There are four possible scenarios for how everything could unfold: 1) Armenia remains in the CSTO and doesn’t receive US military equipment; 2) Armenian remains in the bloc but ends up receiving such aid; 3) Armenia announces its withdrawal from the bloc; 4) and Armenia unilaterally hosts US forces and is kicked out of the CSTO.
Armenians hate the Azeris as much as they hate the Turks. They have good reasons to hate them, but it makes them emotionally labile. Russia is more methodical, and calculating, and frankly the geopolitical situation requires care, but the Armenians will always demand more and faster than the Russians are willing to provide. Armenia is trapped in a very tenuous position, but their only real security option is Russia. I hope they realize it, and temper their expectations.
In the most recent Azeri attacks, Armenia wasted no time in invoking the CSTO, while at the same time refusing to mobilize its own forces. Their President said "there is no need right now". This has to be infuriating for the Russians, and makes it seem like they want Russia to fight their battles for them. This attitude is also reflected in the the Armenian diaspora - happy to send money, wave flags, "raise awareness" and place bumper stickers, but not willing to go and fight, while young men in the country leave to avoid military service. This is certainly not a winning combination for a small country surrounded by much larger and stronger enemies.
My feeling is that the Armenians will not be satisfied with anything less than massive Russian assaults on Azerbaijan. The question is will they learn to live with dissatisfaction, or enter into an Ukraine style suicide pact with the West? I'm sure the GAE would be willing to fight to the last Armenian just to give Putin a slight headache.
Even the most clear-headed Armenian president will never be able to act rationally due to the massive emotional pressures the population will place on him. If I was leader of Armenia I would do everything possible to join the Russian Federation. It will mean giving up on Artsahk ambitions, but they can always use all that diaspora money to build homes, relocate their people, and thrive as part of the Russian Federation. I think this is the only path that ends well.
I think no matter one spins this, Russia comes out looking bad, unfortunately. Regardless of expectations vs. reality, and what countries can or not expect from the CSTO, Russia looks either weak - unable or unwilling to come to the defense of a fellow member, or at least talk strongly with Azerbaidjan - or cynic - ie. putting its relationship with Azerbaidjan and Turkey above considerations of defending a CSTO member. The fact is, that fact-checking responsibilities does not imply that Russia couldn't for instance move a stronger force to the borders interposing itself between the 2 contenders.
I think the USA played this very well here, and the fact that the Armenian government is probably being duplicitous here doesn't help the optics in the end: Russia seems not to give the CSTO any sort of importance between its immediate interests.
Armenians hate the Azeris as much as they hate the Turks. They have good reasons to hate them, but it makes them emotionally labile. Russia is more methodical, and calculating, and frankly the geopolitical situation requires care, but the Armenians will always demand more and faster than the Russians are willing to provide. Armenia is trapped in a very tenuous position, but their only real security option is Russia. I hope they realize it, and temper their expectations.
In the most recent Azeri attacks, Armenia wasted no time in invoking the CSTO, while at the same time refusing to mobilize its own forces. Their President said "there is no need right now". This has to be infuriating for the Russians, and makes it seem like they want Russia to fight their battles for them. This attitude is also reflected in the the Armenian diaspora - happy to send money, wave flags, "raise awareness" and place bumper stickers, but not willing to go and fight, while young men in the country leave to avoid military service. This is certainly not a winning combination for a small country surrounded by much larger and stronger enemies.
My feeling is that the Armenians will not be satisfied with anything less than massive Russian assaults on Azerbaijan. The question is will they learn to live with dissatisfaction, or enter into an Ukraine style suicide pact with the West? I'm sure the GAE would be willing to fight to the last Armenian just to give Putin a slight headache.
Even the most clear-headed Armenian president will never be able to act rationally due to the massive emotional pressures the population will place on him. If I was leader of Armenia I would do everything possible to join the Russian Federation. It will mean giving up on Artsahk ambitions, but they can always use all that diaspora money to build homes, relocate their people, and thrive as part of the Russian Federation. I think this is the only path that ends well.
I think no matter one spins this, Russia comes out looking bad, unfortunately. Regardless of expectations vs. reality, and what countries can or not expect from the CSTO, Russia looks either weak - unable or unwilling to come to the defense of a fellow member, or at least talk strongly with Azerbaidjan - or cynic - ie. putting its relationship with Azerbaidjan and Turkey above considerations of defending a CSTO member. The fact is, that fact-checking responsibilities does not imply that Russia couldn't for instance move a stronger force to the borders interposing itself between the 2 contenders.
I think the USA played this very well here, and the fact that the Armenian government is probably being duplicitous here doesn't help the optics in the end: Russia seems not to give the CSTO any sort of importance between its immediate interests.