Aliyev might respect Russia’s sensitivities in Central Asia by not allowing TRIPP to be used for military purposes, while Putin could help him counterbalance the influence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Andrew, what you say about AMC is funny and we have a beautiful exemple those days.
When Trump presented his plan for Gaza, immediately, pro-Russian-non-Russian AMC unchained hell against it, it was bad, stupid, unrealistic, scandalously unfair ( and personally, I am ok with those critics') . And now Russia and China( and I'm disgusted by them) warmly congratulate Trump and his plan , all AMC is like fools. They don't dare criticize Xi and Poutine, and they invent all kind of bullshit for bridging that Van Damne-size gap. :)
Oh yeah, they're once again humiliated and exposed for trying to be "more Russian than the Russians" as they imagine Russians to be lol Most top NRPRs in the AMC are literally cultish, as in, they behave like leads of a cult and expect their followers to respond accordingly.
The Azeri,s know that Russia is the big man in the Caucauses. America is 1,000 miles away. Over the centuries Russia has fought against Turkey several times. Turkey being a member of NATO is an enemy of Russia.
I share your concerns and that's why I didn't jump the gun assuming that Russia will soon implement a prior agreement to build a pipeline to Iran through Azerbaijan.
In that scenario given what recently transpired and continued mutual distrust, this project could easily be held hostage or even sabotaged in a crisis.
Just like Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure would be vulnerable, so too would Russia's and Iran's in Azerbaijan, and they'd retaliate accordingly and possibly even move first.
North-South Transport Corridor trade would be optimized via Azerbaijan, but the trans-Caspian and eastern shore branches suffice for keeping Azerbaijan out of the equation for now.
Unless the Kremlin naively jumps in head-first, which is of course possible, I expect some time to pass before trans-Azeri megaprojects are once again seriously discussed.
It would be premature to go through with them now since they could be held hostage or even sabotaged as explained. Giving Azerbaijan that hypothetical opportunity in this context would amount to ceding leverage over Russia.
If Iran stay in China-Russia side, Azerbaijan will endanger itself terribly in following USA-Turkey.
If, as I think, Iran ruled by Pezeskian's bunch weight a submission to West or, at least, negotiate with US a geopolitical cut with Russia and a rapprochement with Azerbaijan, it will become awful for Russia.
Everybody can notice that before Pezeskian, Iran have threatened Azerbaijan of war each time it was told about an Azeri control of the famous corridor. Have you heard Pezeskian do the smallest threat about this topic?
Andrew, what you say about AMC is funny and we have a beautiful exemple those days.
When Trump presented his plan for Gaza, immediately, pro-Russian-non-Russian AMC unchained hell against it, it was bad, stupid, unrealistic, scandalously unfair ( and personally, I am ok with those critics') . And now Russia and China( and I'm disgusted by them) warmly congratulate Trump and his plan , all AMC is like fools. They don't dare criticize Xi and Poutine, and they invent all kind of bullshit for bridging that Van Damne-size gap. :)
Oh yeah, they're once again humiliated and exposed for trying to be "more Russian than the Russians" as they imagine Russians to be lol Most top NRPRs in the AMC are literally cultish, as in, they behave like leads of a cult and expect their followers to respond accordingly.
Sure. And one better not put their nose in their shit, even politely, immediately, their disciples go wild and insult you like mad dogs.
Right, they're some of the most vicious people that I've ever encountered online. Basically a putatively "pro-Russian" version of "NAFO".
The Azeri,s know that Russia is the big man in the Caucauses. America is 1,000 miles away. Over the centuries Russia has fought against Turkey several times. Turkey being a member of NATO is an enemy of Russia.
Not sure that a simple Turkic promise to not allow TRIPP for military use is worth the paper on which it is written
I share your concerns and that's why I didn't jump the gun assuming that Russia will soon implement a prior agreement to build a pipeline to Iran through Azerbaijan.
In that scenario given what recently transpired and continued mutual distrust, this project could easily be held hostage or even sabotaged in a crisis.
Just like Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure would be vulnerable, so too would Russia's and Iran's in Azerbaijan, and they'd retaliate accordingly and possibly even move first.
North-South Transport Corridor trade would be optimized via Azerbaijan, but the trans-Caspian and eastern shore branches suffice for keeping Azerbaijan out of the equation for now.
Unless the Kremlin naively jumps in head-first, which is of course possible, I expect some time to pass before trans-Azeri megaprojects are once again seriously discussed.
It would be premature to go through with them now since they could be held hostage or even sabotaged as explained. Giving Azerbaijan that hypothetical opportunity in this context would amount to ceding leverage over Russia.
I think that the key of the problem is Iran.
If Iran stay in China-Russia side, Azerbaijan will endanger itself terribly in following USA-Turkey.
If, as I think, Iran ruled by Pezeskian's bunch weight a submission to West or, at least, negotiate with US a geopolitical cut with Russia and a rapprochement with Azerbaijan, it will become awful for Russia.
Everybody can notice that before Pezeskian, Iran have threatened Azerbaijan of war each time it was told about an Azeri control of the famous corridor. Have you heard Pezeskian do the smallest threat about this topic?
You have the answer.