The only reason why Kazakhstan is being considered either as a complement or an alternative to Mongolia as a transit state to China is for political reasons.
It would be beneficial to both countries to resolve this matter in a timely manner for monetary profit reasons. The longer this drags out, the more bad optics it brings to BRICS' credibility if the two main players can't make a basic agreement, right? I propose that Russia make China a 20% shareholder in all energy projects destined for its country and set an example for BRICS's future development in how deals are done. China gets fair value in shares, while Russia gets fair value or more on its gas price from China. It's a win-win for both countries and lays the foundation for how to get deals done between BRICS countries. It's a start. As long as this dispute exists, BRICS cannot advance running the risk of being a great idea that went nowhere.
I think Russia only needs to move a small step back in gas pricing. PRC was not that reliable a business partner in the past (ask Sukhoi), and China needs gas anyway. I also like commentator Denis idea (above) to invite China to become a minority shareholder in the project. The original Siberia pipeline was focused on the needs of China's northeast (Manchuria) to replace its depleted coal. However, the whole north China and Chinese northwest also can use some imported gas, especially when China is moving its MIC further west.
To push the same idea a little bit more: both the proposed pipeline through Kazakhstan and the previous pipeline through Mongolia can both invite Mongolia and Kazakhstan to take minority shares in the project in exchange for the land access fees/lease. Kazakhstan is well known to have large natural gas reserve looking for path to export to the west. But if there is a buyer from the east, I don't think Kazakhstan would take an issue there. The same can be said about gas/oil in Mongolia. Note the total business scope and profits available to Russia are reduced, maybe even more so than the gutted gas deal between China and Russia. However, each trade happening inside BRICS and the global south is a blow to USD hegemony. Due to China's own projects in developing oil/gas in China's northwest, pipelines entering Xinjiang from Kazakhstan can eventually link to China's own domestic pipeline between northern China and China's northwest.
Of course, the whole scope does not have to be this big in the beginning, but it is a strategic option Russia has to consider now due to its long term goals and effect.
It would be beneficial to both countries to resolve this matter in a timely manner for monetary profit reasons. The longer this drags out, the more bad optics it brings to BRICS' credibility if the two main players can't make a basic agreement, right? I propose that Russia make China a 20% shareholder in all energy projects destined for its country and set an example for BRICS's future development in how deals are done. China gets fair value in shares, while Russia gets fair value or more on its gas price from China. It's a win-win for both countries and lays the foundation for how to get deals done between BRICS countries. It's a start. As long as this dispute exists, BRICS cannot advance running the risk of being a great idea that went nowhere.
I think Russia only needs to move a small step back in gas pricing. PRC was not that reliable a business partner in the past (ask Sukhoi), and China needs gas anyway. I also like commentator Denis idea (above) to invite China to become a minority shareholder in the project. The original Siberia pipeline was focused on the needs of China's northeast (Manchuria) to replace its depleted coal. However, the whole north China and Chinese northwest also can use some imported gas, especially when China is moving its MIC further west.
To push the same idea a little bit more: both the proposed pipeline through Kazakhstan and the previous pipeline through Mongolia can both invite Mongolia and Kazakhstan to take minority shares in the project in exchange for the land access fees/lease. Kazakhstan is well known to have large natural gas reserve looking for path to export to the west. But if there is a buyer from the east, I don't think Kazakhstan would take an issue there. The same can be said about gas/oil in Mongolia. Note the total business scope and profits available to Russia are reduced, maybe even more so than the gutted gas deal between China and Russia. However, each trade happening inside BRICS and the global south is a blow to USD hegemony. Due to China's own projects in developing oil/gas in China's northwest, pipelines entering Xinjiang from Kazakhstan can eventually link to China's own domestic pipeline between northern China and China's northwest.
Of course, the whole scope does not have to be this big in the beginning, but it is a strategic option Russia has to consider now due to its long term goals and effect.