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Regis Tremblay's avatar

Some very good points, Andrew. But, Russia cannot and will not settle for a stalemate and be happy with some kind of truce. Were that to happen, Putin and the Russian military command would lose all credibility. 1) Demilitarize Ukraine. 2) Denazify Ukraine, and 3) ensure a NATO free, neutral state. Admittedly, the Ukrainian national army has been destroyed. This is a US NATO force that is carrying the fight. If Russia does not now understand that this is an existential fight for its survival, then it loses no matter the spin. Any kind of stalemate or "deal" does not solve Russia's security demands. the US and NATO will not stop until they are defeated on the ground. If Russia loses this fight, no one can talk about Russia's "leadership" in the global transition to a multipolar world. This is a fight not only for Russia's survival, but for humanity.

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Simon Hodges's avatar

A fairly balanced analysis. when many commentators are gravitating to extremes and simply making excuses for either side. I think an issue which has remained undiscussed is Russia 'contractor' model of recruitment to the regular professional army. Back in August many of these contractors failed to renew contracts and that is probably the reason that Russia lost Kharkiv as regular troops were leaving in droves. Its one thing to sign up to the military in peace time and a completely different thing in war time especially when leaders are making poor decisions. Has this situation been resolved? Is the mobilization of 300,000 troops merely making up for the contractors leaving? I have not seen any analysis of this phenomenon so its hard to say.

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