It's of the highest importance during this time to apply President Putin’s advice against indulging in wishful thinking by eschewing “5D chess” conspiracy theories and other coping mechanisms so as to not artificially inflate the hopes of Russia’s supporters and thus set them up for another possibly impending fall.
Concerning Russian withdrawal from the west bank of Dnieper River, with no Russian troops there the situation with the Kakhovka dam is actually - reversed. Now any advancing of Ukrainian troops into the empty area is challenged with the possibility that now Russian forces destroy the dam thuis efficiently flooding the majority of Ukrainian advancing troops. That Dam is not Damocles sword only for Russia but for Ukrainian troops as well: That is why Ukrainian side is suspicious (with a good reason) about possible trap there. With the Kakhovka dam destruction hanging around, Kherson city and area is not safe to defend for both sides either.
Withdrawal of Russian forces from the right bank has more - moral impact on Russian troops and public than true military impact.
In other hand I have to admit that, in my opinion, the whole "Special operation" was flooded with failures, shortcomings, wrong assessments, bad intelligence and bad political decisions.
I will repeat myself countless times: "You do not draw the weapon from the holster if you are not psychologically ready to shoot to kill"
In this scenario it means- you NEVER start a war with politically and military limited goals. There's no such thing as "special operation of denazification and demilitarization". That was the first and the greatest blunder of political and military leadership in Moscow. The second great mistake was described even in Tsung Tzu Art of war: Never underestimate your opponent. Russia made very succesful Blitz Krieg in the first months but ultimately failed in later months forgetting immortal Tsung Tzu Art of war words particularly:
2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.
3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.
here is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.
9. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.
10. Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.
and the most important one where Russian intelligence failed big is
18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Russian intelligence failed to provide good assessments and predictions to the political and military leadership about Ukrainian readiness to fight in prolonged war, about Western supporter readiness to support and massively supply Ukraine with ammo, armaments and supplies, about moral grounds of the troops to have prolonged fight, about political and military leadership of Ukraine to sacrifice massively own troops and even civilians to stop Russian troops in advancing.
To conclude, - any war waged with in advance limited political and military goals is doomed to fail. If you engage in military conflict, you must in advance be ready for a total war.
Interesting article, aside from that statement "Unlike during the chaotic pullback from Kharkov Region that resulted in it losing a lot of military equipment in order to save the lives of its servicemen". This is false. They commenced the pullback 2-3 weeks prior and left minimal equipment... But the more recent pullback was better planned and sensible. What you've not discussed are the massive losses (5-10x higher) suffered by Ukraine forces with every attack or advance made. A good general, I was taught will always sacrifice territory to save lives in the short term and wear down the enemy...
At least two or three important factors come into play. 1) There thousands (who knows how many) mercenaries led by "English speakers" who are carrying the fight and not the depleted and demoralized Ukrainian Army. 2) Anything short of a total victory for Russia is a huge failure because the cancer and threat will remain. To de-nazify and de-NATOfy Ukraine are major objectives laid out by VV Putin repeatedly. Anything less, Russia loses and VV Putin risks everything. 3) A friend came home from the Border with Ukraine yesterday, only a few Km from Kherson. She said the mood was universal: everyone depressed and feeling betrayed. Treason was the word on the lips of those refugees, and many of her friends in Crimea. Again, civilians, Russia promised to protect, are left to be slaughtered. 4) Why no speculation about the real possibility of very bad information given to Putin from the very beginning and throughout this SMO? Is it hubris, incompetence, intelligence failures, or could it be moles, traitors in the Kremlin and military?
Bottom line? Russia's enemies in the US, bent on destroying Russia and Putin, are emboldened. At home and abroad, Russia's supporters see this as an 0-2 count! No balls and two strikes to use a baseball metaphor.
I am not one to post doom and gloom forecasts. The first casualty of war is truth. I believe Putin and Russians know what is at stake. This is the ebb and flow of any war. Mistakes are made. Ukraine is a failed state with a depleted and demoralized army. The psychopaths in Washington don't care about Ukraine. Their own commanders, special ops, NATO personnel, and their paid mercenaries can continue to forestall the obvious outcome for a while longer. Let us see what winter brings.
Good article covering all views and perspectives.
Concerning Russian withdrawal from the west bank of Dnieper River, with no Russian troops there the situation with the Kakhovka dam is actually - reversed. Now any advancing of Ukrainian troops into the empty area is challenged with the possibility that now Russian forces destroy the dam thuis efficiently flooding the majority of Ukrainian advancing troops. That Dam is not Damocles sword only for Russia but for Ukrainian troops as well: That is why Ukrainian side is suspicious (with a good reason) about possible trap there. With the Kakhovka dam destruction hanging around, Kherson city and area is not safe to defend for both sides either.
Withdrawal of Russian forces from the right bank has more - moral impact on Russian troops and public than true military impact.
In other hand I have to admit that, in my opinion, the whole "Special operation" was flooded with failures, shortcomings, wrong assessments, bad intelligence and bad political decisions.
I will repeat myself countless times: "You do not draw the weapon from the holster if you are not psychologically ready to shoot to kill"
In this scenario it means- you NEVER start a war with politically and military limited goals. There's no such thing as "special operation of denazification and demilitarization". That was the first and the greatest blunder of political and military leadership in Moscow. The second great mistake was described even in Tsung Tzu Art of war: Never underestimate your opponent. Russia made very succesful Blitz Krieg in the first months but ultimately failed in later months forgetting immortal Tsung Tzu Art of war words particularly:
2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.
3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.
here is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.
9. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.
10. Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.
and the most important one where Russian intelligence failed big is
18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Russian intelligence failed to provide good assessments and predictions to the political and military leadership about Ukrainian readiness to fight in prolonged war, about Western supporter readiness to support and massively supply Ukraine with ammo, armaments and supplies, about moral grounds of the troops to have prolonged fight, about political and military leadership of Ukraine to sacrifice massively own troops and even civilians to stop Russian troops in advancing.
To conclude, - any war waged with in advance limited political and military goals is doomed to fail. If you engage in military conflict, you must in advance be ready for a total war.
Interesting article, aside from that statement "Unlike during the chaotic pullback from Kharkov Region that resulted in it losing a lot of military equipment in order to save the lives of its servicemen". This is false. They commenced the pullback 2-3 weeks prior and left minimal equipment... But the more recent pullback was better planned and sensible. What you've not discussed are the massive losses (5-10x higher) suffered by Ukraine forces with every attack or advance made. A good general, I was taught will always sacrifice territory to save lives in the short term and wear down the enemy...
At least two or three important factors come into play. 1) There thousands (who knows how many) mercenaries led by "English speakers" who are carrying the fight and not the depleted and demoralized Ukrainian Army. 2) Anything short of a total victory for Russia is a huge failure because the cancer and threat will remain. To de-nazify and de-NATOfy Ukraine are major objectives laid out by VV Putin repeatedly. Anything less, Russia loses and VV Putin risks everything. 3) A friend came home from the Border with Ukraine yesterday, only a few Km from Kherson. She said the mood was universal: everyone depressed and feeling betrayed. Treason was the word on the lips of those refugees, and many of her friends in Crimea. Again, civilians, Russia promised to protect, are left to be slaughtered. 4) Why no speculation about the real possibility of very bad information given to Putin from the very beginning and throughout this SMO? Is it hubris, incompetence, intelligence failures, or could it be moles, traitors in the Kremlin and military?
Bottom line? Russia's enemies in the US, bent on destroying Russia and Putin, are emboldened. At home and abroad, Russia's supporters see this as an 0-2 count! No balls and two strikes to use a baseball metaphor.
I am not one to post doom and gloom forecasts. The first casualty of war is truth. I believe Putin and Russians know what is at stake. This is the ebb and flow of any war. Mistakes are made. Ukraine is a failed state with a depleted and demoralized army. The psychopaths in Washington don't care about Ukraine. Their own commanders, special ops, NATO personnel, and their paid mercenaries can continue to forestall the obvious outcome for a while longer. Let us see what winter brings.