Will NASAPEC Become The New OPEC?

The US’ newly formalized control over the majority of Venezuela’s oil reserves and Caracas’ potential withdrawal from OPEC could see Trump 2.0 assembling a “North American-South American Petroleum Exporting Countries” group as part of the US’ power play for control over the global oil market.

Trump announced over the weekend that the US and Venezuela had agreed to “THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY”, which he boasted “secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela” that “MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves”. His interim counterpart Delcy Rodriguez then said in her own statement that “it calls for the development of 17 strategic fields” through “an investment of more than $100 billion”.

CBS later reported that the deal involves a “100-year concession” to “a private joint venture” in which “The U.S. government will control 55%, split between equity in the venture and the ability to obtain oil from it at cost”. The resultant outcome of the US adding 55% of Venezuela’s oil reserves to its own through these means amounts to a power play for control over the global oil market. If Venezuela leaves OPEC like it’s now considering, then an entirely new, US-controlled group might form in its wake.

It was foreseen as far back as December 2016 that the US could leverage its influence over the Western Hemisphere, which was already growing at the time due to what was described as its “Operation Condor 2.0” of restoring influence across the Americas, to launch something called NASAPEC. This stands for the “North American-South American Petroleum Exporting Countries” group modeled off of OPEC. It was a decade premature, but that prediction is finally on the brink of fulfilment after this historic oil deal.

Shortly after the US’ special operation in Venezuela in early January, it was concluded that “The US’ Capture Of Maduro Exposed The Reality Of Great Power Geopolitics”, namely that the US is openly working to restore its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere per its National Security Strategy. In retrospect, it then became clear that “The ‘Trump Doctrine’ Is Shaped By Elbridge Colby’s ‘Strategy Of Denial’”, which essentially aims to deny China access to the resources and markets that it needs to grow.

The NASAPEC concept, irrespective of whether it’s ever formalized, is a powerful means to this end that could be expanded to include de facto US control over its members’ other resource exports to China while possibly being paired with standardized tariffs on its imports one day too. The US’ grand strategic goal is to build “Fortress America”, the euphemism for the comprehensive restoration of its hegemony over the hemisphere, which will empower the US to more robustly compete with China this century.

As was earlier noted, “The US Military Campaign Against Iran Is Part Of Trump’s Grand Strategy Against China”, the main goal of relevance being to replicate the Venezuelan model in Iran. Failing that, this goal could still be advanced somewhat depending on how successful the US is in coercing its Gulf partners to redirect their exports away from China, which remains to be seen. The point is that the US is trying to expand the resource aspect of its Venezuelan-proven “strategy of denial” to other parts of the world.

Circling back to the lede, the US’ weaponization of its newly formalized control over most of Venezuela’s oil reserves is inevitable, and this will certainly be directed against China amidst their global systemic rivalry. If the NASAPEC concept becomes one of the means through which the US buttresses “Fortress America”, irrespective of whether it’s ever formalized, then all participating states would become US protectorates whose hypothetical future “defection” would trigger a military response, even an invasion.