Calmly acknowledging setbacks and sharing constructive critiques afterwards aligns with the spirit of what President Putin suggested earlier in the summer when he advised against indulging in wishful thinking.
Some very good points, Andrew. But, Russia cannot and will not settle for a stalemate and be happy with some kind of truce. Were that to happen, Putin and the Russian military command would lose all credibility. 1) Demilitarize Ukraine. 2) Denazify Ukraine, and 3) ensure a NATO free, neutral state. Admittedly, the Ukrainian national army has been destroyed. This is a US NATO force that is carrying the fight. If Russia does not now understand that this is an existential fight for its survival, then it loses no matter the spin. Any kind of stalemate or "deal" does not solve Russia's security demands. the US and NATO will not stop until they are defeated on the ground. If Russia loses this fight, no one can talk about Russia's "leadership" in the global transition to a multipolar world. This is a fight not only for Russia's survival, but for humanity.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Even more interesting to see when, if ever, our spineless mass of politicians admit that they are being played by globalist influencers. Perhaps we should expect them to keep silent on NATO provocations and Kiev's US spnsored genocide in E. Ukraine since 2014, but I am amazed that none of them seem prepared to say that lockdown based upon Pfizer dictated modeling was wrong. Or that the defenestration of Liz Truss in favour of WEF choice Rishi Sunak was a coup. Or to wonder why we have 1800 extra deaths per week. Or to abhor primary school children being taught to "tickle themselves". Is there a Jeffrey Epstein figure keeping supposedly sensible people on message?!
"EUkrainians"That's a nice turn! Regarding No2, Russia has long known and it has been stated by Putin himself that regarding the West there is no one to negotiate with. If Russia is just now coming to this realization then, well, that would be unexplainable.
A fairly balanced analysis. when many commentators are gravitating to extremes and simply making excuses for either side. I think an issue which has remained undiscussed is Russia 'contractor' model of recruitment to the regular professional army. Back in August many of these contractors failed to renew contracts and that is probably the reason that Russia lost Kharkiv as regular troops were leaving in droves. Its one thing to sign up to the military in peace time and a completely different thing in war time especially when leaders are making poor decisions. Has this situation been resolved? Is the mobilization of 300,000 troops merely making up for the contractors leaving? I have not seen any analysis of this phenomenon so its hard to say.
Excellent analysis. Although, I disagree on many points, I think that many of the caveats apply to Russia's understanding of Western intentions prior to 2014. But Putin appears to march to a different drumbeat than most politicians. That is his hallmark. He would have been ill-equipped to fight a war in 2014 and he recognized the moral dimension of war. He took the high road - until 2022, when the RF was prepared. He is not just fighting a fraternal war, he is fighting a system of world control --AND restoring a nation and its culture. So -- expect a Lonnnnnnnnnnngggg War. Kherson, for example was not a defeat. Nor was Kharkov. https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/kherson-the-defeat-that-wasnt
Unlike you, I have been around since the actual Cold War. I have heard plenty of Russian propaganda in my time and those fanciful pronouncements are no more true now than they were then. However, it did teach me how to spot a propagandist. Propagandists are not permitted independent thought or to stray from the party line. Let us see if this describes you.
Here are the facts.
0. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia in any sense.
1. Ukraine's government is ideologically benign, democratically elected and supported by the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens, including the majority of Russian speakers.
2. NATO has perfectly legitimate reasons that have nothing to do with animus against Russia for supporting said government militarily.
3. Ukraine wants to be an independent country, not a Russian vassal like Belarus.
4. Ukraine will accept neutrality or demilitarization but not both. It will be protected by either NATO's article 5 or by a military capable of defeating Russian aggression but not both.
5. Ukraine will give up Crimea and Donbas but no more.
6. Russia has suffered significant casualties, reputational damage and other real harm due to this war and can ill afford it being prolonged much further.
You should be able to consider these facts and use them to come up with policy proposals that could actually get Russia out of this mess that they have created. It truthfully is not hard at all. Yet, not a single pro-Russian site has been willing or capable of doing so. The reason for this is that that they are mere propagandists. Let us see if you are any more or better.
I am from Kiev, was born there and lived there till 1978. So sorry to tell you, but you are wrong
Ukrainian start to dye first time in 1905, first “ color revolution “, by the time the second came, people were so brainwashed, they were killed for nothing. The Ukrainian President was selected.
I am praying that more people will open their eyes and ask for Russians for help and demand to stop that war that does nothing for Ukrainian people.
P.S. Ukrainian President, who is so deeply cares about his hungry, without electricity people, that he had to, absolutely, buy a villa in Florida. Vey nice home, in very nice place.
So you left Ukraine in 1978. Of course that makes you an expert on what has happened since 2014. The war does nothing for the Ukrainian people? They have recaptured two oblasts and will have the third, Zaporizhzhia, by January. And of course, Zelensky's flaws justify Russia taking their land and sovereignty, right? Imagine if the same standard was applied to your beloved Russia.
You must ask: what is the war doing for Russia? You are fast approaching 100,000 Russian soldiers dead. Moskva is gone, along with scores of tanks, UAVs, howitzers, planes, drones etc. that Russia lacks the financial resources or manufacturing capacity to quickly replace. And despite claims otherwise the sanctions are harming Russia's economy: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-renewed-demands-over-115415900.html with the most harsh set of sanctions set to take effect starting in December. And as Ukraine continues to receive weapons and training from the west, a good question is how many of the 300,000 they plan to send to Ukraine will ever return. That along with the hundreds of thousands of draft dodgers.
To that I would add that communications inside Ukraine remain robust. So much so that Ukraine continues to have an oversight of operations that doesn't have to rely on reports from the front, although they still get those in spades by monitoring Russian internet sites and phone communications. Russia was castigated, very briefly, for jeopardizing the safety of satellites in orbit over Ukraine, by destroying one of its own. It might be prudent continue to add to that 'threat' by destroying somebody else's. There are a number of 3rd and 4th party operators , over Ukraine, actively assisting their military. That, like other communications and public utilities, needs to stop.
Some very good points, Andrew. But, Russia cannot and will not settle for a stalemate and be happy with some kind of truce. Were that to happen, Putin and the Russian military command would lose all credibility. 1) Demilitarize Ukraine. 2) Denazify Ukraine, and 3) ensure a NATO free, neutral state. Admittedly, the Ukrainian national army has been destroyed. This is a US NATO force that is carrying the fight. If Russia does not now understand that this is an existential fight for its survival, then it loses no matter the spin. Any kind of stalemate or "deal" does not solve Russia's security demands. the US and NATO will not stop until they are defeated on the ground. If Russia loses this fight, no one can talk about Russia's "leadership" in the global transition to a multipolar world. This is a fight not only for Russia's survival, but for humanity.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Even more interesting to see when, if ever, our spineless mass of politicians admit that they are being played by globalist influencers. Perhaps we should expect them to keep silent on NATO provocations and Kiev's US spnsored genocide in E. Ukraine since 2014, but I am amazed that none of them seem prepared to say that lockdown based upon Pfizer dictated modeling was wrong. Or that the defenestration of Liz Truss in favour of WEF choice Rishi Sunak was a coup. Or to wonder why we have 1800 extra deaths per week. Or to abhor primary school children being taught to "tickle themselves". Is there a Jeffrey Epstein figure keeping supposedly sensible people on message?!
Russia needs to up it's game to a war on Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting a war against Russia.
Left to their imported 'devices' nationalist EUkrainians have no intention of not moving it out of its present location - sooner or later.
"EUkrainians"That's a nice turn! Regarding No2, Russia has long known and it has been stated by Putin himself that regarding the West there is no one to negotiate with. If Russia is just now coming to this realization then, well, that would be unexplainable.
A fairly balanced analysis. when many commentators are gravitating to extremes and simply making excuses for either side. I think an issue which has remained undiscussed is Russia 'contractor' model of recruitment to the regular professional army. Back in August many of these contractors failed to renew contracts and that is probably the reason that Russia lost Kharkiv as regular troops were leaving in droves. Its one thing to sign up to the military in peace time and a completely different thing in war time especially when leaders are making poor decisions. Has this situation been resolved? Is the mobilization of 300,000 troops merely making up for the contractors leaving? I have not seen any analysis of this phenomenon so its hard to say.
Excellent analysis. Although, I disagree on many points, I think that many of the caveats apply to Russia's understanding of Western intentions prior to 2014. But Putin appears to march to a different drumbeat than most politicians. That is his hallmark. He would have been ill-equipped to fight a war in 2014 and he recognized the moral dimension of war. He took the high road - until 2022, when the RF was prepared. He is not just fighting a fraternal war, he is fighting a system of world control --AND restoring a nation and its culture. So -- expect a Lonnnnnnnnnnngggg War. Kherson, for example was not a defeat. Nor was Kharkov. https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/kherson-the-defeat-that-wasnt
Nice to see people acknowledging the colossal intelligence failure that led us to the situation that we're in today.
The next question is whether or not heads will roll for this incompetence in the "intelligence" community in Russia.
Unlike you, I have been around since the actual Cold War. I have heard plenty of Russian propaganda in my time and those fanciful pronouncements are no more true now than they were then. However, it did teach me how to spot a propagandist. Propagandists are not permitted independent thought or to stray from the party line. Let us see if this describes you.
Here are the facts.
0. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia in any sense.
1. Ukraine's government is ideologically benign, democratically elected and supported by the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens, including the majority of Russian speakers.
2. NATO has perfectly legitimate reasons that have nothing to do with animus against Russia for supporting said government militarily.
3. Ukraine wants to be an independent country, not a Russian vassal like Belarus.
4. Ukraine will accept neutrality or demilitarization but not both. It will be protected by either NATO's article 5 or by a military capable of defeating Russian aggression but not both.
5. Ukraine will give up Crimea and Donbas but no more.
6. Russia has suffered significant casualties, reputational damage and other real harm due to this war and can ill afford it being prolonged much further.
You should be able to consider these facts and use them to come up with policy proposals that could actually get Russia out of this mess that they have created. It truthfully is not hard at all. Yet, not a single pro-Russian site has been willing or capable of doing so. The reason for this is that that they are mere propagandists. Let us see if you are any more or better.
I am from Kiev, was born there and lived there till 1978. So sorry to tell you, but you are wrong
Ukrainian start to dye first time in 1905, first “ color revolution “, by the time the second came, people were so brainwashed, they were killed for nothing. The Ukrainian President was selected.
I am praying that more people will open their eyes and ask for Russians for help and demand to stop that war that does nothing for Ukrainian people.
P.S. Ukrainian President, who is so deeply cares about his hungry, without electricity people, that he had to, absolutely, buy a villa in Florida. Vey nice home, in very nice place.
So you left Ukraine in 1978. Of course that makes you an expert on what has happened since 2014. The war does nothing for the Ukrainian people? They have recaptured two oblasts and will have the third, Zaporizhzhia, by January. And of course, Zelensky's flaws justify Russia taking their land and sovereignty, right? Imagine if the same standard was applied to your beloved Russia.
You must ask: what is the war doing for Russia? You are fast approaching 100,000 Russian soldiers dead. Moskva is gone, along with scores of tanks, UAVs, howitzers, planes, drones etc. that Russia lacks the financial resources or manufacturing capacity to quickly replace. And despite claims otherwise the sanctions are harming Russia's economy: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-renewed-demands-over-115415900.html with the most harsh set of sanctions set to take effect starting in December. And as Ukraine continues to receive weapons and training from the west, a good question is how many of the 300,000 they plan to send to Ukraine will ever return. That along with the hundreds of thousands of draft dodgers.
To that I would add that communications inside Ukraine remain robust. So much so that Ukraine continues to have an oversight of operations that doesn't have to rely on reports from the front, although they still get those in spades by monitoring Russian internet sites and phone communications. Russia was castigated, very briefly, for jeopardizing the safety of satellites in orbit over Ukraine, by destroying one of its own. It might be prudent continue to add to that 'threat' by destroying somebody else's. There are a number of 3rd and 4th party operators , over Ukraine, actively assisting their military. That, like other communications and public utilities, needs to stop.