managing the international narrative warfare).
Let's not forget the A3ov Ukrainians killed 14,000 ethnic Russians over an 8 year period BEFORE Putin invaded!
I see nothing nefarious here at all. As you say, they aren't doing anything that any other country would do in the normal course of events.
There's nothing normal about this war though because it never should've occurred. But it did, and the U.S. is solely to blame.
Its normal for the U.S. to try to paint this as a nefarious act by Russia but Russia is only taking steps to protect its national security.
Ukrainians who've been graciously welcomed into Russia now have to take a side. This is the setup that the U.S. has established by saying that you're either for us or against us.
There's no deception on the part of Russia. They are merely adjusting to changing circumstances and that is what good leaders do.
"Many assumed that this had already happened some time ago, especially in the new regions" - including me. Thank you so much for this article. I was wondering what it was all about. So...yeah...I too am with you on the six month call. ☮
I guess this will cause more moral outrage in the west. But there will be no mention of the fact, that Ukraine joining NATO would have all sorts of permutations re visas and probably forcing to people topick a new home etc as per the remarkably accurate predictions in the Niet means Niet cable all those years ago.
“due to the necessity of imposing a new visa regime.
This, Aleksandr Konovalov, Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessment, argued, would become a boiling cauldron of anger
and resentment among the local population”.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html