Since details emerged regarding the pipeline attack— American boats were in the area, the depth of the sea at that point, Biden’s ill-advised blather about committing precisely that crime—it has seemed apparent to me that the destruction was a US special forces operation.
I have not been impressed by (much) later “revelations” to the effect that Zelensky and friends planned and pulled off the operation themselves. That has never seemed credible to me. I would be very interested in Mr. Korybko’s take on that, and the prospects for determinative investigation. If bad actors in my country, the US, ordered this done, it was a serious act of state terror by a country ostensibly not at war with Russia… or Germany.
"Turkiye’s stance is difficult to understand, but it either doesn’t believe Russia’s claims of Ukraine attempting to attack TurkStream or it inexplicably believes that it has more to gain from continuing to arm Ukraine in spite of these provocations than to cut it off in response. "
The Turks aren't given a choice,
And of course the attack was approved by the Biden Administration, although whether Puddingbrain himself was aware or was made aware is irrelevant.
"The Turks aren't given a choice," Yep, with them there is no alternative to taking money, it's as powerful a compulsion as a wristlock. It would not surprise me if they sold the drones used to attack Turkstream Pumping Station, and they'd turn around and expect to be compensated for lost income if the attack had won through.
>>"Turkiye’s stance is difficult to understand, but it either doesn’t believe Russia’s claims of Ukraine attempting to attack TurkStream or it inexplicably believes that it has more to gain from continuing to arm Ukraine in spite of these provocations than to cut it off in response."
Is it hard to understand? Turkey has been able to have it both ways on the Ukraine War all the way along. Whatever the truth of the claimed attack is, it evidently didn't succeed. And it's not clear that Turkey's "cutting Ukraine off"--or a threat to do so--would change Ukraine's calculus in attacking Turkstream anyway. Turkey may also be looking to diversify its gas imports away from Russia now that, say, Qatari gas could perhaps be pipelined through Saudi and Syria to Turkey.
It's just another example of the highly nuanced sets of motives driving all the players.
>>"Ukraine’s motive was to destroy the last operating pipeline between Russia and the EU, which it believed would then make it more difficult for them to enter into a meaningful rapprochement after the conflict ends while also depriving the Kremlin of revenue for financing its ongoing special operation."
I imagine that it's also an attempt to eliminate the incentive for European countries that have depended on Russian pipelines gas to impede the EU war effort. If Slovakia no longer gets Russian pipeline gas, will it then eventually revert to a more conventional view of the ongoing conflict? I see that the Slovakian opposition is now planning a no-confidence vote against Fico.
What of the lag period between today cessation of gas for Turkey if attack was successful and construction of new Qatari pipeline. A number of years with no gas for Turkey would not be an envious position so where is the positive for the snake Erdogan in that I wonder.
Chaos is all the Evil empire has left but is the disease spreading to other leaders.
Thanks for the insight. I suggest that with LNG available from both Russia Qatar and the USA, pipelines are not the best option, and as another reader pointed out, Turkye also has the option of persuading Qatar to develop a pipeline through Syria . But why would they bother with that if they can ship LNG directly to European terminals?
RU (& China?) can tell Turkey to pay for new ports and tankers, and repay RU's sunk costs and projected revenue loss of TurkeyStream, if they want Russian energy.
Since details emerged regarding the pipeline attack— American boats were in the area, the depth of the sea at that point, Biden’s ill-advised blather about committing precisely that crime—it has seemed apparent to me that the destruction was a US special forces operation.
I have not been impressed by (much) later “revelations” to the effect that Zelensky and friends planned and pulled off the operation themselves. That has never seemed credible to me. I would be very interested in Mr. Korybko’s take on that, and the prospects for determinative investigation. If bad actors in my country, the US, ordered this done, it was a serious act of state terror by a country ostensibly not at war with Russia… or Germany.
I wrote about that here when those reports first emerged in early 2023:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-us-latest-disinfo-campaign-about
Was hoping so. Thank you for the link
Erdogan's Turkey wants neither a stable Russia nor does it want the (perceived) threat of Russia to go away. That would put limits on the grift.
"Turkiye’s stance is difficult to understand, but it either doesn’t believe Russia’s claims of Ukraine attempting to attack TurkStream or it inexplicably believes that it has more to gain from continuing to arm Ukraine in spite of these provocations than to cut it off in response. "
The Turks aren't given a choice,
And of course the attack was approved by the Biden Administration, although whether Puddingbrain himself was aware or was made aware is irrelevant.
"The Turks aren't given a choice," Yep, with them there is no alternative to taking money, it's as powerful a compulsion as a wristlock. It would not surprise me if they sold the drones used to attack Turkstream Pumping Station, and they'd turn around and expect to be compensated for lost income if the attack had won through.
I think your comment that Turkey wants to keep the pot boiling so that they can demand concessions from both sides is quite insightful.
Perhaps we could make that a triangle of sides, as it's useful to have the distraction from the internal/domestic grift too.
>>"Turkiye’s stance is difficult to understand, but it either doesn’t believe Russia’s claims of Ukraine attempting to attack TurkStream or it inexplicably believes that it has more to gain from continuing to arm Ukraine in spite of these provocations than to cut it off in response."
Is it hard to understand? Turkey has been able to have it both ways on the Ukraine War all the way along. Whatever the truth of the claimed attack is, it evidently didn't succeed. And it's not clear that Turkey's "cutting Ukraine off"--or a threat to do so--would change Ukraine's calculus in attacking Turkstream anyway. Turkey may also be looking to diversify its gas imports away from Russia now that, say, Qatari gas could perhaps be pipelined through Saudi and Syria to Turkey.
It's just another example of the highly nuanced sets of motives driving all the players.
>>"Ukraine’s motive was to destroy the last operating pipeline between Russia and the EU, which it believed would then make it more difficult for them to enter into a meaningful rapprochement after the conflict ends while also depriving the Kremlin of revenue for financing its ongoing special operation."
I imagine that it's also an attempt to eliminate the incentive for European countries that have depended on Russian pipelines gas to impede the EU war effort. If Slovakia no longer gets Russian pipeline gas, will it then eventually revert to a more conventional view of the ongoing conflict? I see that the Slovakian opposition is now planning a no-confidence vote against Fico.
What of the lag period between today cessation of gas for Turkey if attack was successful and construction of new Qatari pipeline. A number of years with no gas for Turkey would not be an envious position so where is the positive for the snake Erdogan in that I wonder.
Chaos is all the Evil empire has left but is the disease spreading to other leaders.
Insightful, thanks.
Thanks for the insight. I suggest that with LNG available from both Russia Qatar and the USA, pipelines are not the best option, and as another reader pointed out, Turkye also has the option of persuading Qatar to develop a pipeline through Syria . But why would they bother with that if they can ship LNG directly to European terminals?
RU (& China?) can tell Turkey to pay for new ports and tankers, and repay RU's sunk costs and projected revenue loss of TurkeyStream, if they want Russian energy.