8 Comments
Jul 24·edited Jul 24Liked by Andrew Korybko

"...sending a signal to anyone else in the bloc who decides to break ranks with their warmongering policies."

That could, of course, backfire like divine retribution, should other Europeans, like the Italians and Austrians, or even the (sane, i.e. NOT Napoleon wannabes) French and Czechs gradually come to terms with who they are and understand the strength of Polish Solidarity and revolt.

Chaos, chaos throughout the bloc: from the seemingly deliberately funny (but deadly serious) political nonsense of the 'Woke' and their presidential candidate in America, to a wannabe assassin's bullet in Slovakia — chaos reigns. Signals thus crossed and misunderstood.

Who would dare believe and put faith in signals sent by anyone so involved now? Can there really be much question about who has won the war? How foolish of the Americans to have ever started it!

(I guess they didn't call him 'Moron McCain' without good reason?!

You can't blame Fats Nuland alone.)

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In short and to the point, I would like to point out one more fact. With the invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine, the EU and especially NATO countries were called upon to close the gap. Freely according to the motto the SVO did not separate us but rather more closely. The applications for membership of Sweden and Finland, rightly should it be called they were urged to join, it was called invitation. I don’t know how it is in English, but in German the terms are very clearly separated. Now, they’re trying to divide Orban by various means and that’s just because he tried to get out the possibilities that exist between the two countries to bring Ukraine and Russia to a table for negotiations. Obviously, the Ukraine was involved because of failure, but now that will also fail as already indicated. The USA will turn to Asian, Grenell former US ambassador in Germany has already indicated in a BILD interview what the USA have in mind "If we had a problem in Mexico, we’d solve it ourselves and not ask Germany." In other words, mind your own business and let us out of it. So much for the close cooperation within the EU and NATO.

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It would seem perfectly justifiable for Hungary to cut off electricity exports without even the need to characterize it as retaliation. Without the Russian imported fuels, Hungary's capacity to produce electricity would rather obviously be reduced.

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Ukraine doesn't care whether their citizens freeze or starve. Hungary does care about oil, however.

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EU and NATO are dominated by countries with sea access, at least to the Baltic and Adriatic seas. But Slovak, Hungary, Austria, and Serbia are without sea access. I think these countries are more capable to perceive the geographical and natural resource constraints they face. While they can choose to go pro-west and getting sea access through Germany and Italy, they need to have a life line toward Russia if they want to somehow maintain their sovereign. In the old days, mountains and well fed farmers are enough to defend a country. But that would be far from enough in the modern era. The best land corridor is for Hungary to claim old territory in western Ukraine (I heard Slovak has given up on their land lost to USSR after WW2) to touch a Russian land corridor which extends to Odessa and Krivoy Rog. Not only a narrow corridor is difficult to maintain and defend, it is also doubtful whether Russian leaders are willing to make the investment to control and prepare the land. I hope Russian leaders would consider their Slav brothers in Serbia favorably. If Ukraine war stops now and Kiev Regime controls most of the current land under its control (pulling out completely from 4 eastern Oblasts), not only we will have the next Ukraine war, but also Slovak, Hungary, and Serbia would continue to suffer. Ukraine, if it is ever going to remain on the map, has to be an inland-only rump west of Kiev. I don't even think Ukrainian Ultra nationalists deserve a claim on Kiev the city.

I did not mention the following countries for some reasons. Other land locked small countries in Europe, IMHO, do not really have sufficient geographical conditions to be independent modern countries. Their existence will always have to be keyed on some big neighbors. Czech seems to have been partially Germanized and now think, talk, and act along the NATO/EU/Germany line. Romania and Bulgaria have to access through Black Sea and the two straits controlled by Turkey. Romania and Bulgaria had both been once proud and significant empires themselves, I guess they have deep resentment toward the rise of Russia and Serbia.

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Even if Selensky now supposedly supports negotiations with RF, that does not mean it will happen. Much will depend on the US elections and as I mentioned in my above comment, there is obviously a consideration from the Trump camp, So, the two Ukraine and RF are plotting a line, If both do not agree, the USA will probably not interfere for the time being. However, if it cuts off finances and military technology, Ukraine will lose. Unless a H.Clinton becomes the demokr candidate, then anything is possible. But back, RF can not help but bring Nikolayev and Odessa under control and as it looks at the moment, time is running out. Either the breakthroughs become decisive and thus the defeat of Ukraine comes before the elections surrender or we slide into the next nightmare. It would be important that the RF gets access to Nikolayev and Odessa, and that Ukraine loses access to the Black Sea, and that Moldova or Ukraine. Transnistria direct connection to RF is restored. In addition, Hungary, Slovakia, as well as Serbia but also Bulgaria could then connect with RF bilaterally again what is a shaky candidate within the EU and NATO. In this case, the US would lose interest in Ukraine for the time being, as it already has a foothold in Armenia, which can be extremely unpleasant for the Russian Federation. Azerbaijan is connected with Turkey - NATO country - which is trying to bind the Turkic peoples.

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Russia shall stop behaving politely and shall copy the us on everything.

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Hungary and Slovakia shall stop selling energy to ukraine. see what will happen?

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