It’s surprising that South Korea prefers for there to be more North Korean troops along the DMZ to fight against in the event that war resumes than in Ukraine and is even willing to deplete some of its gargantuan stockpiles that it’s built up to prepare for that worst-case scenario just for Kiev’s sake.
Because previously the SK government promised not to get involved, then came the figleaf of "we're selling weapons but only ro replenish US stockpilles" (which was also surely a lie).
But why do they need any explanation or excuse at all? Can't they first say: 'we won't get involved', and then later: 'now we decided to sell them some ammo and some machinery'?
Who are the excuses for, their citizens? Why would the citizens care either way? And if it's not for their citizens, then who?
If they are seriously dependent on Russia (which I doubt), then this excuse is not helping them. It has to be for their own public. But I'm surprised that this would be such a controversy in S.Korea that they need excuses.
If pressed to the extreme this will hit profit of Korean Chaebol, who are nearly as important to South Korean government survival as Washington. Next, rising prices without a good excuse for sacrifice will bring out the already suffering Korean people, who as the HK Police found out during the WTO circus in Hong Kong, eat regular teargas as a condiment.
There is one perfectly good reason for Putin to use North Korean troops if they are available--for every North Korean on the line, there's one less potential Russian casualty. Putin is a Russian patriot first and foremost, so he would think that way.
OTOH, Ukraine needs all those South Korean artillery shells to keep feeding the profits of the Western MIC for as long as possible, so from where I sit BOTH scenarios are very possible. I just won't believe North Korean troops are there until I actually see them.
South Korean presidents after Park Chung-hee's assassination are not decision-makers. They just follow orders. The same can be said about Taiwan's presidents: they are not decision-makers after the death of Chiang Ching-kuo. Whether Japanese Prime ministers all fall into this category after Abe Shinzo's assassination remains to be observed for a while. It is really the tragedy of small vassal states. I would cut SK behavior some slacks for its recent behavior. In a sense, SK behavior suggests Kim of NK making the shows for Americans had scared his SK audience to cause more harm eventually damaging the goal of unifying the Korean Penisula. However, since Kim does not intend to unify SK, Kim would not care what SK do unless SK actions directly threaten NK or him personally. If people have doubts that North Koreans are working in Russia or Ukraine because they think Russia doesn't need these North Koreans, then at least they should recognize the deep appreciation Kim has toward Putin (and ditto that for Xi). And don't forget Mr. Putin is likely NOT a qualitative thinker to think like "we can win it alone so we shall do so." Instead, Mr. Putin is more likely to be a quantitative thinker and would consider "yes we can win it alone but how can I reduce the cost on the Russian people for this win". I am not saying NK troops are inside Ukraine to fight or deny that. I am simply pointing out the obvious why this may happen, if not yet.
South Koreans and Japanese are in this state somewhat involuntarily due to US boots on the ground. Taiwan, however, is in this state somewhat voluntarily. Note that the USA had basically written Taiwan off when officially recognizing the PRC. However, the USA keeps Taiwan as a pawn for its exchange values: either to buy a major concession from China, or to use Taiwan to provoke and fight China, or even let Taiwan become another Ukraine. But it seems the USA has finally realized that Taiwan is not Ukraine and the Chinese are not Russians. The provoker role has been assigned to Phillippine, Forcing TSMC to build a fab (and TSMC will be forced to build more fabs in the USA) is the preparation to make the exchange. I predicted that TSMC's success in the USA cannot last long because TSMC's success in Taiwan has something to do with the people of Taiwan, the timing of TSMC's launch and growth, and its founder Morris Chang personally. These conditions cannot be reproduced in Arizona or anywhere else in the USA.
Russia and NK just signed a mutual defence pact so it's only logical they would train together and also have observers studying each other's methods and systems.
I suspect Russia would also like to have NK guest workers replace some of the Central Asian workers currently in Russia, especially after the attack at the Crocus City Hall concert in March soured public opinion towards them, which had already been fairly bad. The situation is comparable to undocumented migrant workers in the USA. They're needed in some sectors of the economy, but not especially welcome from a social standpoint.
In the bigger picture, Russia is probably doing South Korea a favour - that is, if their talk of reunification is actually sincere. Increased trade and Russian investment will no doubt improve NK's economy and standard of living, making the transition to unification easier for both sides. The fly in the ointment is of course the US occupation, but that can't go on forever. Russian involvement in NK could at least lay some of the groundwork for reunification, especially if NK joins the BRICS, which seems likely at some point.
South Korea is still buying natural gas from Russia. If I was paid to speculate, then this is a play by corrupt factions in South Korean market to stimulate movements in spot gas prices. Next month same corrupt officials and their outside counters will pop the bubble to make for profitable shorts by signaling love for Kim or Putin.
Oh, also it could be a final effort to get Korea's economy in a tail spin and thus indirectly hit China by forcing resisting commercial players in Korea off Russian LNG and onto much more expensive and slow (therefore more stock must be held) American LNG, plus more money for Wall Street.
I suspect this entire issue is a tempest in a teapot.
1) Given reported Russian artillery production, it is hard to believe that any NK contribution would make a significant difference to them. Likewise the relatively small number of soldiers. NK is probably participating at its own request for international "optics," "strutting its stuff" to the West.
2) SK artillery contributions to Ukraine are unlikely to be large enough to do more than slightly prolong the inevitable.
Also, many have commented on the way in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed the perception of "industrial war," suggesting that military planners world-wide may have to revise upward their estimates of how much materiel to keep on hand against the possibility of such a conflict. Given this possibility, it is interesting that both NK and SK are actually willing to give up stockpiles rather than attempting to grow them.
If SK is depending on the US to replenish its stockpiles in the near future, they are bigger suckers than I thought. The dramatic shortfall in US production capability (and Western military production capability in general) has become clear in the last couple of years since this conflict started draining Western stockpiles.
It is a pretext, giving South Korean politicians cover to do what they are told to do.
It certainly seems so, but it's a weird pretext. And why do they need a pretext?
Because previously the SK government promised not to get involved, then came the figleaf of "we're selling weapons but only ro replenish US stockpilles" (which was also surely a lie).
But why do they need any explanation or excuse at all? Can't they first say: 'we won't get involved', and then later: 'now we decided to sell them some ammo and some machinery'?
Who are the excuses for, their citizens? Why would the citizens care either way? And if it's not for their citizens, then who?
Because SK purchased energy and resources from Russia, and Ukraine is not their fight.
If they are seriously dependent on Russia (which I doubt), then this excuse is not helping them. It has to be for their own public. But I'm surprised that this would be such a controversy in S.Korea that they need excuses.
It's not their fight.
If pressed to the extreme this will hit profit of Korean Chaebol, who are nearly as important to South Korean government survival as Washington. Next, rising prices without a good excuse for sacrifice will bring out the already suffering Korean people, who as the HK Police found out during the WTO circus in Hong Kong, eat regular teargas as a condiment.
There is one perfectly good reason for Putin to use North Korean troops if they are available--for every North Korean on the line, there's one less potential Russian casualty. Putin is a Russian patriot first and foremost, so he would think that way.
OTOH, Ukraine needs all those South Korean artillery shells to keep feeding the profits of the Western MIC for as long as possible, so from where I sit BOTH scenarios are very possible. I just won't believe North Korean troops are there until I actually see them.
South Korean presidents after Park Chung-hee's assassination are not decision-makers. They just follow orders. The same can be said about Taiwan's presidents: they are not decision-makers after the death of Chiang Ching-kuo. Whether Japanese Prime ministers all fall into this category after Abe Shinzo's assassination remains to be observed for a while. It is really the tragedy of small vassal states. I would cut SK behavior some slacks for its recent behavior. In a sense, SK behavior suggests Kim of NK making the shows for Americans had scared his SK audience to cause more harm eventually damaging the goal of unifying the Korean Penisula. However, since Kim does not intend to unify SK, Kim would not care what SK do unless SK actions directly threaten NK or him personally. If people have doubts that North Koreans are working in Russia or Ukraine because they think Russia doesn't need these North Koreans, then at least they should recognize the deep appreciation Kim has toward Putin (and ditto that for Xi). And don't forget Mr. Putin is likely NOT a qualitative thinker to think like "we can win it alone so we shall do so." Instead, Mr. Putin is more likely to be a quantitative thinker and would consider "yes we can win it alone but how can I reduce the cost on the Russian people for this win". I am not saying NK troops are inside Ukraine to fight or deny that. I am simply pointing out the obvious why this may happen, if not yet.
South Koreans and Japanese are in this state somewhat involuntarily due to US boots on the ground. Taiwan, however, is in this state somewhat voluntarily. Note that the USA had basically written Taiwan off when officially recognizing the PRC. However, the USA keeps Taiwan as a pawn for its exchange values: either to buy a major concession from China, or to use Taiwan to provoke and fight China, or even let Taiwan become another Ukraine. But it seems the USA has finally realized that Taiwan is not Ukraine and the Chinese are not Russians. The provoker role has been assigned to Phillippine, Forcing TSMC to build a fab (and TSMC will be forced to build more fabs in the USA) is the preparation to make the exchange. I predicted that TSMC's success in the USA cannot last long because TSMC's success in Taiwan has something to do with the people of Taiwan, the timing of TSMC's launch and growth, and its founder Morris Chang personally. These conditions cannot be reproduced in Arizona or anywhere else in the USA.
Thanks for this. The shinanigans become clear now.
I don't see any sort of problem with Friends helping each other!
Or maybe all this bruhaha about DRPK troops in Russia is projection:
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/south-korea-has-decided-to-openly
Russia and NK just signed a mutual defence pact so it's only logical they would train together and also have observers studying each other's methods and systems.
I suspect Russia would also like to have NK guest workers replace some of the Central Asian workers currently in Russia, especially after the attack at the Crocus City Hall concert in March soured public opinion towards them, which had already been fairly bad. The situation is comparable to undocumented migrant workers in the USA. They're needed in some sectors of the economy, but not especially welcome from a social standpoint.
A long article on the subject:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02634937.2023.2266519#abstract
In the bigger picture, Russia is probably doing South Korea a favour - that is, if their talk of reunification is actually sincere. Increased trade and Russian investment will no doubt improve NK's economy and standard of living, making the transition to unification easier for both sides. The fly in the ointment is of course the US occupation, but that can't go on forever. Russian involvement in NK could at least lay some of the groundwork for reunification, especially if NK joins the BRICS, which seems likely at some point.
South Korea is still buying natural gas from Russia. If I was paid to speculate, then this is a play by corrupt factions in South Korean market to stimulate movements in spot gas prices. Next month same corrupt officials and their outside counters will pop the bubble to make for profitable shorts by signaling love for Kim or Putin.
Oh, also it could be a final effort to get Korea's economy in a tail spin and thus indirectly hit China by forcing resisting commercial players in Korea off Russian LNG and onto much more expensive and slow (therefore more stock must be held) American LNG, plus more money for Wall Street.
I suspect this entire issue is a tempest in a teapot.
1) Given reported Russian artillery production, it is hard to believe that any NK contribution would make a significant difference to them. Likewise the relatively small number of soldiers. NK is probably participating at its own request for international "optics," "strutting its stuff" to the West.
2) SK artillery contributions to Ukraine are unlikely to be large enough to do more than slightly prolong the inevitable.
Also, many have commented on the way in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed the perception of "industrial war," suggesting that military planners world-wide may have to revise upward their estimates of how much materiel to keep on hand against the possibility of such a conflict. Given this possibility, it is interesting that both NK and SK are actually willing to give up stockpiles rather than attempting to grow them.
If SK is depending on the US to replenish its stockpiles in the near future, they are bigger suckers than I thought. The dramatic shortfall in US production capability (and Western military production capability in general) has become clear in the last couple of years since this conflict started draining Western stockpiles.