Zelensky’s 40-Day Influence Operation Against Russia Is Unlikely To Succeed

Neither average Russians nor the elite are capable of influencing Putin, who’s the only person on the Russian side that decides when the Ukrainian Conflict ends and on what terms, and not even a radical spike in Ukrainian strikes is likely to convince him to de facto surrender like Zelensky demands.

Zelensky announced in a post on Telegram that he approved a 40-day operation to influence Russia to end the Ukrainian Conflict. The innuendo is that it should freeze the frontlines without first obtaining full control over Donbass like Putin hoped would happen as the quid pro quo per the reported “Spirit of Anchorage” whereby Trump was supposed to first coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from that region. Extrapolating further, Zelensky probably also wants NATO peacekeepers, which Russia shouldn’t oppose.

In pursuit of this end, which would indisputably amount to a Russian defeat that Putin never signaled any interest thus far in even countenancing no matter what might happen, Zelensky will almost certainly ramp up his US-assisted strikes against Russia. This can be intuited from him reporting in the same post just before announcing his 40-day influence operation that he received a briefing about these strikes. The timing also points to this being his modus operandi considering September’s Duma elections.

As was assessed here in mid-May, Putin’s foes hope that United Russia fares worse than its 49.82% of the popular vote during the last elections in 2021, thus forcing it into a coalition with either the communist or nationalist opposition parties as a symbolic defeat for Putin. Zelensky’s 40-day influence operation will stretch into early August, thus giving Putin around six weeks to wrap up the conflict per Zelensky’s calculations and selling the outcome as a victory in order to boost his party’s ratings before the elections.

The problem with this plan, other than Putin never having signaled that he’s interested in accepting what would indisputably amount to Russia’s defeat, is that Zelensky explicitly announced it. Average Russians who might consider voting for the communist, nationalist, or other opposition parties as a form of protest and might have also wanted Putin to wrap the special operation up soon will now think twice. After all, that’s exactly what Zelensky wants, so they’d inadvertently be doing their enemy’s bidding.

To be clear, Russians have the right to vote for whoever they want and to have whatever opinion about the special operation, and the earlier hyperlinked analysis from mid-May also argues that a coalition government might rejuvenate Russia by initiating a long-overdue process of self-criticism and -reform. Nevertheless, Zelensky believes that Putin wants to avoid that outcome at all costs, ergo his calculation that more strikes could get average Russians and the elite alike to coerce him into de facto surrendering.

Even if polling shows that voters aren’t deterred by Zelensky’s explicitly declared influence operation into reconsidering a large-scale protest vote and more elites publicly grumble, neither has the power to force Putin to do anything. Average Russians embrace the concept of “avos”, or fatalism, and thus aren’t prone to protests while the elites have no political influence. They’ll therefore carry on as usual even if Trump’s policy of “escalating to de-escalate” through a “war of attrition” inflicts tremendous harm on Russia.

The only person on the Russian side with the power to end the conflict is Putin, and nobody has any influence over him. He’s dead-set on at least obtaining full control over Donbass and has proven that he’s willing to accept whatever the costs may be to have this happen. Putin is getting old and has been in office for one-quarter of a century so he’s likely thinking about his legacy, which would be marred if he doesn’t achieve this goal at minimum and instead de facto surrenders after nearly 4.5 years of fighting.