17 Comments
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LudwigF's avatar

Very good analysis as usual.

This of course is why Russia is insisting that the territorial adjustments be recognised by Ukraine de jure, and not just de facto.

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barnabus's avatar

No one, just no-one, is going to accept de facto. Even de jure can be revoked upon provocation. De facto is not even that.

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Elaine Mander's avatar

What a hypocrite Putin and the Russians are calling Zelenski illigitimate!

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Steve's avatar

Yes Elaine. Thankyou - My knowledge of Russia/USSR, and all its presidents & general secs back to Lenin, is fairly extensive. As is my general knowledge of most things Russian - at least for a foreigner. I’ll repeat & expand the question…… why is it hypocritical for President Putin & other officials of the RF to call Zelensky illegitimate (as President of Ukraine)? And here is another question…… do you know anything at all about the political & electoral system in the RF - apart, that is, from the ‘information’ you’ve been spoon-fed by western narrative managers (ie: western media)? I’m not trying to be rude - just interested in where your thinking comes from?

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Elaine Mander's avatar

I have a Degree in Political Science and studied Russia and its leaders and have been reading extensively about Putin for years.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Well that settles...something, I guess.

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barnabus's avatar

Steve, there is a difference between legal and legitimate. IIRC Soviet constitution under Stalin allowed free speech and free exercise of religion...

On the other hand, Zelensky has boxed himself into a corner - he's a year beyond his official term of duty, and the constitutional amendment that negotiations can not lead to moving Ukrainian borders makes not much sense wrt negotiations.

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Steve's avatar

Thank you Barnabus. It’s also worth noting that no Ukrainian Govt has been legitimate since the 2014 Maidan coup.

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Elaine Mander's avatar

The Ukrainian people call it a Revolution but everyone just ignores the Ukrainian people altogether. I suggest you read Plotsky on the subject.

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Steve's avatar

Elaine. Have you read Victoria Nuland? It’s as clear as day that the ‘revolution’ was a U.S. regime change operation. Unfortunately it was very successful - to the detriment of the Ukrainian people. I ask again - where is the hypocrisy in Russia calling the Zelensky regime illegitimate?

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barnabus's avatar

It was an Orange revolution. With revolutions, there are always people in two minds about them. One side is in favor, the other side is against. The winning side mostly also has massive outside support - which is again not unusual. The two 1917 Revolutions in Russia had German support for example.

All Orange revolutions since 2009 have had support from the USA. Interestingly enough, some of them - in Russia, Hungary, Georgia and Israel - have failed.

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Steve's avatar

Can you explain why you think that? 🤔

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Elaine Mander's avatar

Are you kidding me? Do you not know anything about Putin?

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Nakayama's avatar

I am afraid that only the Russian Army's boots-on-ground can guarantee a settlement. And after a settlement is reached (whoever signs the doc in whatever form and whatever term), a pacification period of at least 3 years are needed. Ukraine is still frozen at the Yeltsin era. And it will take Russia at least 10 years for the four eastern oblasts to repair and rebuild. And many more years for any other oblasts added into the buffer zone.

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Mediocrates's avatar

Send this analysis directly to Starmer, Macron and Metz with the message "here is why Britain, France and Germany must keep out of this dispute. Any further interference will destroy any possibility of a lasting peace." If Trump plays the role of mediator whilst withdrawing military support then Ukraine and Russia can proceed with negotiations.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Since nobody of influence and authority in europe wants peace at this time...

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Feral Finster's avatar

The only thing that matters is whether orders in Zelenskii's name are carried out.

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