There is a 25% chance that Moscow will retaliate by launching some Iskanders, Kinzhals and Gerans at empty storage containers, abandoned outhouses, decommissioned tuna canning plants and accordion tuning shops around Odessa and Kharkov. There is a 75% chnace that Moscow will retaliate by acting like nothing happened.
That's what I'm worried about, a "business-as-usual" strike instead of something reciprocally escalatory (Oreshniks at the very minimum up to decapitation strikes to tactical nukes).
The very fact that TASS reported that Russian negotiators departed for Istanbul ahead of tomorrow's talks and weren't told not to go made me wonder what Russia's calculations are.
Actually, I doubt that. I don't think Russia is at all "desperate." If anything, I think this will focus some minds and motivate Russia to take the gloves off.
First, a true "full-scale," no-holds-barred war, especially running up the civilian casualty count, would create a deep reservoir of hate right next door as a more or less permanent geopolitical fixture. It calls for something quite different than a war fought against an enemy thousands of miles away.
Also, Russians do not view Ukrainians as aliens--they share centuries of culture, have a common religion, etc. It is obvious from post-Soviet history that they have been trying to strike a delicate balance between firmly looking after Russia's security concerns on the one hand, and refraining from reincorporating the country into Russia. But this appears to be akin to "splitting the baby", likely a practical impossibility.
So how did Chechnya work out? Was Chechnya how many thousands of miles away? And tell us how Ukrainians are now filled with brotherly love for Russia because Russia is just so nice!
The Russians will front that they are participating in good faith in the peace talks while waging the war in a restrained fashion but that the Ukrainians are escalating the conflict to existential, nuclear levels just as they aren't seriously committed to negotiations. This comes on the heals of Trump's "disappointment" with Putin over last week's bombings, so it absolves Russia of blame for that and allows Trump to now strong arm Ukraine.
This is a classic MI6-style op. They have their fingerprints all over it. Did the CIA assist? Unlikely, assuming Trump and Putin have the rapport they obviously have and Trump's man in Langley has regained control of that nest of vipers -- which does remain a question, b/c the DoD wasn't involved.
I expect no less than a full retaliation strike from Russia. If Putin has learned anything dealing with the west this is the time to prove it. A final strike on Ukraine is long overdue not out of anger but to stop the increasing terrorist attacks. The Istanbul meeting will occur - at least Russia will be there because Putin keeps its word. After the latest Ukrainian attacks at the military heart of Russia, Putin must strike back with Oreshniks power and put a full stop to the SMO in Ukraine!
I know. I think Russia is very restrained in her dealings with Ukraine. Sometimes a “war of attrition” may not be a good tactic all the time. To every Russian tactical gain in the war of attrition there has been a Ukrainian tactical gain in terrorism of attrition. Just saying.
Where the hell do you gay ass pro hohol fruit cakes come from? If Russia wanted to "genocide" Ukrainians they would do exactly what you are claiming they do. But to this day Ukrainian trains run on time, the electricity works just fine, and for every Ukrainian air defence rocket that hits an apartment in Kiev 10 Russias drones and rockets hit jack shit in Ukraine. Andrew is honestly a saint for tolerating people like you in his comments.
Chet. You are clearly a misinformed person. Your comments tell a tale of someone who reads Fox News and believes ever world to be fact. Time to grow up and stop being a cia stooge.
Swedish-made SAAB Erieye AWACs aircraft in the skies deep inside Pakistan was shot down by Russian S400 system from a distance of more than 314 kms using 40N6 missile. Photos for evidence are being broadcast time and again in India.
Finland, Norway and Sweden will not hold for more than 7 minutes if Russia goes all out for them, and if that happens, there will remain zero role or utility for the populace of these countries post war. The world will cease to exist for them.
I am concerned that the western elites in the intel agencies and the corporate elites who profit from dead bodies know that they cannot win the war against Russia so they are going for maximum damage to Russia in the (vain)hopes that Putin will back down and make concessions. But like all psychopaths, they can do a lot of damage before they are stopped.
I do not understand Trump's game plan. I do not necessarily believe he is getting bad advice, after all, he talked to Putin himself and should have a good handle on what is motivating Putin to retaliate. It does not make sense to call retaliation "unprovoked" unless Trump has a good reason for doing so.
So this is the essence of the battle: while the neocons have created a proxy war between the US and the RF, there is a war between the US Intel Community (IC) and the Presidency. Up until Trump became President this time, it has been clear that the IC was in control of our government. So it may be still. (the two assassination attempts on Trump's life might have been a signal that they are in control, just in case Trump needed reminding). If the IC is in control, Trump won't have any way to stop the war. If Trump has found a way to checkmate the IC, he will be able to stop the war as long as he wants to. He appears to have been consistent in his wanting to stop the war.
In criticizing Putin, Trump may be trying to signal his objectivity and willingness to understand the Ukrainian (or CIA) perspective. This would be similar to the way Saudi Arabia has said in the past they wouldn't sign the Abraham Accords until there was a Palestinian state. That message was for the Arab street. Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has been fed up with the Palestinians for some time now. Israeli leaders knew what the Saudis really thought despite their overt rhetoric. Having spoken with Putin, Putin may know where Trump really stands, and that Trump really wants to end the conflict. This is conjecture of course.
I can understand Putin taking the action he is taking. He cannot back down at all.
In the case of Saudis, they had unambiguously conveyed their position through direct discreet channels to Israel that they do not care a sh#t about Palestinian menace and would rather even have them thrown out of Saudi to the last man or woman. And Saudi assurances made in private were backed by actions that followed to match, building trust with Israel in their wake.
In Trump's case, there are no concrete indications to assure Russia that Trump is going to rein in Ukraine beyond the red lines of strategic acceptability tolerability on part of Russia, and worse, there are no indications that Trump is indeed even in charge at home if he is sincere in dealings with Russia. For now, Ukraine and its EU handlers have been having a field day at unprovoked and unrequited escalation against civilian and strategic infra deep inside Russia; even if this is some conspiracy on part of Liberal globalist deep- staters or the CIA Intel-Community or whatever to disrupt the working-level trust Trump purports to have been building with Russia, Putin can hardly help it. Pragmatism dictates that Russia will need to judge Trump from circumstances, and it is not Putin's responsibility to salvage Trump's reputation. If Trump appears to be "in" with the ongoing sh#t, then Russia has little choice else than presume HE IS. It will serve Trump's reputation as well as the interest of survivability of his country best if Trump has the good sense to keep off in the event of a Russia-EU encounter going suddenly hot!
I hope Putin finally puts this rabid dog down. Ukraine has been so warped by the U.S. that it will be continual source of terrorism all over the world for decades to come.
It's time to end Trump's presidency by ending Ukraine.
If Trump is "in the dark", then the USA has yet another shithead puppet on the throne. In that case, there is no reason whatsoever in treating with the fucking genocidal USA.
If he means what he says and is fully aware of the " bad things", then he is a mentally retarded syphilitic and there is absolutely no reason to attempt to conduct diplomacy with the goddamned, fucking, worthless USA.
Russia is highly likely to emerge as the Victor after strategic and tactical strikes on nerve centres of Europe, provided it acts early enough before its strategic airplane arsenal and civil infrastructure have not been destroyed in endless Ukrainian Drone and missile strikes. However, if Russia dithers till the so called point of inevitability, till the point when even its existence has become endangered after widespread destruction of factories and industrial infrastructure, it will be left with glaring gaps of insufficiencies which will leave it incapable of self-sustenance even after decimating strikes on Europe. Thus, decimating or decapitation strikes on Europe with strategic and tactical eggs early on, will leave Russia victorious while those initiated only at the end will result in the MAD stalemate. Unlike the EU which is an anti-civilisational political synctitium geared to devour Russia like a Paramoecium, which can afford a division of labour among its constituent nations, the capacity for self-sustained vertical and horizontal integration of its manufacturing prowess is essential to long-term Survivability of Russia. This chain of blocks in its manufacturing prowess, including indigenous supply chains, must be preserved through aggressive defensive and offensive posturing as well as concrete measures. Whereas EU can always fall back on other constituent entities for backup in case there occurs supply chain interruption from military strikes on say, an automobile manufacturing plant; Russia can afford no such luxury and must strive to keep its entire industrial complex, with each element of the chain from raw material supply to factories producing plant machinery to those where final assembly occurs being assiduously preserved. The importance lies in decisive first strikes, without compunctions of limiting the scale for fear of "escalation". US will be most stupid to do anything but mind its own business looking the other way!
Another possibility is that Trump made those comments as a sop to the Neocons/Europeans (so he can focus on domestic matters while they salivate), but having played this slight of hand repeatedly already, they have gotten wise to it and so this time they timed these drone attacks so it appears Trump actually is behind it and then Ukraine will pretend that the US sanctioned or at least supported the attacks. This way they can throw suspicion into the obvious understanding Trump and Putin have and - they hope - draw the US back into the conflict against its will.
Your premise is wishful thinking. Pragmatism dictates that if Trump appears to be 'in" with this Sh#t, then it is a given assumption that HE IS, for all practical purpose. In interests of its survival, Russia cannot afford to reassure itself otherwise!
The Ukraine Russian war is more and more difficult to makes sense of. But a few things seem certain.
1. Trump is not in control. He desperately needs a win, a peace deal and GOP senators passing his big beautiful bill, but Lindsey Graham might be able to defeat it, crashing his presidency at the three plus month mark.
2. Lindsey Graham and Sidney Blumenthal probably had advanced notice of the attack on Russian air bases. It's highly likely that the British Spooks were involved. And rogue elements of the US deep state.
3. It is currently unclear how many Russian aircraft were destroyed, but it does not seem likely that this will have a major effect on the eventual Russian victory unless Putin blinks.
4. Putin is at a crossroads. If he does not launch a convincing counter attack, he may be replaced. Russians are tired of the go slow approach. At a minimum the war of attrition needs to be massively accelerated.
5. The actual attack is much like the Israeli pager attack; a one-off. Never again will Russia allow trucks laden with drones to come near it's air bases.
6. Russia's allies including China, India, Iran and North Korea will be more inclined to support Russia in a maximalist approach to the conflict.
7. The attack and the retaliation coming will have a major effect on the Iran negotiations depending on the actual damage to Russia's bombers and the damage from retaliation against Ukraine. The attack will also change the military planning and preparation of China with regard to Taiwan.
I read later news today (after your own post arrived) where Zelensky is quoted as saying this attack was over a year in the planning stage, and he seems ecstatic. If it really took over a year to plan and stage the resources for this, I guess he thinks a viable plan is to stage one of these attacks every year?
I seriously doubt Russia will abandon any of its SMO objectives. And more to the point, these saboteurs should actually prove to Russians that a simple cease-fire that does not address the "root causes" of the problem will leave them open to this kind of thing indefinitely.
What's clear is that Ukraine does not seek a ceasefire. Because it sure won't happen any time soon after this. Beyond that, I can't really understand the thinking on Ukraine's part, because it's just going to piss off the Russians and create more pressure on Putin to escalate. Is that what Ukraine wants?
Ukraine’s only hope is a wider war, so yes, they want this. The hope is that Russian retaliation gives enough reason for Europe to jump in, and drag the Americans in too. Europe has made this choice - the choice to try to dismember Russia- because it is weak, not because it is strong. Their financial and political systems desperately need overhauling and new blood, but the old ghouls won’t let that happen. War will give them the opportunities peace cannot.
I ask myself, What to Russia's enemies want from this attack? Because it certainly will inflame Russia emotions. It is designed as a provocation.
The more I think about it, the more I believe that it is one more effort to bait Russia into an endless war. Which was of course the whole point of the Ukraine conflict from the get-go: to mire Russia just as the US was mired in Afghanistan. Up to now, Russia has avoided that trap.
I think this is an attempt to bait Russia into all-out destruction of Ukraine, which would leave it as a failed state like Libya. That would put the onus onto Russia of managing the chaos of having a failed Ukraine on its border, while the chaos would also allow the US/NATO to support a guerilla war against Russia.
I believe the Russian leadership recognizes this and will find a way to satisfy the popular anger while avoiding the trap. The best outcome for Russia is a reduced but stable Ukraine (i.e., a rump state) with a functioning government that is not hostile. And that has been a stated aim since February of 2022.
Let's be honest. It's a great PR stunt and yes, losing a few planes hurts. However, aside from a PR stunt nothing has changes. Ukraine is still losing on the battlefield and that won't change.
It also shows though that Zelenksy isn't intersted in peace bespite his talks and (fake) attempts to cut deals in Istanbul.
Perhaps though, it makes the Russian leadership realize that it's time to take off the gloves and hit Ukraine hard.
Yeah whatever kid. You and all the NAFO bots simply don't understand that the longer this drags on, the lesser of Ukraine will remain. So be happy, enjoy the sunshine, think you landed a mayor victory, but don't cry when your beautiful Ukraine gets broken up like a Christmas cookie.
The peace talks and such bull cr&p are being dangled by the Power-brokers in EU and USA to keep Russia distracted even as both Europe and US go about their endeavour of pumping the trillions of dollars and Euros they are making from plunde of wealth generating Asian economies vide rapacious patents and IPR swindlers, for building golden dome shields to substantially immunise Europe and USA against Russian strategic missile counter-strikes. All the while, Russia is being bled economically, industrially and militarily in a sustained war of attrition draining its all of its attention, time and resources into a bottomless pit.
Russia needs to get over its slavish guilt-complex it has accidentally contracted from its close liaisons with Dravidian South Indians afflicted with the abominable Shilba Shitty complex who adulate and worship their White tormentors in carnal frenzy beyond the lunatic masochist limits of self-shaming. Russia must shake off such alien and suicidal influences which do not behove the Russian soul. Gird up its loins, stand up, dust off its clothes and feet, and punch Europe hard in a single maxima list and decisive blow of a kind which will obviate the need for any more for all time to come. And lo, enjoy the bountiful fortunes which God has laid on the table for it, which are the reward of the virtuous and brave. Strategic dithering beyond a point is akin to suicide.
Your post basically boils down to “My expert assessment is: I haven’t got the foggiest idea of what will happen, but something will happen, mark my words unless nothing happens that is”
An assumption that Russia is able to ‘retaliate’ is to accept the idea of infinite resources of the Russian System when in fact shortages, denigration and disfunction is a fact. Yes Russia can come up a response but to assume that it would be other than the Normal paybook of soft targets and wanton waste of material and manpower to achieve spectacular but military ineffective outcomes is just not feasible ( Short term).
ITS A FUCKING WAR. In all wars the violence is reciprocal. It's how they go. Like from the Dawn of Time. Adolf Hitler never,as far as I know,sent Fatty Churchill a telegram saying "we plan to bomb the East End of London tomorrow night old bean,do we have your gracious permission old boy" actually considering it was all run by the Secret Elite like this one is - he probably did,ha ha ha. Winnie the Pooh would have said Yes anyway because it's important in these situations to keep your own population destabilised and insecure and anyway the good old East End could take it. We have all those old Pathe newsreels of those cheery Cockney housewives keeping their peckers up and brewing tea among the ruins. And in the voice over commentary not a word of critiscm of Hitlers ACTION because of course stating that Mr Hitler was wrong to DO THIS would be condemning our Air Force for doing exactly the same thing. To apply this to now : Zelensky (supposedly)orders a few kill flights into Russia,no problem. Putin does the same the other way (remember it's a war,they are reciprocal,it's how they go) and it's How Dare He. He Didn't Even Ask Nicely.
Israel had bombed and drowned a civilian Iranian oil tanker plying the Red Sea, by launching missiles from an Israeli base located inside the UAE military base in Eritrea, and justified the attack as retaliation for Iran's supply of weapons to Yemen's Houthis who had been targetting Israeli commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Going by that logic, Russia will be fully justified in launching decapitation strikes with tactical and strategic eggs mounted on Oreshniks, Topols and Sarmats on command and industrial nerve centres of Germany and Scandinavia because the drones which bombed Olenya Airbase had approached from Finnish airspace, and the attack on Belaya Airbase had been conducted with German long-range Taurus missiles which can only be operated by German technicians on launch site and German operators ensconced inside makeshift NATO remote command centres on German and Czech soil. And smoking out the MQ9 Reaper and German drones hovering over the Black Sea, and the constellation of private company satellites which have been employed by NATO for smooth coordination of this operation.
Germany of itself does not possess the capacity to sustain the proxy war of attrition against Russia, but the EU has been plundering Asiatic emerging economies via the agency of an ever strangulating dragnet of rapacious patents encompassing all aspects of human existence, and all of the money looted in this fashion is being pumped into the German military industrial complex for the war effort as well as building a Golden dome type missile shield for immunising Germany against potential Russia counter-strikes when Germany intends to mount a decisive all out assault of holocaustic nuclear invasion some years down the line. Under the circumstances, with each passing day, Russian dithering brings Russia closer to self-inflicted suicide.
During the medieval invasions of Russia by holocaustic German Friars, apart from standing armies, whole populations of Germanic villages enroute the march to Russia would jump on the bandwagon as mercenary soldiers of fortune. That is how OstroGoths and Visigoth colonisers were able to completely deracinate the Baltics and penetrate Russia upto as far east as Saratov and Adygea where according to contemporary Arab travellers, they would keep hundreds of Slavic girls as slaves and burn those unfortunate damsels in fire upon death of the German chieftain in the belief that such rites would ensure their continued companionship to the master posthumously in Valhalha.
If Russia fails to draw hard existential lessons from its history, and continues to dither or vacillate out of indisposition, its impressive nuclear arsenal might soon be resigned to the fate of rusty armoury on display in museums of human history.
The anti-war protests currently underway in Germany are not going to make any difference to German policy which has become emboldened by tasting meat and blood, from Russian indecisiveness. Only a decisive premptive Russian response will deter Germany from further and more ambitious adventurism. The token protests in Germany are largely aimed at Russian leaders, for softening the latter up and evincing clemency, even as Germany goes about its consistent endeavour of BREAK RUSSIA and SLICE THE MELON.
Decisive Egg strikes on Germany will not be anything of a big deal embarrasment because they can be easily tauted as the outcome of knapsack mini-nukes smuggled by lone ISIS operatives. No adverse fallout! Pro's of NKVD can handle that for sure as swell!
There is a 25% chance that Moscow will retaliate by launching some Iskanders, Kinzhals and Gerans at empty storage containers, abandoned outhouses, decommissioned tuna canning plants and accordion tuning shops around Odessa and Kharkov. There is a 75% chnace that Moscow will retaliate by acting like nothing happened.
That's what I'm worried about, a "business-as-usual" strike instead of something reciprocally escalatory (Oreshniks at the very minimum up to decapitation strikes to tactical nukes).
The very fact that TASS reported that Russian negotiators departed for Istanbul ahead of tomorrow's talks and weren't told not to go made me wonder what Russia's calculations are.
Russian delegation sets off for Istanbul talks — TASS source
https://tass.com/politics/1966629
I can tell you what Russia's calculations are- Russia desperately wants this war to just go away..
The West smells blood, encouraged by Russian dithering and indecision.
Actually, I doubt that. I don't think Russia is at all "desperate." If anything, I think this will focus some minds and motivate Russia to take the gloves off.
So what has Russia been waiting for all this time?
First, a true "full-scale," no-holds-barred war, especially running up the civilian casualty count, would create a deep reservoir of hate right next door as a more or less permanent geopolitical fixture. It calls for something quite different than a war fought against an enemy thousands of miles away.
Also, Russians do not view Ukrainians as aliens--they share centuries of culture, have a common religion, etc. It is obvious from post-Soviet history that they have been trying to strike a delicate balance between firmly looking after Russia's security concerns on the one hand, and refraining from reincorporating the country into Russia. But this appears to be akin to "splitting the baby", likely a practical impossibility.
So how did Chechnya work out? Was Chechnya how many thousands of miles away? And tell us how Ukrainians are now filled with brotherly love for Russia because Russia is just so nice!
Excuses, excuses.
Precisely put, Feral Finster.
The feline blood runs icy cold.
The Russians will front that they are participating in good faith in the peace talks while waging the war in a restrained fashion but that the Ukrainians are escalating the conflict to existential, nuclear levels just as they aren't seriously committed to negotiations. This comes on the heals of Trump's "disappointment" with Putin over last week's bombings, so it absolves Russia of blame for that and allows Trump to now strong arm Ukraine.
Don't kid yourself. This attack happened with American participation and assistance.
This is a classic MI6-style op. They have their fingerprints all over it. Did the CIA assist? Unlikely, assuming Trump and Putin have the rapport they obviously have and Trump's man in Langley has regained control of that nest of vipers -- which does remain a question, b/c the DoD wasn't involved.
You assume facts not in evidence.
You apparently want WW3. Intelligence Operative or Idiot.
I expect no less than a full retaliation strike from Russia. If Putin has learned anything dealing with the west this is the time to prove it. A final strike on Ukraine is long overdue not out of anger but to stop the increasing terrorist attacks. The Istanbul meeting will occur - at least Russia will be there because Putin keeps its word. After the latest Ukrainian attacks at the military heart of Russia, Putin must strike back with Oreshniks power and put a full stop to the SMO in Ukraine!
I sincerely hope your expectations are met friend but I wouldn't hold my breath
I know. I think Russia is very restrained in her dealings with Ukraine. Sometimes a “war of attrition” may not be a good tactic all the time. To every Russian tactical gain in the war of attrition there has been a Ukrainian tactical gain in terrorism of attrition. Just saying.
Can
Whatever they can manage to hit; apartment blocks, schools, hospitals, and energy infrastructure.
Where the hell do you gay ass pro hohol fruit cakes come from? If Russia wanted to "genocide" Ukrainians they would do exactly what you are claiming they do. But to this day Ukrainian trains run on time, the electricity works just fine, and for every Ukrainian air defence rocket that hits an apartment in Kiev 10 Russias drones and rockets hit jack shit in Ukraine. Andrew is honestly a saint for tolerating people like you in his comments.
If my ass were gay, it would look a lot better. Weird that you didn't call me a Nazi five different ways.
"A saint" for tolerating any disagreement. Unlike his employer.
Nicely put.
Cry harder Dr Emotional.
While you lash out like the emotion driven puppet you are, Russia is demilitarizing America, NATO & Ukraine- the “root cause".
Soon enough Ukraine will disappear from the map and you can focus on defending Israel's ethnic cleansing.
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Ukis main operation was not the only one for June 1st [1].
[1] Two Bridges 'Blown Up', Trains Derailed, In Russian Regions Bordering Ukraine, Killing At Least 7 | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-bridges-blown-trains-derailed-russian-regions-bordering-ukraine-killing-least-7
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The West is simply again calling Russia's bluff again, that is all
No, they are gambling with the lives of their citizens.
The rulers of the West could not care less.
Both things can be true.
Russia has zero capacity to strike the West
Chet. You are clearly a misinformed person. Your comments tell a tale of someone who reads Fox News and believes ever world to be fact. Time to grow up and stop being a cia stooge.
He is not misinformed he is an idiot.
You’re clearly Russian - an American would know that Fox News is a broadcast network not a newspaper you read
Good point. Also, an american would also know that americans don't read.
Swedish-made SAAB Erieye AWACs aircraft in the skies deep inside Pakistan was shot down by Russian S400 system from a distance of more than 314 kms using 40N6 missile. Photos for evidence are being broadcast time and again in India.
Finland, Norway and Sweden will not hold for more than 7 minutes if Russia goes all out for them, and if that happens, there will remain zero role or utility for the populace of these countries post war. The world will cease to exist for them.
Finland, Norway and Sweden are confident that Russia will do no such thing.
I am concerned that the western elites in the intel agencies and the corporate elites who profit from dead bodies know that they cannot win the war against Russia so they are going for maximum damage to Russia in the (vain)hopes that Putin will back down and make concessions. But like all psychopaths, they can do a lot of damage before they are stopped.
I do not understand Trump's game plan. I do not necessarily believe he is getting bad advice, after all, he talked to Putin himself and should have a good handle on what is motivating Putin to retaliate. It does not make sense to call retaliation "unprovoked" unless Trump has a good reason for doing so.
So this is the essence of the battle: while the neocons have created a proxy war between the US and the RF, there is a war between the US Intel Community (IC) and the Presidency. Up until Trump became President this time, it has been clear that the IC was in control of our government. So it may be still. (the two assassination attempts on Trump's life might have been a signal that they are in control, just in case Trump needed reminding). If the IC is in control, Trump won't have any way to stop the war. If Trump has found a way to checkmate the IC, he will be able to stop the war as long as he wants to. He appears to have been consistent in his wanting to stop the war.
In criticizing Putin, Trump may be trying to signal his objectivity and willingness to understand the Ukrainian (or CIA) perspective. This would be similar to the way Saudi Arabia has said in the past they wouldn't sign the Abraham Accords until there was a Palestinian state. That message was for the Arab street. Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has been fed up with the Palestinians for some time now. Israeli leaders knew what the Saudis really thought despite their overt rhetoric. Having spoken with Putin, Putin may know where Trump really stands, and that Trump really wants to end the conflict. This is conjecture of course.
I can understand Putin taking the action he is taking. He cannot back down at all.
In the case of Saudis, they had unambiguously conveyed their position through direct discreet channels to Israel that they do not care a sh#t about Palestinian menace and would rather even have them thrown out of Saudi to the last man or woman. And Saudi assurances made in private were backed by actions that followed to match, building trust with Israel in their wake.
In Trump's case, there are no concrete indications to assure Russia that Trump is going to rein in Ukraine beyond the red lines of strategic acceptability tolerability on part of Russia, and worse, there are no indications that Trump is indeed even in charge at home if he is sincere in dealings with Russia. For now, Ukraine and its EU handlers have been having a field day at unprovoked and unrequited escalation against civilian and strategic infra deep inside Russia; even if this is some conspiracy on part of Liberal globalist deep- staters or the CIA Intel-Community or whatever to disrupt the working-level trust Trump purports to have been building with Russia, Putin can hardly help it. Pragmatism dictates that Russia will need to judge Trump from circumstances, and it is not Putin's responsibility to salvage Trump's reputation. If Trump appears to be "in" with the ongoing sh#t, then Russia has little choice else than presume HE IS. It will serve Trump's reputation as well as the interest of survivability of his country best if Trump has the good sense to keep off in the event of a Russia-EU encounter going suddenly hot!
I hope Putin finally puts this rabid dog down. Ukraine has been so warped by the U.S. that it will be continual source of terrorism all over the world for decades to come.
It's time to end Trump's presidency by ending Ukraine.
If Trump is "in the dark", then the USA has yet another shithead puppet on the throne. In that case, there is no reason whatsoever in treating with the fucking genocidal USA.
If he means what he says and is fully aware of the " bad things", then he is a mentally retarded syphilitic and there is absolutely no reason to attempt to conduct diplomacy with the goddamned, fucking, worthless USA.
Russia is highly likely to emerge as the Victor after strategic and tactical strikes on nerve centres of Europe, provided it acts early enough before its strategic airplane arsenal and civil infrastructure have not been destroyed in endless Ukrainian Drone and missile strikes. However, if Russia dithers till the so called point of inevitability, till the point when even its existence has become endangered after widespread destruction of factories and industrial infrastructure, it will be left with glaring gaps of insufficiencies which will leave it incapable of self-sustenance even after decimating strikes on Europe. Thus, decimating or decapitation strikes on Europe with strategic and tactical eggs early on, will leave Russia victorious while those initiated only at the end will result in the MAD stalemate. Unlike the EU which is an anti-civilisational political synctitium geared to devour Russia like a Paramoecium, which can afford a division of labour among its constituent nations, the capacity for self-sustained vertical and horizontal integration of its manufacturing prowess is essential to long-term Survivability of Russia. This chain of blocks in its manufacturing prowess, including indigenous supply chains, must be preserved through aggressive defensive and offensive posturing as well as concrete measures. Whereas EU can always fall back on other constituent entities for backup in case there occurs supply chain interruption from military strikes on say, an automobile manufacturing plant; Russia can afford no such luxury and must strive to keep its entire industrial complex, with each element of the chain from raw material supply to factories producing plant machinery to those where final assembly occurs being assiduously preserved. The importance lies in decisive first strikes, without compunctions of limiting the scale for fear of "escalation". US will be most stupid to do anything but mind its own business looking the other way!
Another possibility is that Trump made those comments as a sop to the Neocons/Europeans (so he can focus on domestic matters while they salivate), but having played this slight of hand repeatedly already, they have gotten wise to it and so this time they timed these drone attacks so it appears Trump actually is behind it and then Ukraine will pretend that the US sanctioned or at least supported the attacks. This way they can throw suspicion into the obvious understanding Trump and Putin have and - they hope - draw the US back into the conflict against its will.
Your premise is wishful thinking. Pragmatism dictates that if Trump appears to be 'in" with this Sh#t, then it is a given assumption that HE IS, for all practical purpose. In interests of its survival, Russia cannot afford to reassure itself otherwise!
Intelligence is the name of the geopolitical game. In that game deception is pragmatic.
The Ukraine Russian war is more and more difficult to makes sense of. But a few things seem certain.
1. Trump is not in control. He desperately needs a win, a peace deal and GOP senators passing his big beautiful bill, but Lindsey Graham might be able to defeat it, crashing his presidency at the three plus month mark.
2. Lindsey Graham and Sidney Blumenthal probably had advanced notice of the attack on Russian air bases. It's highly likely that the British Spooks were involved. And rogue elements of the US deep state.
3. It is currently unclear how many Russian aircraft were destroyed, but it does not seem likely that this will have a major effect on the eventual Russian victory unless Putin blinks.
4. Putin is at a crossroads. If he does not launch a convincing counter attack, he may be replaced. Russians are tired of the go slow approach. At a minimum the war of attrition needs to be massively accelerated.
5. The actual attack is much like the Israeli pager attack; a one-off. Never again will Russia allow trucks laden with drones to come near it's air bases.
6. Russia's allies including China, India, Iran and North Korea will be more inclined to support Russia in a maximalist approach to the conflict.
7. The attack and the retaliation coming will have a major effect on the Iran negotiations depending on the actual damage to Russia's bombers and the damage from retaliation against Ukraine. The attack will also change the military planning and preparation of China with regard to Taiwan.
I read later news today (after your own post arrived) where Zelensky is quoted as saying this attack was over a year in the planning stage, and he seems ecstatic. If it really took over a year to plan and stage the resources for this, I guess he thinks a viable plan is to stage one of these attacks every year?
I seriously doubt Russia will abandon any of its SMO objectives. And more to the point, these saboteurs should actually prove to Russians that a simple cease-fire that does not address the "root causes" of the problem will leave them open to this kind of thing indefinitely.
What's clear is that Ukraine does not seek a ceasefire. Because it sure won't happen any time soon after this. Beyond that, I can't really understand the thinking on Ukraine's part, because it's just going to piss off the Russians and create more pressure on Putin to escalate. Is that what Ukraine wants?
Ukraine’s only hope is a wider war, so yes, they want this. The hope is that Russian retaliation gives enough reason for Europe to jump in, and drag the Americans in too. Europe has made this choice - the choice to try to dismember Russia- because it is weak, not because it is strong. Their financial and political systems desperately need overhauling and new blood, but the old ghouls won’t let that happen. War will give them the opportunities peace cannot.
I ask myself, What to Russia's enemies want from this attack? Because it certainly will inflame Russia emotions. It is designed as a provocation.
The more I think about it, the more I believe that it is one more effort to bait Russia into an endless war. Which was of course the whole point of the Ukraine conflict from the get-go: to mire Russia just as the US was mired in Afghanistan. Up to now, Russia has avoided that trap.
I think this is an attempt to bait Russia into all-out destruction of Ukraine, which would leave it as a failed state like Libya. That would put the onus onto Russia of managing the chaos of having a failed Ukraine on its border, while the chaos would also allow the US/NATO to support a guerilla war against Russia.
I believe the Russian leadership recognizes this and will find a way to satisfy the popular anger while avoiding the trap. The best outcome for Russia is a reduced but stable Ukraine (i.e., a rump state) with a functioning government that is not hostile. And that has been a stated aim since February of 2022.
Let's be honest. It's a great PR stunt and yes, losing a few planes hurts. However, aside from a PR stunt nothing has changes. Ukraine is still losing on the battlefield and that won't change.
It also shows though that Zelenksy isn't intersted in peace bespite his talks and (fake) attempts to cut deals in Istanbul.
Perhaps though, it makes the Russian leadership realize that it's time to take off the gloves and hit Ukraine hard.
Only Ukrainians see this as a mayor victory. They fight a propaganda war while the Russians fight a real one.
Yeah whatever kid. You and all the NAFO bots simply don't understand that the longer this drags on, the lesser of Ukraine will remain. So be happy, enjoy the sunshine, think you landed a mayor victory, but don't cry when your beautiful Ukraine gets broken up like a Christmas cookie.
The peace talks and such bull cr&p are being dangled by the Power-brokers in EU and USA to keep Russia distracted even as both Europe and US go about their endeavour of pumping the trillions of dollars and Euros they are making from plunde of wealth generating Asian economies vide rapacious patents and IPR swindlers, for building golden dome shields to substantially immunise Europe and USA against Russian strategic missile counter-strikes. All the while, Russia is being bled economically, industrially and militarily in a sustained war of attrition draining its all of its attention, time and resources into a bottomless pit.
Russia needs to get over its slavish guilt-complex it has accidentally contracted from its close liaisons with Dravidian South Indians afflicted with the abominable Shilba Shitty complex who adulate and worship their White tormentors in carnal frenzy beyond the lunatic masochist limits of self-shaming. Russia must shake off such alien and suicidal influences which do not behove the Russian soul. Gird up its loins, stand up, dust off its clothes and feet, and punch Europe hard in a single maxima list and decisive blow of a kind which will obviate the need for any more for all time to come. And lo, enjoy the bountiful fortunes which God has laid on the table for it, which are the reward of the virtuous and brave. Strategic dithering beyond a point is akin to suicide.
Your post basically boils down to “My expert assessment is: I haven’t got the foggiest idea of what will happen, but something will happen, mark my words unless nothing happens that is”
An assumption that Russia is able to ‘retaliate’ is to accept the idea of infinite resources of the Russian System when in fact shortages, denigration and disfunction is a fact. Yes Russia can come up a response but to assume that it would be other than the Normal paybook of soft targets and wanton waste of material and manpower to achieve spectacular but military ineffective outcomes is just not feasible ( Short term).
ITS A FUCKING WAR. In all wars the violence is reciprocal. It's how they go. Like from the Dawn of Time. Adolf Hitler never,as far as I know,sent Fatty Churchill a telegram saying "we plan to bomb the East End of London tomorrow night old bean,do we have your gracious permission old boy" actually considering it was all run by the Secret Elite like this one is - he probably did,ha ha ha. Winnie the Pooh would have said Yes anyway because it's important in these situations to keep your own population destabilised and insecure and anyway the good old East End could take it. We have all those old Pathe newsreels of those cheery Cockney housewives keeping their peckers up and brewing tea among the ruins. And in the voice over commentary not a word of critiscm of Hitlers ACTION because of course stating that Mr Hitler was wrong to DO THIS would be condemning our Air Force for doing exactly the same thing. To apply this to now : Zelensky (supposedly)orders a few kill flights into Russia,no problem. Putin does the same the other way (remember it's a war,they are reciprocal,it's how they go) and it's How Dare He. He Didn't Even Ask Nicely.
Israel had bombed and drowned a civilian Iranian oil tanker plying the Red Sea, by launching missiles from an Israeli base located inside the UAE military base in Eritrea, and justified the attack as retaliation for Iran's supply of weapons to Yemen's Houthis who had been targetting Israeli commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Going by that logic, Russia will be fully justified in launching decapitation strikes with tactical and strategic eggs mounted on Oreshniks, Topols and Sarmats on command and industrial nerve centres of Germany and Scandinavia because the drones which bombed Olenya Airbase had approached from Finnish airspace, and the attack on Belaya Airbase had been conducted with German long-range Taurus missiles which can only be operated by German technicians on launch site and German operators ensconced inside makeshift NATO remote command centres on German and Czech soil. And smoking out the MQ9 Reaper and German drones hovering over the Black Sea, and the constellation of private company satellites which have been employed by NATO for smooth coordination of this operation.
Germany of itself does not possess the capacity to sustain the proxy war of attrition against Russia, but the EU has been plundering Asiatic emerging economies via the agency of an ever strangulating dragnet of rapacious patents encompassing all aspects of human existence, and all of the money looted in this fashion is being pumped into the German military industrial complex for the war effort as well as building a Golden dome type missile shield for immunising Germany against potential Russia counter-strikes when Germany intends to mount a decisive all out assault of holocaustic nuclear invasion some years down the line. Under the circumstances, with each passing day, Russian dithering brings Russia closer to self-inflicted suicide.
During the medieval invasions of Russia by holocaustic German Friars, apart from standing armies, whole populations of Germanic villages enroute the march to Russia would jump on the bandwagon as mercenary soldiers of fortune. That is how OstroGoths and Visigoth colonisers were able to completely deracinate the Baltics and penetrate Russia upto as far east as Saratov and Adygea where according to contemporary Arab travellers, they would keep hundreds of Slavic girls as slaves and burn those unfortunate damsels in fire upon death of the German chieftain in the belief that such rites would ensure their continued companionship to the master posthumously in Valhalha.
If Russia fails to draw hard existential lessons from its history, and continues to dither or vacillate out of indisposition, its impressive nuclear arsenal might soon be resigned to the fate of rusty armoury on display in museums of human history.
The anti-war protests currently underway in Germany are not going to make any difference to German policy which has become emboldened by tasting meat and blood, from Russian indecisiveness. Only a decisive premptive Russian response will deter Germany from further and more ambitious adventurism. The token protests in Germany are largely aimed at Russian leaders, for softening the latter up and evincing clemency, even as Germany goes about its consistent endeavour of BREAK RUSSIA and SLICE THE MELON.
Decisive Egg strikes on Germany will not be anything of a big deal embarrasment because they can be easily tauted as the outcome of knapsack mini-nukes smuggled by lone ISIS operatives. No adverse fallout! Pro's of NKVD can handle that for sure as swell!