The most likely scenario is that the Kristallnacht-like massacre of Alawites goes unpunished and the rebellion by some of the victims’ co-religionists is decisively defeated.
Brilliant analysis once again. However in this case the balance has shifted. We know that Trump despises the Jolani gang and we know west Europe is weakened. I’m wondering that there’s a better alternative now.
German lands and Europe had the 30 years war due to partly, religious reasons. They were all Germans there, speaking the same language, but about 300 years ago, those religious wars led to a reduction of population by 30%.
Alawites, Christians, Sunnis, Shi'a s, or Druze, they are all Arabs, speaking Arabic. And while Israel is stealling their lands, they are at eachother's throat...
However HST is pushing on the limits of barbarity. SOmething that was not done by the other party (ies). As such, Russia is really in a conundrum. But it has the material evidence to show the new government of Syria that it cannot relinquish the thousands of civilians since the government shows itself incapable to protect civilians, women, children, etc, from the slaughter.
This would potentially be a useful opportunity for Russia and the United States to demonstrate that they can work together as part of a humanitarian mission.
I don't think that Christians can be protected in a unitary state of Syria long term. Maybe one should consider building a Christian state out of parts of Lebanon and Syria. Same for Alavites. Same for Kurds. Druze can probably be integrated into greater Israel.
This is a big moment for Putin. Shielding the Alwhites should be a priority for Russia and while keeping a military base would be important too. Stopping a genocide is much too important to be thinking about that in the near future. Syria has to get under control and figure out its standing in the Middle East. Iran’s moves need to be monitored and held in check too. Iran should really want to stay as far in the background as possible because they are already in the US’s crosshairs over their nuclear ambitions. Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and right now are perilously close to achieving that goal. I’d say if they don’t come to the table soon there’s going to be some sort of military action that will happen and whether it’s covert or not won’t really matter if they have nuclear warheads.
The West's goal in Syria is to turn that country into a failed state, much like what was done to Iraq and Libya.
And Lebanon. And this is what they want for Iran as well...
Brilliant analysis once again. However in this case the balance has shifted. We know that Trump despises the Jolani gang and we know west Europe is weakened. I’m wondering that there’s a better alternative now.
German lands and Europe had the 30 years war due to partly, religious reasons. They were all Germans there, speaking the same language, but about 300 years ago, those religious wars led to a reduction of population by 30%.
Alawites, Christians, Sunnis, Shi'a s, or Druze, they are all Arabs, speaking Arabic. And while Israel is stealling their lands, they are at eachother's throat...
However HST is pushing on the limits of barbarity. SOmething that was not done by the other party (ies). As such, Russia is really in a conundrum. But it has the material evidence to show the new government of Syria that it cannot relinquish the thousands of civilians since the government shows itself incapable to protect civilians, women, children, etc, from the slaughter.
This would potentially be a useful opportunity for Russia and the United States to demonstrate that they can work together as part of a humanitarian mission.
Russia does not need a military base in Syria. The US does not need bases in the middle east. It is a tar pit that will swallow all.
I don't think that Christians can be protected in a unitary state of Syria long term. Maybe one should consider building a Christian state out of parts of Lebanon and Syria. Same for Alavites. Same for Kurds. Druze can probably be integrated into greater Israel.
This is a big moment for Putin. Shielding the Alwhites should be a priority for Russia and while keeping a military base would be important too. Stopping a genocide is much too important to be thinking about that in the near future. Syria has to get under control and figure out its standing in the Middle East. Iran’s moves need to be monitored and held in check too. Iran should really want to stay as far in the background as possible because they are already in the US’s crosshairs over their nuclear ambitions. Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and right now are perilously close to achieving that goal. I’d say if they don’t come to the table soon there’s going to be some sort of military action that will happen and whether it’s covert or not won’t really matter if they have nuclear warheads.