Why’d The US Raise The Terrorist Designation For A Group Of Anti-Chinese Militants In Pakistan?

One would think that the US would consider such a group to be an ally in its New Cold War with China.

The US’ systemic rivalry with China over the contours of the emerging world order has made many assume that it backs all opponents of the People’s Republic, from neighboring states with whom Beijing has territorial disputes to terrorist groups, yet a recent move just shattered this perception. The State Department abruptly raised the “Balochistan Liberation Army’s” (BLA) 2019 “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” designation to a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” amidst the US-Pakistani rapprochement.

The BLA is veritably a terrorist group whose last well-known attack was its deadly hijacking of the Jaffar Express earlier this spring, which followed an upsurge of other terrorist attacks over the past three years, including against projects connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is the flagship project of China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and was envisaged as giving it direct access to the Indian Ocean for preemptively mitigating the effects of any future US blockade of the Malacca Strait.

This series of megaprojects has stalled in recent years for a variety of reasons ranging from corruption to Pakistan’s political dysfunction since April 2022’s post-modern coup and especially the BLA’s spree of terrorist attacks afterwards which exploited the state’s new focus on crushing the opposition. Given the outsized role that the BLA has played in subverting CPEC, which the US hitherto turned a blind eye to for reasons of strategic convenience despite its existing terrorist designation, it should be a de facto US ally.

Instead, its terrorist designation was just raised, thus naturally prompting the question of why. The rapidly evolving regional and global contexts help answer that. Not only has the US entered into a rapprochement with Pakistan, but it’s also seeking one with China too as proven by Trump’s eagerness to reach a trade deal and his muted criticism of it as of late. This could respectively reshape the region and the world alike if these dual rapprochements successfully derail India’s rise as a Great Power.

By raising the BLA’s terrorist designation, the US is signaling that it’ll stop opposing CPEC as part of what might be a grand compromise with China, with this concession being aimed at reviving BRI’s flagship so as to further strengthen the Sino-Pak alliance against India. Getting CPEC back on track could also offset the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement since it was CPEC’s announcement a decade ago that sparked the latest phase of their rivalry due to it transiting through Indian-claimed but Pakistani-controlled territory.

The grand strategic goal that the US is pursuing is the “G2”/“Chimerica” scenario of dividing the world with China after it failed to restore unipolarity, which requires containing, subordinating, and possibly even “Balkanizing” India since its rise as a Great Power would ruin these plans. Indian analyst Surya Kanegaonkar suspects that the BLA’s new designation could precede a US-Pakistani attempt to place India on the Financial Action Task Force on the pretext that it backs this group. He might be proven right.

All told, the importance of the BLA’s new terrorist designation is that it corroborates claims that the US is using its new rapprochement with Pakistan to advance a more globally significant one with China, both of which are driven in large part by their shared interest in derailing India’s rise as a Great Power. Whether or not the US-Pakistani rapprochement holds, a US-Chinese one is secured, and/or India is contained, the fact is that the US is attempting another powerplay, which follows its latest against Russia.