Why’d Slovakia Pledge To Assist With Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine?

Fico can’t realistically expect any relief from the EU pressure upon him if he threatened to obstruct the shipment of Ukrainian-destined arms through Slovakia after the conflict ends.

The return of Robert Fico to the Slovak premiership nearly two years ago saw his country reverse its policy towards Ukraine from supporting Western warmongering to emulating Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s policy of calling for a quick end to hostilities. Some might therefore be surprised to learn that Fico pledged in early September to assist with Western security guarantees for Ukraine, albeit only with regard to letting them use Slovakia’s transport infrastructure in connection with this.

While no Western leader has confirmed exactly what these might entail, nor is it clear whether there’s consensus about how to proceed in this respect, this analysis here points to prior reports to suggest that more arms, boots on the ground, and possibly even a no-fly zone might be in the cards. Fico declared that “Slovakia will not send any soldiers to Ukraine”, but facilitating the dispatch of others’ there could nullify its newfound neutrality, as could possibly hosting jets and air defenses for a Ukrainian no-fly zone.

He likely won’t agree to this if it’s done unilaterally without Russia’s approval, however, since he also added that “We need to negotiate security guarantees for Ukraine, we need to negotiate security guarantees for Russia. This should be one package.” Absent its approval as part of a political settlement to the Ukrainian Conflict, Slovakia probably won’t play any logistical role in the West’s security guarantees for Ukraine since that would violate his campaign promise to keep it out of this war.

At the same time, the reason why Fico pledged to assist with this under the aforesaid conditions is arguably due to the pressure that he’s come under from the EU, which Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed in late August has seen it try to depose Orban and Fico for their pro-peace policies. His declaration was therefore likely aimed at alleviating some of this pressure by showing that Slovakia will cooperate with Brussels – both the EU and NATO – on the Ukrainian file once peace finally returns there.

They might not curtail their campaign, and he could always impose limits on this cooperation such as refusing to host jets and air defenses for a Ukrainian no-fly zone, but the significance rests in his de facto affirmation of Slovakia as a loyal member of the West that hasn’t “gone rogue”. His country’s foreign policy, just like Hungary’s, is ultimately constrained by the fact that it’s a landlocked member of both the EU and NATO. Even if he wanted to “go rogue”, which he doesn’t, there’s only so much that he can do.

Fico and Orban are simply expressing principled dissent on policy within the legal bounds afforded to them by EU-NATO membership due to the West’s policy towards Ukraine harming their national interests. Once a peace deal is reached, and if the security guarantees that are agreed to involve at least more arms to Ukraine, then they’ll play the roles expected of them in the “military Schengen”. Whether they’ll let Western troops transit to Ukraine and/or host no-fly zone assets is a separate matter though.

All in all, Slovakia’s pledge to assist with Western security guarantee for Ukraine is pragmatic from the perspective of its national interests. Fico can’t realistically expect any relief from the EU pressure upon him if he threatened to obstruct the shipment of Ukrainian-destined arms through Slovakia after the conflict ends. Even if his policy declaration doesn’t change anything in this regard, it still dispels false perceptions that his country has “gone rogue”, thus discrediting the EU’s continued pressure campaign.