Absent official confirmation of those Chinese companies’ decision, the veracity of Kommersant’s claim can only be speculated upon, but it was noteworthy that RT raised awareness of this report among their global audience. RT reported on Monday that Russia’s reputable business daily Kommersant claimed that “French TotalEnergies, Chinese CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), and a consortium of Japanese Mitsui and JOGMEC declared force majeure on their participation” in Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project. This decision was allegedly in response to new US sanctions from early November “banning third countries in Asia and Europe from purchasing LNG produced by the plant when it starts operating in 2024.”
IMO the significant relationship here will be with the contractors/suppliers, rather than financing or offtake. I.e., who will replace German mega industrials like Siemens, Linde, Wintershall etc, in the Russian oil/gas services and infrastructure market. The most likely candidates would be up-and-coming Chinese firms, given the most powerful industrial base, and ability to scale-up multiples faster than anyone else. The benefit here is that the massive Russian market would kickstart for the Chinese a quickly-acquired base, to absorb depreciation of tech development, and thereby more quickly push out EU firms from other global oil/gas markets. At the other extreme, Russian home-grown industry would do the same, with or without foreign help, but the process of replacing former German/EU suppliers would arguably be slower. More likely still, the result would be a mix with participation of the Chinese supply chain, but not at the top-level of the corporate layercake, but instead two or three levels down.
US sanctions threats vs China are not very serious, as by now PRC holds considerably more levers over the US economy than US holds over the Chinese one. (in the extreme, a full shutdown would return China to 2010's tech level, while US civilians would revert to tech level of the mid 1900's for several painful years). PRC has time on their side, however, and are not as eager to escalate as US hawks.
The situation is eased by a coming upswing, likely even a glut, in seaborne LNG capacity -- with production (decided half a decade ago) due to come online in the Gulf and elsewhere.
Makes sense that China wants to recycle the plastics and other toxins the USA dumped on them for so long.
IMO the significant relationship here will be with the contractors/suppliers, rather than financing or offtake. I.e., who will replace German mega industrials like Siemens, Linde, Wintershall etc, in the Russian oil/gas services and infrastructure market. The most likely candidates would be up-and-coming Chinese firms, given the most powerful industrial base, and ability to scale-up multiples faster than anyone else. The benefit here is that the massive Russian market would kickstart for the Chinese a quickly-acquired base, to absorb depreciation of tech development, and thereby more quickly push out EU firms from other global oil/gas markets. At the other extreme, Russian home-grown industry would do the same, with or without foreign help, but the process of replacing former German/EU suppliers would arguably be slower. More likely still, the result would be a mix with participation of the Chinese supply chain, but not at the top-level of the corporate layercake, but instead two or three levels down.
US sanctions threats vs China are not very serious, as by now PRC holds considerably more levers over the US economy than US holds over the Chinese one. (in the extreme, a full shutdown would return China to 2010's tech level, while US civilians would revert to tech level of the mid 1900's for several painful years). PRC has time on their side, however, and are not as eager to escalate as US hawks.
The situation is eased by a coming upswing, likely even a glut, in seaborne LNG capacity -- with production (decided half a decade ago) due to come online in the Gulf and elsewhere.