These lessons are: 1) prioritizing military goals over political ones; 2) the importance of superior intelligence; 3) insensitivity to public opinion; 4) the need for one’s “deep state” to be fully convinced of the ongoing conflict’s existential nature; and 5) practicing “radical decisiveness”.
I always appreciate your precise and balanced analysis, but it seems to me that you are here treating the latest Israel-Lebanon conflict as a conventional war, and I'm not sure this is the correct way of looking at it. Israel is a nuclear state with very advanced weaponry and free access to the resources of the most powerful country in the world, whereas Hezbollah are a non-state actor with very limited resources. Hezbollah's doctrine has always been to wage a long-term asymmetric war against Israel, with resilience as it's defining characteristic. It is neither a strongman's regime nor a cult of personality, but a movement rooted in a strong religious community. While undoubtedly weakened by recent events, I would not apply the term "military defeat", as it is not a conventional war. My question is, in what sense can Israel be said to be winning? Can they achieve the stated goal of "pacifying the northern border" with airstrikes and assassinations alone?
Excellent analysis and observations, Andrew. I can only request that everyone stops thinking Kiev has anything to do with this conflict. It is very clearly the USA. Let's get over this "proxy" BS before it is too late. It took courage for you to make this analysis. You are not alone in thinking this way.
“Even though Russia’s approach led to a lot fewer civilian deaths, it’s still criticized much as Israel is, if not more.” Indeed.
When I read phrases like “Russia’s brutal, unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine”, or even outright lies such as “Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure” in the Western corporate press, I wonder how much is exaggeration for effect, how much is intentional misinformation, and how much is sheer ignorance.
But how much criticism is there from the Global South specifically? I've always thought minimizing that was one of the reasons behind Russia's current approach.
'Yet Zelensky is still here. And Kiev stands as if nothing has happened.' I'm with you halfway here. Kiev still stands because of its importance in Russian history and culture. In many ways the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a civil War. Russians would be horrified were mass damage inflicted on Kiev, or on a number of other cities, such as Odessa. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and their allies is a most uncivil war. The Israelis don't really care how uncivilized they appear to be. Russians do wish to appear civilized, in contrast to the slander hurled by politicians and media in the US and UK (both responsible for enormous damage to civil infrastructure in Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc.) That might explain why Lviv isn't rubble.
Indeed, a brilliant analysis. You are touching a sore spot. Being too kind can be dangerous. On the other hand, it is also true that President Putin knows more than we do. But still...
I don’t think is about the world’ opinion for Russia. Israel turned its population into blood thirsty heartless monsters, cheering at the deaths of their neighbors children. Israelis sunk to the level of their persecutors- the German Nazis.
Putin is right not to go this road. Killing the heart of the nation is dangerous for the nation.
I can't agree with Paula. Your analysis is excellent, as always Andrew, and on the point. Yes, it is arguable but then everything is. IMHO it's always about resources - thus follow the money:
Russia is intent on ushering in a new global order against powerful entrenched forces that criticize everything they do. The political aspect has been and will remain paramount.
Israel is the favored child that can do no wrong; very Hunter Biden like.
There are few good takeaways here from Israel. In future decades Putin will be held in a far greater light than most of his contemporaries. Bibi, like Z, will be considered a ruthless butcher that hastened the death of his own country.
Actually, you know who will take heed? Israel’s enemies.
So, President Putin isn't being as brutal as Netanyahu & you say Russia is "losing" as a result. Brutality is being showcased for the world to see what it is & always has been in settler colonist mentality. It is a huge wake-up call to consciousness to see that devastating people, a culture, life itself, is NOT a "winning" strategy.
Awesome write up Andrew. Strelkov is right. Kvachkov is right. Russias current allies aren't going to jump ship if Moscow starts fighting for real and the West isn't going to stop claiming Putin is literally Hitler no matter how restrained and passive Russia is. If you are going to do the time you might as well do the crime. If Russia is going to be a pariah state according to the West no matter what than Russia ought to reap the fruits of that status which is freedom from the slavery of Western public opinion and the "international community". Stalin took the USSR from pariah state status to dictating his terms to the whole world.
Unfortunately while much of the Russian elite has expensive property in the West, family living in the West and their children attending Western Universities it is unreasonable to expect any meaningful positive changes. The current Russian elite are Westernophile holdovers from the 90s and many aren't even Russian by ethnicity. That's a problem Israel does not have at all and its the most decisive imo. There is no pro Iranian/Syrian faction welding deceive influence in Tel Aviv and the Israeli elite is 100% Jewish. All else sort of flows from that.
It is a good article, but I do have a quibble with one statement. Only a god would know how you manage to keep up this output, so it really is just a quibble.
"Even though Russia’s approach led to a lot fewer civilian deaths, it’s still criticized much as Israel is, if not more."
The ICC might agree with you but I think if you went to look at the UN voting records or even the ICJ, then you'd have a hard time making this point stick in a functioning fair court. Maybe something along the line of adding, "....it's still criticized.... if not more by the West, which for now still seems to be the power that matters when it comes to internet and mass media that I see."
Israel has a get out of jail card, Russia does not. We may not like it, the game is rigged, but BRICKS would not be where it is now if Ukraine had not become a willing proxie being burned alive by it's master, which scared the remaining 1st and 2nd tier powers sh*tless.
An unspoken but underlying assumption of this analysis seems to be that Netanyahu and Putin have similar agenda. Putin is making decisions with respect to Russia. Netanyahu is making decisions with respect to himself, and himself alone. To the extent these reflect the agenda of others, it is only with respect to what those others can do for Netanyahu. I don't think there's much use making comparisons given that single, yet enormous, difference in motivations and goals.
Russia has become great again under Mr Putin's leadership. As justified as Russian anger with the ongoing Ukrainian situation and with US/British imperialism is, from a western observer pov Mr Putin has played his hand to absolute perfection. When you have a great leader, and Mr Putin is truly a great leader imo, you should celebrate that and put your trust in him.
Thanks for this. It needed to be said. Prior to February 2022, I had never heard the phrase "special military operation," and I've read a lot of military history. I hope never to hear it again. You don't commit to a military operation without intending to win a military victory, and you don't put soldiers into the field unless you intend giving them everything they need to win that victory. The latest BBC/Media Zona report puts Russian combat deaths at 70,000. Granted, the source makes that figure dubious. But whether it's 70,000 or 40,000, those soldiers died for Russia's security and future. Russia owes it to them, first and foremost, to win.
So win the damned war and make nice with the Ukrainians after it's over. They're going to need a friend anyway, after the shabby way they've been used by the U.S. and NATO.
I always appreciate your precise and balanced analysis, but it seems to me that you are here treating the latest Israel-Lebanon conflict as a conventional war, and I'm not sure this is the correct way of looking at it. Israel is a nuclear state with very advanced weaponry and free access to the resources of the most powerful country in the world, whereas Hezbollah are a non-state actor with very limited resources. Hezbollah's doctrine has always been to wage a long-term asymmetric war against Israel, with resilience as it's defining characteristic. It is neither a strongman's regime nor a cult of personality, but a movement rooted in a strong religious community. While undoubtedly weakened by recent events, I would not apply the term "military defeat", as it is not a conventional war. My question is, in what sense can Israel be said to be winning? Can they achieve the stated goal of "pacifying the northern border" with airstrikes and assassinations alone?
Excellent analysis and observations, Andrew. I can only request that everyone stops thinking Kiev has anything to do with this conflict. It is very clearly the USA. Let's get over this "proxy" BS before it is too late. It took courage for you to make this analysis. You are not alone in thinking this way.
“Even though Russia’s approach led to a lot fewer civilian deaths, it’s still criticized much as Israel is, if not more.” Indeed.
When I read phrases like “Russia’s brutal, unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine”, or even outright lies such as “Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure” in the Western corporate press, I wonder how much is exaggeration for effect, how much is intentional misinformation, and how much is sheer ignorance.
But how much criticism is there from the Global South specifically? I've always thought minimizing that was one of the reasons behind Russia's current approach.
'Yet Zelensky is still here. And Kiev stands as if nothing has happened.' I'm with you halfway here. Kiev still stands because of its importance in Russian history and culture. In many ways the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a civil War. Russians would be horrified were mass damage inflicted on Kiev, or on a number of other cities, such as Odessa. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and their allies is a most uncivil war. The Israelis don't really care how uncivilized they appear to be. Russians do wish to appear civilized, in contrast to the slander hurled by politicians and media in the US and UK (both responsible for enormous damage to civil infrastructure in Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc.) That might explain why Lviv isn't rubble.
Indeed, a brilliant analysis. You are touching a sore spot. Being too kind can be dangerous. On the other hand, it is also true that President Putin knows more than we do. But still...
I don’t think is about the world’ opinion for Russia. Israel turned its population into blood thirsty heartless monsters, cheering at the deaths of their neighbors children. Israelis sunk to the level of their persecutors- the German Nazis.
Putin is right not to go this road. Killing the heart of the nation is dangerous for the nation.
I can't agree with Paula. Your analysis is excellent, as always Andrew, and on the point. Yes, it is arguable but then everything is. IMHO it's always about resources - thus follow the money:
https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/gaza-israel-war-special-report-end?sd=pf
Russia is intent on ushering in a new global order against powerful entrenched forces that criticize everything they do. The political aspect has been and will remain paramount.
Israel is the favored child that can do no wrong; very Hunter Biden like.
There are few good takeaways here from Israel. In future decades Putin will be held in a far greater light than most of his contemporaries. Bibi, like Z, will be considered a ruthless butcher that hastened the death of his own country.
Actually, you know who will take heed? Israel’s enemies.
So, President Putin isn't being as brutal as Netanyahu & you say Russia is "losing" as a result. Brutality is being showcased for the world to see what it is & always has been in settler colonist mentality. It is a huge wake-up call to consciousness to see that devastating people, a culture, life itself, is NOT a "winning" strategy.
Israel is supported by the US; Russia is fighting against the US.
Israel is intent on total destruction; Russia is intent on preservation to the extent possible.
Israel does not care about what the world thinks; Russia is mindful of the political impact of its actions.
......
Awesome write up Andrew. Strelkov is right. Kvachkov is right. Russias current allies aren't going to jump ship if Moscow starts fighting for real and the West isn't going to stop claiming Putin is literally Hitler no matter how restrained and passive Russia is. If you are going to do the time you might as well do the crime. If Russia is going to be a pariah state according to the West no matter what than Russia ought to reap the fruits of that status which is freedom from the slavery of Western public opinion and the "international community". Stalin took the USSR from pariah state status to dictating his terms to the whole world.
Unfortunately while much of the Russian elite has expensive property in the West, family living in the West and their children attending Western Universities it is unreasonable to expect any meaningful positive changes. The current Russian elite are Westernophile holdovers from the 90s and many aren't even Russian by ethnicity. That's a problem Israel does not have at all and its the most decisive imo. There is no pro Iranian/Syrian faction welding deceive influence in Tel Aviv and the Israeli elite is 100% Jewish. All else sort of flows from that.
It is a good article, but I do have a quibble with one statement. Only a god would know how you manage to keep up this output, so it really is just a quibble.
"Even though Russia’s approach led to a lot fewer civilian deaths, it’s still criticized much as Israel is, if not more."
The ICC might agree with you but I think if you went to look at the UN voting records or even the ICJ, then you'd have a hard time making this point stick in a functioning fair court. Maybe something along the line of adding, "....it's still criticized.... if not more by the West, which for now still seems to be the power that matters when it comes to internet and mass media that I see."
Israel has a get out of jail card, Russia does not. We may not like it, the game is rigged, but BRICKS would not be where it is now if Ukraine had not become a willing proxie being burned alive by it's master, which scared the remaining 1st and 2nd tier powers sh*tless.
An unspoken but underlying assumption of this analysis seems to be that Netanyahu and Putin have similar agenda. Putin is making decisions with respect to Russia. Netanyahu is making decisions with respect to himself, and himself alone. To the extent these reflect the agenda of others, it is only with respect to what those others can do for Netanyahu. I don't think there's much use making comparisons given that single, yet enormous, difference in motivations and goals.
Russia has become great again under Mr Putin's leadership. As justified as Russian anger with the ongoing Ukrainian situation and with US/British imperialism is, from a western observer pov Mr Putin has played his hand to absolute perfection. When you have a great leader, and Mr Putin is truly a great leader imo, you should celebrate that and put your trust in him.
This is something I have been saying long before the Israeli Lebanon War.
I will add a sixth. Israel appears to have learned from its 2006 fiasco and acted accordingly.
My first reaction after reading Andrew's post and checking the comments was, "Why isn't FF's comment the first one?" 😉
Thanks for this. It needed to be said. Prior to February 2022, I had never heard the phrase "special military operation," and I've read a lot of military history. I hope never to hear it again. You don't commit to a military operation without intending to win a military victory, and you don't put soldiers into the field unless you intend giving them everything they need to win that victory. The latest BBC/Media Zona report puts Russian combat deaths at 70,000. Granted, the source makes that figure dubious. But whether it's 70,000 or 40,000, those soldiers died for Russia's security and future. Russia owes it to them, first and foremost, to win.
So win the damned war and make nice with the Ukrainians after it's over. They're going to need a friend anyway, after the shabby way they've been used by the U.S. and NATO.
I'm pretty sure that 'special military operation' is Russian for 'police action' which is what the USA labelled the conflicts in Korea and Vietnam.