"...on the terms that Kiev and Moscow tentatively agreed to shortly after it began..."
As long as they include: 1) de-militarisation of the Ukraine with removal of its Constitutional provision to join NATO; 2) de-nazification of the Ukraine; and 3) re-institution of the Ukraine's Constitutional definition of self as a neutral state... Why not?
There will need to be some provision to undo the security pacts concluded since Feb. '22, which effectively amount to the Ukraine joining NATO through a back door.
And, of course, the newly-ascended territories will need to recognised.
All stolen monies will need to be returned, and there should be recognition of responsibility for, and undertaking to reimburse, damage caused by disruption to the NordStream pipelines. (I would suggest repair should be part of the reparations package.)
I don't think sanctions are as important for Russia as for Europe but the American economy would certainly be more likely to be viable in the long-term, as a participant in a more multi-polar balance, if they were removed.
"Phased sanctions relief as a reward for compliance with a ceasefire/armistice could do a lot to avert the aforesaid scenario in a non-threatening way that would also be tacitly acceptable for Russia too." – This is a very important and well-formulated sentence.
My only concern here is the momentum that Russia's war economy has already gained, which may incline influential portions of Russian society to declare that Russian actually does better UNDER Western sanctions!
There's certainly no NEED for Russia to remove them but doing so could save Europe from the worst of its imminent economic catastrophe, in the short term. In the long term, trade with Russia could do much to help the US reconcile itself to its new role in a multi-polar world economy.
So, the question would seem to be, 'Should Russia give much weight to the removal of sanctions in negotiations to end hostilities in the Ukraine?' Good question. Just have to wait and see, I guess.
There will certainly be no peace as long as Zelensky remains puppet dictator of Ukraine, as he will not agree to any of the terms you just mentioned (nor would the Banderites who have threatened to kill him if he even negotiates with Russia). Likewise I don't think Russia has any interest in ending the war at this point until Russia is satisfied that Ukraine can be in no position to endanger it. The US has lost the war, and Russia will dictate the terms; there's nothing the US can do about that, and Trump would be wise to do sooner what will have to be done eventually, which is to get out and stop wasting resources on a lost cause. All we're doing is multiplying the hardships of the Ukrainian people and getting more of them killed.
That was then... This is now, and a lot has changed - The NATO/US bloc is weaker, and Russia has invested a lot of blood and treasure. I don't think the same terms are available.
Russia would certainly insist that Donezk and Lugansk oblasts as well as Kherson and Zaporishya oblasts are FULLY incorporated into Russia. That's a lot harher terms than the draft of the April 2022 treaty. Someone in Ukraine will remove Zelensky (or his Western handlers will)- the alternative would be continued Russian territorial gains and the potential loss of Kharkiv and Odessa and cutting Ukraine off Baltic Sea access. The latter would turn Ukraine into an economic basket case for generations to come. The E, itself crippled and in steep decline, wouldn't be able to suficiently support Ukraine financially for more than a few years.
The gig is up for the US military hegemon and its four proxy expendable amigos France, the UK, Ukraine and Germany in its effort to dismantle Russia to steal its natural wealth. Western economies are slowly declining without the intelligence and capacity to reverse course. The West has self-annihilated with woke bad policies in energy economics, military, social, political and so on, all culminating into the ultimate shitshow. The US could barely handle the Nam or Afghanistan so how do you think they'd fare against Russia on its home turf spread out over 9 time zones? lol
Calling for a draft in the US would only signal its desperate measures to be relevant without them being a real threat. The Woke draftables won't even work skilled trades because it is too physical for them and you think they want to go fight an unknown enemy halfway across the world for a cause they don't give a shit about. You'd have to drag them in like they do in Ukraine picking up young men on the street by force to send them to die on the Ukraine's eastern front. Diversity, equity, and inclusivity Don't work well in the army either. The newly formed Rainbow Division of the US forces would likely put a smile on Russian soldiers eager to welcome them in battle. Yes, so I exaggerate, but not too much.
Also calling for a draft while making peace proposals would signal to Russia that they are being lied to again.
What the US should do is get its military out of foreign countries and keep them at home like all the other countries of the world do and stop intimidating countries to hold its USD-military based hegemon. The gig is up and the hegemon will fight to the last proxy. lol
I hope that Putin will stick to his stated (repeatedly stated) preconditions for negotiation. The peace and prosperity of Europe depend on a pacified, demilitarized, de-nazified Ukraine. That was true in 2008, when western idiots declared Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO, and it is of course the obvious, blatantly plain truth today.
The US and NATO should have their butts handed to them in a sack with a stern admonition to fuck no more with Russia. I love the US and I hate to see it lose, but this is the only possible means to reset the policy assumptions that led directly to this disaster.
This would be a better idea than the "DMZ" being proposed here and there. Your Point #4 is particularly interesting, an angle that had not occurred to me (although I don't know if it is possible at this point).
"...on the terms that Kiev and Moscow tentatively agreed to shortly after it began..."
As long as they include: 1) de-militarisation of the Ukraine with removal of its Constitutional provision to join NATO; 2) de-nazification of the Ukraine; and 3) re-institution of the Ukraine's Constitutional definition of self as a neutral state... Why not?
There will need to be some provision to undo the security pacts concluded since Feb. '22, which effectively amount to the Ukraine joining NATO through a back door.
And, of course, the newly-ascended territories will need to recognised.
All stolen monies will need to be returned, and there should be recognition of responsibility for, and undertaking to reimburse, damage caused by disruption to the NordStream pipelines. (I would suggest repair should be part of the reparations package.)
I don't think sanctions are as important for Russia as for Europe but the American economy would certainly be more likely to be viable in the long-term, as a participant in a more multi-polar balance, if they were removed.
"Phased sanctions relief as a reward for compliance with a ceasefire/armistice could do a lot to avert the aforesaid scenario in a non-threatening way that would also be tacitly acceptable for Russia too." – This is a very important and well-formulated sentence.
My only concern here is the momentum that Russia's war economy has already gained, which may incline influential portions of Russian society to declare that Russian actually does better UNDER Western sanctions!
There's certainly no NEED for Russia to remove them but doing so could save Europe from the worst of its imminent economic catastrophe, in the short term. In the long term, trade with Russia could do much to help the US reconcile itself to its new role in a multi-polar world economy.
That's not a position with which I agree, at least in the long term, but it is harder to provide concrete arguments to support such a disagreement.
So, the question would seem to be, 'Should Russia give much weight to the removal of sanctions in negotiations to end hostilities in the Ukraine?' Good question. Just have to wait and see, I guess.
There will certainly be no peace as long as Zelensky remains puppet dictator of Ukraine, as he will not agree to any of the terms you just mentioned (nor would the Banderites who have threatened to kill him if he even negotiates with Russia). Likewise I don't think Russia has any interest in ending the war at this point until Russia is satisfied that Ukraine can be in no position to endanger it. The US has lost the war, and Russia will dictate the terms; there's nothing the US can do about that, and Trump would be wise to do sooner what will have to be done eventually, which is to get out and stop wasting resources on a lost cause. All we're doing is multiplying the hardships of the Ukrainian people and getting more of them killed.
That was then... This is now, and a lot has changed - The NATO/US bloc is weaker, and Russia has invested a lot of blood and treasure. I don't think the same terms are available.
Russia would certainly insist that Donezk and Lugansk oblasts as well as Kherson and Zaporishya oblasts are FULLY incorporated into Russia. That's a lot harher terms than the draft of the April 2022 treaty. Someone in Ukraine will remove Zelensky (or his Western handlers will)- the alternative would be continued Russian territorial gains and the potential loss of Kharkiv and Odessa and cutting Ukraine off Baltic Sea access. The latter would turn Ukraine into an economic basket case for generations to come. The E, itself crippled and in steep decline, wouldn't be able to suficiently support Ukraine financially for more than a few years.
The gig is up for the US military hegemon and its four proxy expendable amigos France, the UK, Ukraine and Germany in its effort to dismantle Russia to steal its natural wealth. Western economies are slowly declining without the intelligence and capacity to reverse course. The West has self-annihilated with woke bad policies in energy economics, military, social, political and so on, all culminating into the ultimate shitshow. The US could barely handle the Nam or Afghanistan so how do you think they'd fare against Russia on its home turf spread out over 9 time zones? lol
Calling for a draft in the US would only signal its desperate measures to be relevant without them being a real threat. The Woke draftables won't even work skilled trades because it is too physical for them and you think they want to go fight an unknown enemy halfway across the world for a cause they don't give a shit about. You'd have to drag them in like they do in Ukraine picking up young men on the street by force to send them to die on the Ukraine's eastern front. Diversity, equity, and inclusivity Don't work well in the army either. The newly formed Rainbow Division of the US forces would likely put a smile on Russian soldiers eager to welcome them in battle. Yes, so I exaggerate, but not too much.
Also calling for a draft while making peace proposals would signal to Russia that they are being lied to again.
What the US should do is get its military out of foreign countries and keep them at home like all the other countries of the world do and stop intimidating countries to hold its USD-military based hegemon. The gig is up and the hegemon will fight to the last proxy. lol
The Blob's bad policies, (the figure heads don't do shit). Which led to the US military plaguing the world.
I hope that Putin will stick to his stated (repeatedly stated) preconditions for negotiation. The peace and prosperity of Europe depend on a pacified, demilitarized, de-nazified Ukraine. That was true in 2008, when western idiots declared Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO, and it is of course the obvious, blatantly plain truth today.
The US and NATO should have their butts handed to them in a sack with a stern admonition to fuck no more with Russia. I love the US and I hate to see it lose, but this is the only possible means to reset the policy assumptions that led directly to this disaster.
It wasn’t a draft. It was a signed agreement. The “West” killed it.
That was then and this is now. The terms will be Russian terms now.
This would be a better idea than the "DMZ" being proposed here and there. Your Point #4 is particularly interesting, an angle that had not occurred to me (although I don't know if it is possible at this point).
Will Trump be able to offer it though🤔 Iirc, the UK and US weren't very fond of it.
I'd be shocked if Russia agreed to it now.
From American perspective, sure. From Russian perspective, I think it would be a non-starter without major changes.