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Biden’s Reaction To Brazil’s Latest Election Shows That The US Prefers Lula Over Bolsonaro
Unlike during the beginning of the last decade, the US isn’t backing right-wing disruptions, conspiring to overthrow a bonafide multipolar leader (who happens to have been the one whose ouster they previously orchestrated), or discrediting that selfsame figure. To the contrary, the US is in favor of a peaceful transfer of power from the same man who its intelligence agencies indirectly helped enter into power, has recognized the legitimacy of the latest election, and is actually eager to continue expanding bilateral relations according to Biden’s statement.
The New Cold War between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the jointly BRICS- and SCO-led Global South over the future of the global systemic transition makes it easier than ever for observers to prematurely arrive at zero-sum conclusions about the intentions of various countries and their leaders. Nevertheless, that oversimplistic paradigm of understanding was just shattered after Brazil’s latest presidential elections since the outcome proved how complicated everything truly is right now.
Bolsonaro was narrowly defeated, though has thus far refused to concede at the time of writing on Tuesday morning Moscow time. He was hitherto considered pro-US in all respects due to his path to the presidency having been created by that country throughout the course of its “lawfare”-driven Hybrid War on Brazil. Many observers must have thus been surprised when Biden congratulated his rival Lula, who’s returning to lead his country for the third time in one of the greatest comeback stories in history.
It's also worth pointing out that there doesn’t appear to be any foreign support for the protests that are presently being carried out by Bolsonaro’s supporters, some of whom are blocking crucial transportation corridors across Brazil. Unlike during the beginning of the last decade, the US isn’t backing right-wing disruptions, conspiring to overthrow a bonafide multipolar leader (who happens to have been the one whose ouster they previously orchestrated), or discrediting that selfsame figure.
To the contrary, the US is in favor of a peaceful transfer of power from the same man who its intelligence agencies indirectly helped enter into power, has recognized the legitimacy of the latest election, and is actually eager to continue expanding bilateral relations according to Biden’s statement. All of this shows that “The Geostrategic Consequences Of Lula’s Re-Election Aren’t As Clear-Cut As Some Might Think”, which was elaborated upon a bit more at length in the preceding hyperlink.
The purpose of the present piece isn’t to rehash those previously shared points but to build upon them from complementary angles. To that end, a few intriguing observations will be shared below with the intent of generating a more substantive discussion on social media and elsewhere among those who are interested in this subject. That being said, here are a few points for everyone to consider going forward, which contradict prior expectations and prove that there are exceptions to existing models:
* Bolsonaro’s Reported Plot To Manipulate The Vote Didn’t Have US Backing
The US quite clearly didn’t want to help Bolsonaro remain in power no matter what, hence why its intelligence agencies played no role whatsoever in his reported plot to manipulate the vote through various means.
* The US Disapproved Of His Pragmatic Foreign Policy Towards China & Russia
In what was certainly a shock for many observers, Bolsonaro’s foreign policy towards China and Russia was actually quite pragmatic in the sense that he backtracked on his anti-Chinese campaign rhetoric and also refused to sanction Russia, possibly due to pressure from his agriculturally focused constituents.
* Bolsonaro Blocked The US’ Total Capture Of The Brazilian State
For whatever his reasons may have been, Bolsonaro failed to fulfill the most important geostrategic task that was expected of him by his US intelligence patrons who helped facilitate his rise to power, and that was enabling the declining unipolar hegemon to capture total control of the Brazilian state.
* Brazil Continued Aspiring For Strategic Autonomy (Albeit In A Different Way)
Bolsonaro and Lula have very different worldviews, yet Brazil under both of their leaderships continued aspiring for strategic autonomy in the global systemic transition to multipolarity, which suggests that they each wanted a similar place for their country in the world but sought to go about it very differently.
* Lula Has More In Common With The Ruling US Elite Nowadays Than Bolsonaro Does
Apart from their opposite stances on some sensitive foreign policy issues like Palestine and Venezuela in spite of their similar stance towards China and Russia, the primary difference between Bolsonaro and Lula is their domestic vision, which the latter has more in common with the ruling US elite nowadays.
* US Liberals Hope To Hijack & Derail Brazil’s Socialist Movement
Therein might lie one of the answers to why the US prefers Lula over Bolsonaro since its ruling Democrat elite hope that their liberal ideology can hijack and derail Brazil’s socialist movement through cultural wars and socialist-sounding rhetoric designed to mislead those targeted masses away from their goal.
* “Wokeism” Wasn’t Yet A Thing When The US Orchestrated Lula’s Overthrow
The US’ “lawfare”-driven Hybrid War on Brazil was carried out as punishment for Lula and his successor’s independent foreign policy and occurred during a time when “wokeism” wasn’t yet a thing, hence why the former ruling Democrat elite wasn’t able to try to co-opt the Workers’ Party (PT).
* The US Is Still Against Brazil Practicing An Independent Foreign Policy
Irrespective of whichever ideological faction is ruling the US at any given time, its elite will always consistently be against Brazil practicing an independent foreign policy out of fear that its grand strategic consequences can deal a deathblow to their declining unipolar hegemon’s hemispheric influence.
* The Hybrid War On Brazil Might Thus Transform Into A Hybrid War On The PT
With the preceding insight in mind, the US’ Hybrid War on Brazil might thus transform into a Hybrid War on the PT aimed at hijacking and derailing the hemisphere’s largest socialist movement by corrupting it into a liberal Trojan Horse that’ll mislead the party from its goal while worsening domestic divisions.
* Bolsonaro Might Ultimately Do More For The US In Opposition Than He Ever Did While In Power
Building upon that, the evolving Hybrid War on Brazil via the attempted co-opting of liberal-aligned elements within the PT could occur in parallel with US intelligence amplifying cultural fault lines in order to manipulate Bolsonaro’s movement into functioning as its agent of chaos to further pressure the PT.
* The US’ Strategy Of Tension Won’t Ever Subside Unless Brazil Fully Submits To It
The final point is that the US is expected to continue pursuing its unipolar hegemonic agenda in Brazil through the constant recalibration of its Hybrid Warfare strategy that’ll result in the continued exacerbation of tensions unless that targeted multipolar Great Power fully submits to Washington’s will.
Putting it all together, the points that were shared above very strongly suggest that it’s premature for Brazilians to expect relief from US pressure after Lula’s election. To be sure, the US is probing the PT’s grand strategic intentions at the moment to discover whether that party’s worldview has evolved to the point where there might nowadays be more common ground with the US’ ruling Democrat elite than before, but that doesn’t in and of itself mean that relations have entered a completely new phase.
Rather, the US is flexibly adapting to changing circumstances in an opportunistic way aimed at advancing its goals through different means than before. Paving the way for Bolsonaro’s rise to power changed certain aspects of Brazil’s strategic calculations but nevertheless failed to result in the US capturing total control of that country. In response, the latest approach appears to be an attempt to hijack and derail the PT through hyper-liberal ideological means aimed at misleading it away from its socialist mission.
To that end, certain cultural commonalities between the PT and the US’ ruling Democrat elite might be exploited as inroads for gaining the trust of key members and constituents, not to mention creating a pretext for US intelligence to amplify cultural differences for the purpose of provoking right-wingers. This dual policy of approaching the PT in a friendly manner while also working behind its back by encouraging Bolsonaro’s movement to disrupt Brazilian society in protest is par for the course.
The US will always continually seek to advance its grand strategic interests as its leadership understands them to be, which is sometimes viewed differently depending on the ideological faction in power but nevertheless always aims to strengthen its unipolar hegemony no matter what. In the contemporary New Cold War context with respect to Brazil, the US’ ruling Democrat elite are trying to co-opt the PT just like Trump sought to do the same with Bolsonaro on a similar ideologically driven basis.
The shortcoming of this strategy is that neither of the US’ ruling ideological factions respect Brazil’s UN-enshrined right to formulate independent policies, which always leads to them overstepping and thus provoking a negative reaction from their counterparts that complicates its hegemonic agenda. That being the case, it can therefore be expected that something similar will happen with Lula unless the US hijacks his party first, failing which it’ll resort to manipulating right-wingers into destabilizing Brazil.