"...but there’s no credible basis for alleging that India is conspiring with its Chinese rival to internationalize the yuan..."
Yuan may not become the official common currency anytime soon, but the Russian Federation has been selling all of it natural gas for rubles since 2022. Russia also sells most of its oil to China and India, for rupees and yuan. That, oil and gas in total, is probably well over $100 billion/year worth of stuff. If this doesn't affect the status of the dollar, I don't know what would.
And the main reason Russians do it is the sanctions. I think it's funny that pres. Trump is trying to fix this by threatening them with more sanctions (in the form of tariffs this time).
Unfortunately, he is going ahead with the sanctions on Canada and Mexico. This will be devastating for Canada and Mexico, but it will also harm the US economy. This is absolute craziness.
Why devastating for Canada and Mexico? The tariffs are payed by the Americans. And the tariffed products will be harder to replaced in quantity and quality.
As for the heavy Canadian crude that the US is puting tariffs on (10%), the US refineries cannot work without, cannot change (very time consuming and costly) and won't change, because this is how diesel and asphalt and other derivates that the US needs in order to function. So this will be inelastic for the US and there will be inflation.
Reminds me of first years of Reagan, when he slashed taxes only to find himself in a deeper and deeeper hole until he had to raise back taxes. Trump is a moron.
Tariffs only work when one's country has a manufacturing base to protect while it is being built up, like they did when Alexander Hamilton was around. Now, the US doesn't have much of a manufacturing base left because our capitalists moved most of it to other countries to lower labor costs.
All they'll do now, with China anyway, is to raise prices for American consumers, which will be jacked up even more by corporate greed because inflation. I don't know about Russia, but China is definitely prepared for this if it happens.
Tariffs are a sure-fire way to create domestic social unrest. We'll just have to wait and see what happens, which is what I imagine Putin and Xi are doing right now.
What you're saying does make sense, but we're still a bit confused about how Trump sees BRICS. There are questions about Donald Trump's understanding of global economic dynamics, like when he keeps talking about a hypothetical "BRICS currency" (which isn't really being discussed) and his mistaken belief that Spain is part of BRICS, but his broader claims about the U.S. dollar's strength are valid. Even though BRICS nations are advocating for "de-dollarization" to reduce reliance on the USD in commodity trading and other transactions, the dollar's dominance has only grown. Recent SWIFT data from August 2024 shows the dollar now accounts for 49.1% of global payments, a 12-year peak, which shows it's still the top currency, even as things change politically and economically around the world. But Trump's credibility is being called into question because of factual errors, like exaggerated estimates of Russian military casualties and unclear sourcing for his claims. This raises concerns about the expertise (or honesty and loyalty?!?) of his advisory team. We're not sure if it's a tactical behavior or a real lack of information, but he seems so out of touch about BRICS.
The SWIFT statistics are no longer relevant if they do not include the growing portion of global commerce outside of its system, by definition not in USD. E.g. Russia is blocked out of the SWIFT, so all its import and export with China, in rubles and yuan, or with India in rupees and rubles, etc would not be included.
We understand what you are saying, but trade between China and Russia is like trade between the US and the UK. It is a big deal, but it is only a small part of global trade. However, even leading figures such as Putin and India have said that they do not want to dismantle the dollar, because it is an advantage for them too. So, although there is a lot of detail, we think the SWIFT statistics are quite relevant.
Currently, the US's two main exports are "Dollars" (currently no more than an inflationary "DEBT" instrument) and "WEAPONS" (Homicidal devices).
Other than a surplus of food production, there is no industrial production in the USA worth mentioning.
The USA (the DC establishment) is bluffing. Other than Debt and Homicide, Washington, Wall Street and the US labor force bring very little to the table.
The US has very few (if any) National Corporations, most today are multinationals.
At some point, something has to give.
How many more children’s arms and legs are to be blown off?
Remember what old Smokey said, "Only you can prevent...".
How do we prevent the continuing deterioration of the United States political/economy?
How do we get our government to institute Bankruptcy Reorganization and Reenact Glass-Seagull legislation?
This is sloppy analysis. To properly discuss about these issues one would need to assess the traded goods and balances and probably realize that because the US is not the manufacturing heavy weight it used to be, countries actually need to get their goods from somewhere, no?! Same with many raw materials, which Russia sells, or other intermediary materials.
And the bilateral trade between countries that do not involve US shouldn't be of any concern to the US. Also, Trump doesn't seem to consider that countries started using their own currencies in trade because of the US sanctions.
So if the sanctions continue, the trade outside the US dollar will continue. ANd it will continue regardless of the US actions.
If I were an American, I would have voted for Trump with both my hands. However, I wonder how long Trump can go on with threatening other countries and ordering them about. There are many people in the world who genuinely like America and Americans - rightly or wrongly. It's one of the pillars of American soft power. If Trump continues on the same path, this pillar will break down sooner or later.
The battle for Bakhmut took 9 months or so to conclude (at least for now). Similar-sized towns/cities can fall much faster now at lower casualty, and sometimes even less damages. The initial paces of BRICS will be slow, must be slow, and had better be slow. But that does not mean it has no future. I think a common currency for BRICS is a bad idea. The best solution is to use respective national currencies. If that cannot be achieved, then any arrangement agreeable to both parties can be used, including USD. The purpose of BRICS is NOT to move from USD-only worldwide trade to a USD-banned trade. If people want to trade in USD, that should be fine. If KSA wants India to pay for oil by exporting fresh vegetables to KSA, that is KSA internal business. If BRICS has any intention to de-dollarize, I think the key is to make the ruling elites of KSA feel safe and secure, while protecting their stored wealth. The USA has done great damage to the USD by destroying the wealth-storage aspect of the USD.
Trump make a big mistake His mad because USA have big trade deficits with BRICS and EU countries The reason is that USA don’t have that dominance they use to have and their economy is poor. They have more than 34.000 trillion dollars in debt and it’s rising’s. Trumps politics will only make the debt bigger. The reason EU don’t buy US agricultural products is because they are filled up with chemicals and are genetically modified which not allowed in EU. That’s also why so many US citizens are fat sick and have diabetes EU don’t want US cars because they can’t compete with European cars. Many US products are poor quality. Instead of old fashioned tariffs Trump should negotiate trade agreements with other countries There are no winners in trade wars only losers USA are less than 4% of the world’s population and the days they could dominate threaten and punish other countries are over. Trumps trade politics will heard the world economy and it will not make America great and the US consumers will pay a high price for his stupid behavior Trump still believes that USA are the worlds super power but it’s a broken poor empire. If he want to make America great again he could stop all US wars Close their more than 900 military bases around the world and start negotiating and cooperates with rest of the world
Call me naive but it should be nobody's business when any nation ,country ,decides to trade using any means including using their existing currencies . The trade with the US will be in USD ,the trade with India in rupees ,etc.etc. i.e ,you have chickens and I want eggs ,to put it simply .
As a Canadian ,having followed geopolitical affairs across the world ,I am of the opinion that the president of the US is using blackmail to force Canada to join the US as a 51st state by using the tariffs .I do believe that he has said that ,any attempt by Canada to reciprocate will be met with upping the tariffs. So ,blackmail it is . My opinion ,if a referendum was held today ,to join the US, Canadian would respond with a qualitative NO .
We’re already the 51st state. We lost our military and economic sovereignty many years ago. The only reason British Columbia isn’t American (like Alaska) is because of the Canadian Pacific Railway.
Brics will be introducing the mBridge crypto exchange which enables member countries to trade in their OWN currencies. Member countries that trade with the USRegime will still do so in $ USD regardless. OIL trading as an example could now be executed say in pesos to roubles without having to hold $USD fiat as was the case previously.
"The reality is that BRICS hasn’t achieved anything tangible in the decade since it agreed to create the New Development Bank in 2014, with even last October’s Kazan Summit falling flat despite the unprecedented hype that preceded it as explained in detail here back then."
BRICS is the diplomatic equivalent of a dorm room bull session. Thus an easy target and opportunity to declare victory.
"...but there’s no credible basis for alleging that India is conspiring with its Chinese rival to internationalize the yuan..."
Yuan may not become the official common currency anytime soon, but the Russian Federation has been selling all of it natural gas for rubles since 2022. Russia also sells most of its oil to China and India, for rupees and yuan. That, oil and gas in total, is probably well over $100 billion/year worth of stuff. If this doesn't affect the status of the dollar, I don't know what would.
And the main reason Russians do it is the sanctions. I think it's funny that pres. Trump is trying to fix this by threatening them with more sanctions (in the form of tariffs this time).
...there's a good chance, of course, all this tough talk is entirely for the domestic audience.
Unfortunately, he is going ahead with the sanctions on Canada and Mexico. This will be devastating for Canada and Mexico, but it will also harm the US economy. This is absolute craziness.
Why devastating for Canada and Mexico? The tariffs are payed by the Americans. And the tariffed products will be harder to replaced in quantity and quality.
As for the heavy Canadian crude that the US is puting tariffs on (10%), the US refineries cannot work without, cannot change (very time consuming and costly) and won't change, because this is how diesel and asphalt and other derivates that the US needs in order to function. So this will be inelastic for the US and there will be inflation.
Reminds me of first years of Reagan, when he slashed taxes only to find himself in a deeper and deeeper hole until he had to raise back taxes. Trump is a moron.
Trump’s domestic enemies can use that loudmouth rhetoric to paint him into a corner.
Tariffs only work when one's country has a manufacturing base to protect while it is being built up, like they did when Alexander Hamilton was around. Now, the US doesn't have much of a manufacturing base left because our capitalists moved most of it to other countries to lower labor costs.
All they'll do now, with China anyway, is to raise prices for American consumers, which will be jacked up even more by corporate greed because inflation. I don't know about Russia, but China is definitely prepared for this if it happens.
Tariffs are a sure-fire way to create domestic social unrest. We'll just have to wait and see what happens, which is what I imagine Putin and Xi are doing right now.
What you're saying does make sense, but we're still a bit confused about how Trump sees BRICS. There are questions about Donald Trump's understanding of global economic dynamics, like when he keeps talking about a hypothetical "BRICS currency" (which isn't really being discussed) and his mistaken belief that Spain is part of BRICS, but his broader claims about the U.S. dollar's strength are valid. Even though BRICS nations are advocating for "de-dollarization" to reduce reliance on the USD in commodity trading and other transactions, the dollar's dominance has only grown. Recent SWIFT data from August 2024 shows the dollar now accounts for 49.1% of global payments, a 12-year peak, which shows it's still the top currency, even as things change politically and economically around the world. But Trump's credibility is being called into question because of factual errors, like exaggerated estimates of Russian military casualties and unclear sourcing for his claims. This raises concerns about the expertise (or honesty and loyalty?!?) of his advisory team. We're not sure if it's a tactical behavior or a real lack of information, but he seems so out of touch about BRICS.
The SWIFT statistics are no longer relevant if they do not include the growing portion of global commerce outside of its system, by definition not in USD. E.g. Russia is blocked out of the SWIFT, so all its import and export with China, in rubles and yuan, or with India in rupees and rubles, etc would not be included.
We understand what you are saying, but trade between China and Russia is like trade between the US and the UK. It is a big deal, but it is only a small part of global trade. However, even leading figures such as Putin and India have said that they do not want to dismantle the dollar, because it is an advantage for them too. So, although there is a lot of detail, we think the SWIFT statistics are quite relevant.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Yes I have heard another leader of another country state that ,"not worry about the US we control the US ". Not a hard search to find out who that is.
Currently, the US's two main exports are "Dollars" (currently no more than an inflationary "DEBT" instrument) and "WEAPONS" (Homicidal devices).
Other than a surplus of food production, there is no industrial production in the USA worth mentioning.
The USA (the DC establishment) is bluffing. Other than Debt and Homicide, Washington, Wall Street and the US labor force bring very little to the table.
The US has very few (if any) National Corporations, most today are multinationals.
At some point, something has to give.
How many more children’s arms and legs are to be blown off?
Remember what old Smokey said, "Only you can prevent...".
How do we prevent the continuing deterioration of the United States political/economy?
How do we get our government to institute Bankruptcy Reorganization and Reenact Glass-Seagull legislation?
That was great until the Glass stymied the inattentive Seagull.
This is sloppy analysis. To properly discuss about these issues one would need to assess the traded goods and balances and probably realize that because the US is not the manufacturing heavy weight it used to be, countries actually need to get their goods from somewhere, no?! Same with many raw materials, which Russia sells, or other intermediary materials.
And the bilateral trade between countries that do not involve US shouldn't be of any concern to the US. Also, Trump doesn't seem to consider that countries started using their own currencies in trade because of the US sanctions.
So if the sanctions continue, the trade outside the US dollar will continue. ANd it will continue regardless of the US actions.
If I were an American, I would have voted for Trump with both my hands. However, I wonder how long Trump can go on with threatening other countries and ordering them about. There are many people in the world who genuinely like America and Americans - rightly or wrongly. It's one of the pillars of American soft power. If Trump continues on the same path, this pillar will break down sooner or later.
If someone likes USA It means It doesn't understand anything about history, geopolitics and state/class dialectics.
Venal, vapid and hooked on glitz & hoopla?
That makes you a delusional idiot.
Totally inappropriate comment, Jasmine…
The battle for Bakhmut took 9 months or so to conclude (at least for now). Similar-sized towns/cities can fall much faster now at lower casualty, and sometimes even less damages. The initial paces of BRICS will be slow, must be slow, and had better be slow. But that does not mean it has no future. I think a common currency for BRICS is a bad idea. The best solution is to use respective national currencies. If that cannot be achieved, then any arrangement agreeable to both parties can be used, including USD. The purpose of BRICS is NOT to move from USD-only worldwide trade to a USD-banned trade. If people want to trade in USD, that should be fine. If KSA wants India to pay for oil by exporting fresh vegetables to KSA, that is KSA internal business. If BRICS has any intention to de-dollarize, I think the key is to make the ruling elites of KSA feel safe and secure, while protecting their stored wealth. The USA has done great damage to the USD by destroying the wealth-storage aspect of the USD.
Trump make a big mistake His mad because USA have big trade deficits with BRICS and EU countries The reason is that USA don’t have that dominance they use to have and their economy is poor. They have more than 34.000 trillion dollars in debt and it’s rising’s. Trumps politics will only make the debt bigger. The reason EU don’t buy US agricultural products is because they are filled up with chemicals and are genetically modified which not allowed in EU. That’s also why so many US citizens are fat sick and have diabetes EU don’t want US cars because they can’t compete with European cars. Many US products are poor quality. Instead of old fashioned tariffs Trump should negotiate trade agreements with other countries There are no winners in trade wars only losers USA are less than 4% of the world’s population and the days they could dominate threaten and punish other countries are over. Trumps trade politics will heard the world economy and it will not make America great and the US consumers will pay a high price for his stupid behavior Trump still believes that USA are the worlds super power but it’s a broken poor empire. If he want to make America great again he could stop all US wars Close their more than 900 military bases around the world and start negotiating and cooperates with rest of the world
Call me naive but it should be nobody's business when any nation ,country ,decides to trade using any means including using their existing currencies . The trade with the US will be in USD ,the trade with India in rupees ,etc.etc. i.e ,you have chickens and I want eggs ,to put it simply .
As a Canadian ,having followed geopolitical affairs across the world ,I am of the opinion that the president of the US is using blackmail to force Canada to join the US as a 51st state by using the tariffs .I do believe that he has said that ,any attempt by Canada to reciprocate will be met with upping the tariffs. So ,blackmail it is . My opinion ,if a referendum was held today ,to join the US, Canadian would respond with a qualitative NO .
Désolé Guy,
We’re already the 51st state. We lost our military and economic sovereignty many years ago. The only reason British Columbia isn’t American (like Alaska) is because of the Canadian Pacific Railway.
Brics will be introducing the mBridge crypto exchange which enables member countries to trade in their OWN currencies. Member countries that trade with the USRegime will still do so in $ USD regardless. OIL trading as an example could now be executed say in pesos to roubles without having to hold $USD fiat as was the case previously.
"The reality is that BRICS hasn’t achieved anything tangible in the decade since it agreed to create the New Development Bank in 2014, with even last October’s Kazan Summit falling flat despite the unprecedented hype that preceded it as explained in detail here back then."
BRICS is the diplomatic equivalent of a dorm room bull session. Thus an easy target and opportunity to declare victory.
"BRICS hasnt achieved anything tangible since 2014..."....parallel universe?
In 2024 USD constituted 54% of global currency trades trending down, while BRICS was 34% trending up.
Get a grip.....4.8 billion pop. cannot be held down....
Goofy. Not understand this thinking