The “politically inconvenient” truth is that the US is unilaterally reshaping the world order in a bid to restore unipolarity, and regardless of one’s opinion about this, it’s objectively achieved some tangible progress as of late.
How do you think the Chinese-US summit at the end of the month will be impacted if the US is still engaged in its war on Iran? Does it change Chinese calculus at all?
It really depends: China might postpone the summit on some pretext to avoid the horrible optics of hosting Trump as a VIP guest while he utterly destroys one of China's top energy partners; it might go through with the summit but not sign any trade deal, instead agreeing on relatively more minor things but having candid talks with Trump about the most sensitive details and then maybe (keyword) agreeing to a trade deal; or it might end up agreeing to what I'd expect to be a lopsided trade deal but not a crippling one.
In my opinion, the current US agenda is simply organised around the midterms.
If the Republicans lose the midterms, Trump will need to take even more brutal swings. That's the only thing we can expect. Trump is on the ropes with his fan base.
Not a single one of his promises has come true so far.
So far, the only short-term effects have been harsher boomerang effects for the US itself.
-
Isn't it true that although the US has its long-term Great Reset agenda, each president only has two windows of opportunity during their term in office?
Trump is banking on power play. But according to my "two-window theory", every power play continues at least twice, even without a power card in hand.
-
Accordingly, China's reluctance could be aimed at delaying the timing of such a summit in order to simply negotiate much better terms during a "no-power phase".
If Trump loses the midterms, which will be entirely in the BRICS' interest, MAGA will be dead.
As far as the Democrats are concerned, I share this view.
However, I consider these midterms to be particularly significant this time around. If there is no switch to the Democrats, Vance will continue to govern with a good chance of eight more years.
But if the Republicans lose the midterms, the media power will be against them. I think it must have been Reagan who managed to turn the tide after losing the midterms.
And I recall hearing a comment from a correspondent during Obama's term who said that this turnaround after the midterms is actually a domain of the Democrats.
Sure. That's a bit like reading tea leaves before Trump's election victory last year. But I take the view that Trump's power would have evaporated after losing the midterms.
Hardly any other POTUS has scored as many points with hot air as Trump. Although I was happy with his victory. That's why I take this position.
I think that he's going to continue dialing up the pain until he gets more of what he wants and that Iran is unable to harm the US in anywhere near the same way.
China has a long direct border with Russia. USA will not be able to control that. The same goes for Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and N Korea.
The most radical among the woke constantly dream of a student uprising in Ulaanbaatar. Although this could be quelled at any time, it is also a fire that should not be underestimated.
-
But isn't it Pakistan that has been buying more and more US weapons for several years now, which is what gave rise to the idea of an alliance with the Saudis?
Conversely, considering the fact that Iran's S400s from Russia remained grounded during both attacks on the 25th and 26th, I imagine it would be easy for the US to bring Pakistan into line simply by restricting the software.
-
Of all the nuclear powers, Pakistan is the biggest question mark for me. Laos, Vietnam... the US probably won't achieve much there. They are wired differently from history.
Trump don't like long military operations. He likes what is shining, show to the world untill where he is good, smart, brillant and a true winner. And then he search another way.
He was sure of a quick regime change( a little bit like Poutine 4 years ago) but it failed.
Israël don't give a shit of nuclear bomb, of regime change or civil war. It only want to destroy Iran like Irak , Libya or Syria did.
Israel is not interested in destroying Iran - just in regime change. Before 1979, Iran was an important Israeli ally. With most of W Europe becoming Muslim in the coming decades finding new allies somewhere else is an important point on Israeli agenda.
If you've seen that Maroccans, Egyptians, Jordanians, Émiratis, Saoudis, Oman, sunnites Libanese and current Syrian regim are hostile to Israël, tell me when and how their acts can prive it
All of these are too poor or militarily too weak to project power. France when it turns Muslim (either already or soon), will still project some power. Simply because there will be residual technological prowess for some time.
Well, the truth is that the USA is now engaged in a very unpopular war against Iran with Israel. Not only is Trump losing favorability at home, but Iran has been inflicting huge losses on US bases in the entire region and on Israel as well. As a result, the USA stands naked before the Gulf States and the rest of the world. Its mighty military is being shown for what it is, a paper tiger, and the US influence around the world is evaporating. The other truth is the Epstein thingy that will not go away. It seems the news in the USA of the Epstein files and congressional hearings are bigger news than the war. Is that why this war is being called "the Epstein War?" Finally, the entire world knows that the US economy is on the verge of collapse. I maintain that Russia and China see this very clearly and therefore are patiently awaiting the collapse. Re India, I lost all respect for Modi when he went to Israel and kissed Bibi's ass. That was so disgusting. Sad that Modi sold out and embarrassed the people of India. They are the ones that will suffer.
I honestly don't believe that the US economy is on the verge of collapse (I've heard that my whole life), and I just don't understand how Trump's capture of Maduro, consequent proxy control over Venezuela's energy industry, and cutting off Iran's oil exports to China somehow harm US state interests as perceived from the ruling unipolar-aspiring elite.
The Epstein Files have had no impact on foreign policy, they might affect the midterms most likely, but they're not doing anything to complicate Trump 2.0's foreign policy. I also don't know why there's this notion that Trump would release the files if they were supposedly so damaging to him and not just keep them classified till the end of his term.
As for paper tigers, while I wouldn't go as far as calling Iran that, it's much closer to one than the US is. Iran is almost a nationwide bombing range for the USAF and IAF right now. Its navy is destroyed. Its missile launches have staggeringly dropped since the start of the conflict. I genuinely can't grasp why some people see that as victory over the US.
That said, US marine is far away, US and Israeli planes stay far from Iran territory, Iran regime has not(yet) collapse, even CNN says the situation is quiet in Teheran, US is forced to shut its ambassies in Gulf, its bases in Gulf are daily pounded and very high value materials have been destroyed, Tel Aviv and Israël is shelled daily and Israelis are living in shelters.
It's not very wonderful for the best ever military force of the history of the galaxy.
That can change tomorrow.
But for now, it's far from a great victory.
Absolutely none purposes have been reached .
Nobody who is not a moron was able to pretend that Iran could victoriously confront such a 1000 times stronger coalition. Nobody and especially Iran planners.
Seemingly, they prepared something else.
It's far too soon to sing the Iran's defeat.
Don't forget those who sing the collapse of Ukraine for 4 years.
Time and again, when I read about India’s position on the world stage, I come back to the axiom about the reed that bends with the wind not being the one that gets broken off…
We are to believe that Indians wouldn't have bought Russian oil now without US permission, given the circumstances. I don't believe that for a second. Also, I cannot see what leverage Trump has on China with the oil stranded in the Persian Gulf. He is holding the entire world hostage, including the Americans as well: https://substack.com/home/post/p-189923832
I don't think that Iran will relent, which could ultimately lead Israel to nuke Iran. At that point, Israel and US will become pariah states and Trump will be toast and likely face impeachment and prison.
When you write about American foreign policy, you need to pay attention to some domestic happenings that impact it. For example, you mentioned Trump's threat to tariff India, yet his tariffs have already been struck down by the Supreme Court. He literally can't deliver on his threats, yet foreigners, even foreign leaders, keep caving to threats that no longer exist.
I suppose I should be relieved that Indian leadership is almost as idiotic as mine, but it still comes as a surprise.
Even Trump realizes that the whole world will obey every one of his wishes. He is easing here & there for his own good. Trump realizes that the world is against his war in Iran which he is enlickly to win. We did not win in Vietnam after losing 58,000 men. How many will it take to win against Iran????
Note that only the US is making such statements whether it is "India is reducing Russian oil imports" or "we are waiving sanctions for N days."
I would suggest that it's more than just oil. The US is trying to spread disinformation that India is under Trump's sway. A long term bigger problem for the US is the transport corridor between Russia-Iran-India-China. And BRICS apart from that. Iran happens to be in the middle of the former, and a part of the latter.
Modi is playing all sides. As our Foreign Minister Dr Jaishankar has said, we are not on any one's fence or side, we are on our ground.
"The new world order that it envisages has India playing a prominent geo-economic and geopolitical role.." - Shot in the dark, but someone still needs to play postman, and India's airlines have gone very quiet.
How do you think the Chinese-US summit at the end of the month will be impacted if the US is still engaged in its war on Iran? Does it change Chinese calculus at all?
It really depends: China might postpone the summit on some pretext to avoid the horrible optics of hosting Trump as a VIP guest while he utterly destroys one of China's top energy partners; it might go through with the summit but not sign any trade deal, instead agreeing on relatively more minor things but having candid talks with Trump about the most sensitive details and then maybe (keyword) agreeing to a trade deal; or it might end up agreeing to what I'd expect to be a lopsided trade deal but not a crippling one.
In my opinion, the current US agenda is simply organised around the midterms.
If the Republicans lose the midterms, Trump will need to take even more brutal swings. That's the only thing we can expect. Trump is on the ropes with his fan base.
Not a single one of his promises has come true so far.
So far, the only short-term effects have been harsher boomerang effects for the US itself.
-
Isn't it true that although the US has its long-term Great Reset agenda, each president only has two windows of opportunity during their term in office?
Trump is banking on power play. But according to my "two-window theory", every power play continues at least twice, even without a power card in hand.
-
Accordingly, China's reluctance could be aimed at delaying the timing of such a summit in order to simply negotiate much better terms during a "no-power phase".
If Trump loses the midterms, which will be entirely in the BRICS' interest, MAGA will be dead.
Would you agree with this logic?
MAGA won't be dead - after the mid-terms, there is 2028. At the moment, the Dems are acting as the pro-PRC party.
As far as the Democrats are concerned, I share this view.
However, I consider these midterms to be particularly significant this time around. If there is no switch to the Democrats, Vance will continue to govern with a good chance of eight more years.
But if the Republicans lose the midterms, the media power will be against them. I think it must have been Reagan who managed to turn the tide after losing the midterms.
And I recall hearing a comment from a correspondent during Obama's term who said that this turnaround after the midterms is actually a domain of the Democrats.
Sure. That's a bit like reading tea leaves before Trump's election victory last year. But I take the view that Trump's power would have evaporated after losing the midterms.
Hardly any other POTUS has scored as many points with hot air as Trump. Although I was happy with his victory. That's why I take this position.
Now everyone gets shown the DNA of USA open.
Before the 2026 Iran war, I was quite certain Dems will win midterms. At the moment, I am no longer sure.
We'll see.
I think that he's going to continue dialing up the pain until he gets more of what he wants and that Iran is unable to harm the US in anywhere near the same way.
Andrew, in what way does Iran harm USA?
Iran used to patronize a formidable resistance network in occupation-era Iraq that was responsible for killing and maiming many American troops.
That's gone now, as is most of the "Resistance Axis", and Iran didn't actively try to harm the US prior to the latest war.
In the unfolding context, it can bomb the US' regional allies and its bases on their territory, but it can't harm the US like the US can harm Iran.
Meine Meinung: Den Iran nicht. Doch Russlands und Chinas Handelswege.
Sie wollen diese Handelswege nur zulassen, wenn die USA sie kontrollieren.
Wie beim TRIPP-Deal, zu dem ich attestieren muss, dass Moskau hier kläglich versagt hat.
China has a long direct border with Russia. USA will not be able to control that. The same goes for Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and N Korea.
I would like to sign.
The most radical among the woke constantly dream of a student uprising in Ulaanbaatar. Although this could be quelled at any time, it is also a fire that should not be underestimated.
-
But isn't it Pakistan that has been buying more and more US weapons for several years now, which is what gave rise to the idea of an alliance with the Saudis?
Conversely, considering the fact that Iran's S400s from Russia remained grounded during both attacks on the 25th and 26th, I imagine it would be easy for the US to bring Pakistan into line simply by restricting the software.
-
Of all the nuclear powers, Pakistan is the biggest question mark for me. Laos, Vietnam... the US probably won't achieve much there. They are wired differently from history.
It's the only purpose of Israel. Destroying Iran.
Trump don't like long military operations. He likes what is shining, show to the world untill where he is good, smart, brillant and a true winner. And then he search another way.
He was sure of a quick regime change( a little bit like Poutine 4 years ago) but it failed.
Israël don't give a shit of nuclear bomb, of regime change or civil war. It only want to destroy Iran like Irak , Libya or Syria did.
Has Trump been tricked by Israël in that mess?
Israel is not interested in destroying Iran - just in regime change. Before 1979, Iran was an important Israeli ally. With most of W Europe becoming Muslim in the coming decades finding new allies somewhere else is an important point on Israeli agenda.
If you've seen that Maroccans, Egyptians, Jordanians, Émiratis, Saoudis, Oman, sunnites Libanese and current Syrian regim are hostile to Israël, tell me when and how their acts can prive it
All of these are too poor or militarily too weak to project power. France when it turns Muslim (either already or soon), will still project some power. Simply because there will be residual technological prowess for some time.
Well, the truth is that the USA is now engaged in a very unpopular war against Iran with Israel. Not only is Trump losing favorability at home, but Iran has been inflicting huge losses on US bases in the entire region and on Israel as well. As a result, the USA stands naked before the Gulf States and the rest of the world. Its mighty military is being shown for what it is, a paper tiger, and the US influence around the world is evaporating. The other truth is the Epstein thingy that will not go away. It seems the news in the USA of the Epstein files and congressional hearings are bigger news than the war. Is that why this war is being called "the Epstein War?" Finally, the entire world knows that the US economy is on the verge of collapse. I maintain that Russia and China see this very clearly and therefore are patiently awaiting the collapse. Re India, I lost all respect for Modi when he went to Israel and kissed Bibi's ass. That was so disgusting. Sad that Modi sold out and embarrassed the people of India. They are the ones that will suffer.
I honestly don't believe that the US economy is on the verge of collapse (I've heard that my whole life), and I just don't understand how Trump's capture of Maduro, consequent proxy control over Venezuela's energy industry, and cutting off Iran's oil exports to China somehow harm US state interests as perceived from the ruling unipolar-aspiring elite.
The Epstein Files have had no impact on foreign policy, they might affect the midterms most likely, but they're not doing anything to complicate Trump 2.0's foreign policy. I also don't know why there's this notion that Trump would release the files if they were supposedly so damaging to him and not just keep them classified till the end of his term.
As for paper tigers, while I wouldn't go as far as calling Iran that, it's much closer to one than the US is. Iran is almost a nationwide bombing range for the USAF and IAF right now. Its navy is destroyed. Its missile launches have staggeringly dropped since the start of the conflict. I genuinely can't grasp why some people see that as victory over the US.
Ok.
However.
That said, US marine is far away, US and Israeli planes stay far from Iran territory, Iran regime has not(yet) collapse, even CNN says the situation is quiet in Teheran, US is forced to shut its ambassies in Gulf, its bases in Gulf are daily pounded and very high value materials have been destroyed, Tel Aviv and Israël is shelled daily and Israelis are living in shelters.
It's not very wonderful for the best ever military force of the history of the galaxy.
That can change tomorrow.
But for now, it's far from a great victory.
Absolutely none purposes have been reached .
Nobody who is not a moron was able to pretend that Iran could victoriously confront such a 1000 times stronger coalition. Nobody and especially Iran planners.
Seemingly, they prepared something else.
It's far too soon to sing the Iran's defeat.
Don't forget those who sing the collapse of Ukraine for 4 years.
You have no idea what you're talking about. You have also no understanding of how we operate.
I will put this down to the usual European binary thinking: "with us or against us."
Having said that, here's a pointer to the ruling party's mouthpiece clarifying the current situation.
https://x.com/amitmalviya/status/2029116243761074625
It's true, I absolutely don't know the Indian mentality.
Time and again, when I read about India’s position on the world stage, I come back to the axiom about the reed that bends with the wind not being the one that gets broken off…
US Treasure Secretary Scott *Bessent*, not Bennett.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
We are to believe that Indians wouldn't have bought Russian oil now without US permission, given the circumstances. I don't believe that for a second. Also, I cannot see what leverage Trump has on China with the oil stranded in the Persian Gulf. He is holding the entire world hostage, including the Americans as well: https://substack.com/home/post/p-189923832
I don't think that Iran will relent, which could ultimately lead Israel to nuke Iran. At that point, Israel and US will become pariah states and Trump will be toast and likely face impeachment and prison.
What was the point of BRICS again please ?
When you write about American foreign policy, you need to pay attention to some domestic happenings that impact it. For example, you mentioned Trump's threat to tariff India, yet his tariffs have already been struck down by the Supreme Court. He literally can't deliver on his threats, yet foreigners, even foreign leaders, keep caving to threats that no longer exist.
I suppose I should be relieved that Indian leadership is almost as idiotic as mine, but it still comes as a surprise.
Even Trump realizes that the whole world will obey every one of his wishes. He is easing here & there for his own good. Trump realizes that the world is against his war in Iran which he is enlickly to win. We did not win in Vietnam after losing 58,000 men. How many will it take to win against Iran????
Note that only the US is making such statements whether it is "India is reducing Russian oil imports" or "we are waiving sanctions for N days."
I would suggest that it's more than just oil. The US is trying to spread disinformation that India is under Trump's sway. A long term bigger problem for the US is the transport corridor between Russia-Iran-India-China. And BRICS apart from that. Iran happens to be in the middle of the former, and a part of the latter.
Modi is playing all sides. As our Foreign Minister Dr Jaishankar has said, we are not on any one's fence or side, we are on our ground.
No Andrew, I don't agree with you.
You can not be half pregnant and there is no different kind of pregnancy.
You're pregnant or not.
You're sovereign or not.
It's not a matter of russian vision of sovereignty, or indian or papu.
And no, multipolarity is not caving in to US order depending it's your interest. That is not multipolarity, it's colonial submission.
India has no more guts and honour than Europeans.
And no, it's not a first place for India it's just a role of cipaye, colonial auxiliaries.
India was and remains Gunja Din.
Once more, I notice that concerning Poland or India, you're far from as objective than for the other topics.
You have the right to think what you want but concerning those two countries, for me, you're not lucid and too personally invested.
India under Modi is like that. But no other government will come up to expose them as they are.
They will remain colonial subjects, and pretend they are not.
"The new world order that it envisages has India playing a prominent geo-economic and geopolitical role.." - Shot in the dark, but someone still needs to play postman, and India's airlines have gone very quiet.