Why’s It So Important That Belarus Tipped Poland Off About A Potential Terrorist Plot?

The Belarusian and Polish security services have clearly resumed some limited form of cooperation, which could advance the cause of regional stability if this is coordinated with Moscow and isn’t part of a plot by Washington to divide them.

An extraordinary development took place in Belarusian-Polish ties in late July after the former tipped the latter off about a potential terrorist plot. According to former deep cover KGB spy Roman Protasevich, Belarusian anti-government activist Denis Dashkevich planned to hire Ukrainians to kill self-described Belarusian President Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s children (she and her family recently relocated to Poland from Lithuania). He was upset that her organization declined to help him restore his refugee status.

Poland had rescinded it (Protasevich claims that they came to consider him a national security threat but that can’t be confirmed), so he wanted to kill her children in revenge, make a dramatic political statement, and then commit suicide. Dashkevich admitted in a conversation with a Belarusian opposition outlet that he had indeed wrote to several associates something along the lines of, “What, should I kill Tsikhanouskaya’s children to draw attention to my problem?” but denied actually planning to do so.

He also claimed that he was told by employees of Poland’s Internal Security Service that Belarus passed along the warning about what he wrote, he showed them his correspondences, and the case was closed several days later. Be that as it may, the importance rests in the fact that Belarus tipped Poland off about a potential terrorist plot despite their frigid ties, which lends credence to what KGB chief Ivan Tertel claimed late last year about their security cooperation.

He said that “understanding is being established” with Poland and the Baltic States, adding that “Probably, it will not be a big secret to say that we have channels of communication with our partners. This dialogue is ongoing. And including through the special services. I would say that understanding between us is slowly improving. We discuss acute issues and somewhere we come to an understanding of mutual interests.” Poland denied Tertel’s claim, but it now appears to have been at least half-true.

The context in which this extraordinary development took place concerns Belarus’ gradual rapprochement with the US, which it was argued here will result in a rapprochement with Poland if it continues, and Lukashenko sharing a radically changed perception of Poland in January. Instead of seeing it as hellbent on subverting his government and threatening his country’s national security, he described it as a regional leader with a pragmatic policy. Lukashenko has since continued acting suspiciously.

In any case, the significance is that the Belarusian and Polish security services have resumed some limited form of cooperation, which could advance the cause of regional stability if this is coordinated with Moscow and isn’t part of a plot by Washington to divide them. In the best-case scenario, Belarus could facilitate the resumption of contact between Russia and Poland, with the goal being reach a post-war modus vivendi for positioning them to jointly construct a new security architecture in Europe.

The worst-case scenario, however, is that the Belarusian security services either pioneer a rapprochement with Poland that ultimately comes at the expense of Russia’s national interests or are co-opted by Poland into committing treason. To be sure, these scenarios are purely speculative, but they can’t be comfortably ruled out due to the KGB’s traditional opacity. Nevertheless, it’s better for observers to consider the best-case scenario, which could revolutionize the region’s grand strategic dynamics.