If the military-strategic dynamics decisively shift in NATO’s favor due to the bloc dispatching more modern arms to Kiev at the expense of its members’ minimum national security needs like Stoltenberg implied might happen, then peace would be ruled out and Russia’s defeat would become possible. In that scenario, China might arm Moscow in order to maintain its balance of power with NATO despite the maximum sanctions this could prompt the West to impose against it in order to avert the worse scenarios of nuclear escalation or Russia’s “Balkanization”.
Thanks for the article, some interesting info regarding diplomacy from China. Can you provide a better explanation for the so called 'more advanced weapons' from NATO ? The NATO countries seem to be backing away from donating modern tanks and fighter planes. There is some debate about supplying longer range missles to the Ukraine (for targets within the Russian federation) , but these will require more ISR support from the USA in order to be effective, which will surely lead to Russia disabling American satellites. Im not aware of a military technology advantage enjoyed by NATO, can you elaborate ?
Balkanisation won't happen! If the push comes to a shove then Russia will use nukes in Ukraine! The West isn't THAT stupid and risk a nuclear war! The US knows it is extremely vulnerable to Russia's hypersonic weapons and it is only a matter of time before Biden is forced to resign. Just watch this space!
Andrew - excellent summary -
No to Russia balkanisation, infact nothing like that will happen. I support china's moves in this conflict.
Good geopolitical analysis, thanks
China cannot tolerate Russia being completely defeated in Ukraine, because as the article points out, this would lead to the Balkanization of Russia -it would also be the end of the deepening of the New Silk Road- and to the next goal of the US imperialists, the destruction of China itself.
However, it is in the very hands of Moscow to avoid such a defeat, resorting to nuclear weapons if it starts to be defeated in the conventional conflict it has waged so far.
What China knows behind the scenes is that the conflict is escalating out of control and leading to a nuclear confrontation, even a general one, that is not limited to the use of tactical weapons on the battlefield. Demonstrating this escalation are the recent events in Transnistria and Belarus, in which apparently the suicidal and most fanatical sectors of NATO and the US are seeking to spread the war and reach nuclear exchange.
From Macron and the other NATO clowns, there is nothing to hope for, they will faithfully obey their US master until the end. Let's hope for the good of humanity that Russia manages to prevail soon with the use of conventional weapons and Ukraine, on the verge of total defeat, agrees to negotiate peace, even against its patrons in Washington. (Which is also very doubtful).
Russia will prevail in this war and usher in the new EurAsian dominance of the global order.
The defeat of Ukraine and NATO is imminent and regardless of what the West does without declaring war with Russia.
Europe will bifurcate - core Euroland and peripehery Europe; the latter will join with USA/Canada to form a new North Atlantic Alliance. The former (anchored down by Germany and France) will join EurAsia.
China sees Russia prevailing and dominating EurAsia and is now elevating its diplomacy to insert its own relevance. Russia will look at its activities and appreciate it as a token only.
There's a lot of 'interpretation'/speculation about China's motives, and a major jump in assumptions about NATO's 'more modern' weapons shifting the proxy war to the prospect of Russian defeat. But yes the article is a good summary of the geopolitics at play. In the end perhaps, if China is pushed to arm Russia, it might be a good thing though WW3 would be unleashed, as the US hegemony efforts will not stop without a decisive defeat of NATO in Europe and the US in the Pacific.
Europe has been de-militarized, next step is to de-Nazify. That might happen next winter as there will be no gas reserves.