The reality is that the entire course of International Relations has irreversibly shifted due to the black swan event of India decisively playing the aforementioned role with respect to Russia, which in turn neutralized the “Thucydides Trap” scenario by creating the systemic conditions that arguably derailed China’s superpower trajectory.
The US-led West’s Golden Billion is waging a maximum pressure campaign against India as punishment for its multipolar leadership’s refusal to unilaterally concede on this rising Asian Great Power’s objective national interests by condemning and sanctioning Russia. Information warfare represents the tip of this Hybrid War spear, so it’s not surprising that the perception managers at CNN just unleashed a related disinformation attack against that South Asian civilization-state. In their latest piece about how “India’s words are anti-war, but New Delhi’s actions are propping up Putin’s regime”, this globally influential outlet attempts to discredit their target’s grand strategy and soft power.
Consistent with the artificially manufactured information warfare narratives pushed by those unipolar liberal-globalist sympathizers in the Indian intelligentsia like Happymon Jacob as well as US Government-financed experts such as the ones recently interviewed by GZERO Media (which deceitfully didn’t disclose their financial ties that might have influenced the insight that they shared), CNN recycles the claims that India is hypocritical, self-serving, and thus can’t be relied upon or trusted by the West. Its careful balancing act between the Golden Billion and the BRICS-led Global South of which it’s a part is dismissed in favor of fearmongering about its supposedly irresponsible role in the world.
While CNN admittedly touches upon India’s interests in preemptively averting Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China by serving as its strategic partner’s irreplaceable valve from Western pressure instead of letting Moscow become so desperate that it begs Beijing for support on the latter’s terms that could decisively shift the balance of influence in Eurasia, the outlet doesn’t give this dimension the attention that it deserves. As explained in the hyperlinked analyses from the preceding paragraph connected to Happymon Jacob and GZERO Media, this is Delhi’s primary policy driver.
Instead of “propping up Putin’s regime”, which neither it nor anyone else’s purchase of discounted energy does since Russia still retains enough reserves to continue funding its special operation even without those deals, India is actually working to stabilize the global systemic transition to multipolarity. This is being accomplished by accelerating these associated complex processes’ evolution towards tripolarity through the creation of a third pole of influence with Russia (and also Iran) in the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the changing world order.
Had Russia been left to deal with unprecedented Western pressure on its own, then it would almost certainly have been placed in a position where it eventually becomes desperate enough to beg China for support on the latter’s terms, which could have in turn turbocharged that country’s superpower trajectory. The bi-multipolar status quo that’s characterized by the American and (aspiring) Chinese superpowers exerting the most influence over the international system would have thus been entrenched instead of evolved, which would have limited the strategic autonomy of all other countries.
Instead, “The Ukrainian Conflict Might Have Already Derailed China’s Superpower Trajectory” as a result of India unexpectedly becoming Russia’s alternative valve from Western pressure in order to preemptively avert its partner’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China, as well as the other related factors elaborated upon in the preceding hyperlinked analysis. By facilitating the global systemic transition’s evolution towards tripolarity prior to its ultimate form of complex multipolarity (“multiplexity”), India tremendously increased the strategic options available to all other countries.
Furthermore, by offsetting China’s superpower trajectory and thus increasing the odds that the People’s Republic recalibrates its grand strategy by settling for becoming the most economically influential Great Power in the international system instead of the declining unipolar hegemon’s potential replacement, India reduced the chances that the US would consider resorting to kinetic means to this end instead. In other words, the so-called “Thucydides Trap” might have just been averted seeing as how America doesn’t have any real reason anymore to fear China replacing its former role in global affairs.
There’s no doubt that the US will continue attempting to simultaneously contain China and Russia, but these efforts will essentially be aimed at carving out a comfortable role for itself in the multipolar transition through the strengthening of its “sphere of influence” in their respective halves of Eurasia instead of contemplating a major war with the People’s Republic in order to stop its rise as a superpower. A larger conflict can still be sparked by miscalculation, which always remains a possibility, but the worst-case scenario just became less likely as a result of India stabilizing this selfsame transition.
To remind the reader, it did so by serving as Russia’s alternative valve from Western pressure and thus preemptively averting its partner’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China, which would have supercharged its superpower trajectory and thus made a major war with the US comparatively more likely due to that resultant dynamic’s exacerbation of the “Thucydides Trap”. America’s perception managers like those at CNN have yet to realize how much everything has changed, which explains why they’re still lashing out at India for retaining its strategic relations with Russia instead of praising it.
The reality is that the entire course of International Relations has irreversibly shifted due to the black swan event of India decisively playing the aforementioned role with respect to Russia, which in turn neutralized the “Thucydides Trap” scenario by creating the systemic conditions that arguably derailed China’s superpower trajectory. This will inevitably become self-evident to objective observers with time, including American strategists, though it might nevertheless never be reflected in the Mainstream Media (MSM) due to the US’ interests in continuing to fearmonger about China and Russia.
-آپ کا کوئی دین ایمان نہیں
-جو روس کی سائیڈ لیتا ہے آپ اس کی تعریف میں رطب اللسان ہوتے ہیں
-ایسے لوگوں کو لفافہ کہا جاتا ہے
The "multipolar world" itself negates the Thucydides Trap as it also undermines globalism. In the neoliberal global order, the world is a network of competing production centers, all of which benefit the global center. The result of globalism is actually poverty for the producers as they compete for necessary trade with other countries, lacking any kind of independence or sovereignty. This has been the goal for some time. Michael Hudson points out how the IMF and World Bank encourage the development of export products rather than local manufacturing, thus ensuring dependence of affected nations.
In all this plan is a hint of the old mercantilism where a country like Germany used to always produce a trade surplus and corresponding accounts relative to its trading partners. We take a country like Russia who as a result of ongoing Western sanctions, has become mostly self-sustainable. In effect, Russia needs little from the outside world and Western sanctions have small effect. Of course, Russian oil can buy Indian silk and Chinese electronics, which are nice but not vital. This is how 'trade' should work. A people that has a surplus of something nice gives it to another people who in turn, give back something nice that they have surplus. Rather than being the backbone of a competitive financial world order, trade in the multipolar world becomes an enjoyable fruit of cooperation.