Debunking Former Secretary Of Defense Mattis’ Fearmongering About China Invading India

What Mattis was actually trying to do is manipulate Indians’ perceptions about the Ukrainian Conflict, which is indisputably a NATO-Russian proxy war, as yet another attempt by the US-led West’s Golden Billion into coercing that globally significant Great Power into taking their side in the New Cold War.

Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis fearmongered during his participation at this year’s Raisina Dialogue, which is India’s premier annual conference on International Relations, that China might be emboldened by Russia’s special operation in Ukraine into invading India. In his words, “If Russia is successful in violating the sovereignty of that country (Ukraine) why would China not be more attuned to move against India along LAC or in the South China Sea against Vietnam or the Philippines.”

What Mattis was actually trying to do is manipulate Indians’ perceptions about the Ukrainian Conflict, which is indisputably a NATO-Russian proxy war, as yet another attempt by the US-led West’s Golden Billion into coercing that globally significant Great Power into taking their side in the New Cold War. India’s pragmatic policy of principled neutrality has resulted in it reaping grand strategic dividends, however, hence why it’s futile for anyone to attempt to get it to change course.

Nevertheless, it’s still important to debunk Mattis’ fearmongering about China invading India in order for nobody to be misled by his ridiculous rhetoric. The Sino-Indo border dispute is independent of the NATO-Russian security dilemma that prompted Moscow into resorting to military means in defense of its national security red lines in Ukraine after that US-led bloc clandestinely crossed them there. The problems between those two neighboring countries aren’t influenced by that proxy war in any way.

Those in India who are alarmed by the West’s increasingly frequent reports that China might soon arm Russia, the real reasons for which that scenario might unfold are comprehensively explained here, should remember the global strategic context in which that could happen. Such a decision would immediately prompt sanctions from the Golden Billion that would in turn immensely accelerate the ongoing decoupling between China and the West, thus decisively reshaping International Relations.

It's unrealistic to imagine that the People’s Republic would open up a hot “containment” front against itself along the Himalayas by invading India like Mattis fearmongered since that would be counterproductive from the perspective of its objective interests. Moreover, the equipment that it could prospectively ship to Russia would only be relevant to ground operations and not naval ones, thus meaning that the only scenario in which those wares could be employed by China is against India.

With this in mind, it wouldn’t make sense for China to invade India after partially depleting some of its same stockpiles that could be used in such a campaign. Rather, the very fact that the People’s Republic is reportedly countenancing the shipment of lethal aid to its strategic Eurasian partner strongly suggests that it has no serious intentions of provoking a large-scale conflict with India otherwise it wouldn’t risk reducing its military capabilities through those means.

Another point debunking Mattis’ fearmongering about this scenario is that newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang attended last week’s meeting of his counterparts in Delhi and also met with External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. If China was truly preparing for a major war with India, then it would therefore follow that it could have either boycotted the event that this supposedly targeted state just hosted or at least would have eschewed meeting with its EAM.

To be clear, Foreign Minister Qin’s participation in the latest Indian-hosted G20 meeting and his talks with EAM Jaishankar shouldn’t be interpreted as a meaningful improvement in bilateral relations either, but they simply serve as further proof that China isn’t planning to invade India like Mattis predicted. Considering the points made in this piece, observers should therefore dismiss his ridiculous rhetoric and not allow themselves to be misled by it like he hoped would happen.