Transatlantic ties, Russian-US relations, and the nature of American hegemony are all transforming before everyone’s eyes as Trump makes bold moves to force Zelensky to the peace table with Putin.
What the world needs to know are the limits to both this new detente and the comprehensive partnership between the US and Russia. China will most definitely want answers to this question, especially if either (informal accord) contains even a hint of of military pact between America and Russia, by using words, say, to the effect that ‘we’ve got each others’ back.’
While Beijing has openly expressed its support for such a new detente — although probably wouldn’t use that word — the fact that Putin and XI have several times deemed it necessary to publicly express their undying love for each other, means that one can’t readily discount the possibility that the two gentlemen doth protest too much. Nor can one dismiss the possibility that Trump has not miraculously abandoned the idea of separating Russia from China.
Certainly the US deep state, together with its partners in crime across the Western world, has by no means given up on the task of effecting such a separation. Indeed, one gets a sense that the ‘global deep state’ is about to fight back in earnest against Trump and Putin, perhaps even by siding with Xi if he/they thought that became necessary.
I definitely agree with you that Putin and Xi "doth protest too much" with their countries' almost cartoonish declarations of love and solidarity at times, but I still don't believe that any split is likely, though there are some fault lines that I touched upon a few years back here:
Oh and good luck if an average pro-Chinese person (almost always never actually Chinese just a "Non-Chinese Pro-Chinese" or NCPC) comes across you talking like this on X since I've already been called a "CIA agent" by quite a few over the past weeks lol
Even more than with the above example, this one convinced me that they "doth protest too much" because it's a gross overreaction to calmly talking about scenarios or at least American imperatives even if they don't ultimately unfold, absolutely ridiculous!
Some of the abuse that I've experienced from them is literally "NAFO" like, it kinda pushed me off balance a bit when it first happened and was overwhelming because it was so unexpected, but it really says a lot about how unsettled they are about this.
I agree that a split is unlikely and I sure as hell hope that it is. But, the ‘realist’ in me can’t dismiss the possibility that factions around Putin, if not VVP himself, would apply pressure on him to put some as yet undefined distance between Moscow (my favourite city in the world) and Beijing — if Trump went overboard in sweetening the pot.
The only distance that I think is possible would be Russia prioritizing resource exports to countries other than China but on the plausible pretext of them simply outcompeting China by paying more and offering better partnership terms.
Thank you for your generosity in sharing these insightful and informative articles.
Do you think perhaps that there is a ‘grand bargain’ in the offing, that encompasses not only the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, but also a framework for a settlement of the United States’ disagreements with Iran over its putative nuclear programme, and possibly even some sort of détente with North Korea?
It seems to me that such a settlement would very much appeal to President Trump’s vision and view of himself, in so far as we can understand it, and, of course, a potential Nobel Prize would be an added incentive.
Thank you, I'm very honored that such prestigious outlets republish my work, or in Asia Times' occasional case and Newsweek's latest ones, share some of my exclusive insight!
"It seems to me that such a settlement would very much appeal to President Trump’s vision and view of himself, in so far as we can understand it, and, of course, a potential Nobel Prize would be an added incentive."
Nothing Trump can do would get him a Nobel Peace Prize. He could personally get war, poverty and disease abolished worldwide, and the Nobel Prize committee would bitch about the arms makers and so on that were put out of work.
Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize, simply for showing up and not being Dubya. Not fair? Nope, but so what?
I don't think that DJT, as Mr. Zbig B. did, believes in a grand concept other than always putting US interests first as president of the US. For that he needs to stop draining the US taxpayers to pay for things like the running of the Ukrainian government (!) and financing their loser war. He has ideas, but they probably all involve money and resources and deals, not wars. He just wants to be the kingpin. But he's doing okay, much better than Round One in the WH.
I read that UKs Starmer made the 100 yr pact with Ukraine in January, a few days prior to Trump taking office. Apparently it contained an appendix for UK to extract the "raw earth" resources. francesleader.substack.com/p/why-uk-wants-ukraines-cobalt-and Alex Krainer interview with Ania K is linked in the article.
The claims about a secret UK-Ukrainian rare earth minerals deal are speculative as far as I'm aware since nothing is contained in last year's "security guarantee" agreement nor January's "100-year-long partnership" one:
Even if something was agreed to, I find it very difficult to imagine that the UK would be able to extract everything under the US' nose or that Trump would let it slide that they beat him to the punch in this deal.
I agree with you there about the US not knowing, or losing out, so to speak. At one time I used to watch TV soaps and now am finding geopolitics far more intriguing!
Also: The timing of presentation and the quality of information forwarded by Ukraine on the rare-earth/mineral issue is highly susceptible. The supposed presence of these resources was started to be reported mostly in the last few months, after the Trump victory, when Ukraine has anticipated the coming hard times with Trump. Many of these resources were traced back to pre-1991 communist “discoveries”. I can tell you after decades of studies of the Soviet Bloc that no information coming from them can be classified reliable. Falsifying economic, demographic, military stats and all information was a trade they were engaged in fulltime. In addition it was also reported recently that many of these mineral resources are difficult to access. They might be in remote locations or in very deep mines. Trump would be wise to send in a large group of experts to evaluate the situation there independently. Any reported rare-earth locations that were not mined already before the start of the war (February 24, 2022) are suspicious as these were highly profitable enterprises decades ago.
In the eastern European areas the local gypsies are well known about the ancient art of selling the same horse multiple times. Is it possible that Zelensky learned this remarkable trade from traveling gypsies in his area? I also received a fairly well documented writing from a generally dependable source yesterday, bringing the news of the same double-deal. (See below)
The UK-Ukraine agreement was signed on the 16th of January, 2025 just four days before Trump moved into the (Formerly) White House. The same news came to me from a Central European source, fairly well documented, yesterday. Zelensky signed the deal for 100 years. It is difficult to believe that Trump had not known about this on the 28th of March, last Friday at the time of the White House meeting with Zelensky. There is a substantial gap in the flow of logics connected to events here. Since the “humorist with limited talent” was selling the same horse a second time; Why would Trump even open the door for him on Friday morning? Maybe they had seen a possibly way to separate the UK from the 100 year deal? After all the entire whole Trump plan was resting on the mineral deal. As soon as Zelensky rushed back to Europe the UK issued a $2 billion credit on March 2, 2025, for the manufacturing of 5,000 air defense missiles. In other words the UK stepped up to the role of the No. 1 Warmonger. I am wondering what Nigel Farage will have to say about this. This event might open the door for him to take over the UK government. .
Andrew - Excellent points - It is clear that President Trump and President Putin want to end the war. Elections and democracy need to happen in Ukraine as part of the peace process. Zelensky is holding up the peace process, in my opinion.
What military aid exactly was paused? Weapons can be substituted. Money is famously fungible. But intelligence, satellite recon data and Starlink cannot readily be replaced.
The AFU will not be able to fight after three days of those items you listed being stopped. The Ukraine will get zero concessions. Do they thing the EU can replace any of that Plus: paying Ukraine's civil service, retiree's pensions, and a miriad of other things. Trump was right to tell Zelenskiy that Ukraine had NO cards to play.
Not arguing any of that. The question is whether any of those things in fact were stopped, and anyway, it looks like Trump is back in, Zelenskii will grovel and flatter appropriately.
"...as Trump makes bold moves to force Zelensky to the peace table with Putin..." I very much doubt that Trump will want Zelensky negotiating directly with Putin because Putin has already stated that he and the Russian Military elite do not recognise Zelensky as the legitimate leader of the Ukrainian nation and that Zelensky is not popular with the Ukrainian electorate. Trump will also prevent British, French and German direct participation in the peace negotiations because as rightfully so, Putin's complaint is solely with Ukraine, not the EU, NATO or any other European organisation. The best role USA can play here is mediator. The worst the US can do is insist in constructing commercial peace related deals with Ukrainian resources that will only benefit the Zelensky regime and global capitalists.
Love your articles Andrew. Agree with most of it. China and Russia have a big thing going. Plus Russia must be aware that Trump's term will end one day and the hawks may come back. Furthermore, the West can't be trusted after what happened with Minsk2 and the fact that Russia was lured into a war against a brother nation.
My concern is that Russia has been patient, wise and mature in response to all escalations from the West. Once the war is over though....oh boy. If I were Europe I'd be concerned Russia becomes a spoiler.
The Ukraine and the EU are making themselves repelent to the US's interests and are a financial drain on the US economy. The US needs Russia to counterbalance/contain China's expansionist tendencies. Putin knows this also and he also knows he can't challenge China alone. China is only a marriage of convenience for Russia due to the West's economic sanctions. Putin's mindset is with the West but he won't cooperate if he, or Russia, are disrespected. Putin has been provoked and lied to repeatedly during the 25 years he's been at the top and Trump's job will be difficult because he will need to: remove any possibility of Ukraine entering NATO, removal of the criminally installed, via coup sponsored by the US State Department and the US CIA, government and hold free and fair elections, return the frozen Russian bank accounts, remove economic sanctions, agree that the Ukraine must become neutral like Austria and Switzerland, agree to reset the Russia/Ukraine land borders to Russia's comfort level, bring Russia into the European Common Market with full trading rights, and possibly more, if he wants Russia to be a true ally. While he is trying to enlist Russia as an ally, he must also convince the American public that this is to their benefit while the Propaganda Press will be working overtime calling Trump "Putin's Puppet". Trump's success is America's success so if you pray, pray for Trump's success.
The problem with reality is that it has a tendency of catching up with people and places. Ukraine, under the management of Sleepy Joe carried on this conflict, dancing on the edge of nuclear war for over three years. Over ten million Ukrainians run from their own country and the rudimental, corrupted low tech economy was decimated together with the male population. Ukraine could never win this war and this was well known to Biden as well as Zelenskyy from day one. The Ukraine population was sucked into this hopeless situation by a bunch of corrupted psychopaths.
Don't think Trump understands WW3 or is driven by avoiding it, it is beyond his comprehension. What drives him is luckily in direction away from WW3 and just coincidentally. Trump probably understands that prolonging Biden's war will make him a loser and wants to avoid that at any cost. Being that he is transactional, a deal with ruskies is likely.
What the world needs to know are the limits to both this new detente and the comprehensive partnership between the US and Russia. China will most definitely want answers to this question, especially if either (informal accord) contains even a hint of of military pact between America and Russia, by using words, say, to the effect that ‘we’ve got each others’ back.’
While Beijing has openly expressed its support for such a new detente — although probably wouldn’t use that word — the fact that Putin and XI have several times deemed it necessary to publicly express their undying love for each other, means that one can’t readily discount the possibility that the two gentlemen doth protest too much. Nor can one dismiss the possibility that Trump has not miraculously abandoned the idea of separating Russia from China.
Certainly the US deep state, together with its partners in crime across the Western world, has by no means given up on the task of effecting such a separation. Indeed, one gets a sense that the ‘global deep state’ is about to fight back in earnest against Trump and Putin, perhaps even by siding with Xi if he/they thought that became necessary.
I definitely agree with you that Putin and Xi "doth protest too much" with their countries' almost cartoonish declarations of love and solidarity at times, but I still don't believe that any split is likely, though there are some fault lines that I touched upon a few years back here:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/rics-differences-should-be-candidly
Oh and good luck if an average pro-Chinese person (almost always never actually Chinese just a "Non-Chinese Pro-Chinese" or NCPC) comes across you talking like this on X since I've already been called a "CIA agent" by quite a few over the past weeks lol
Even more than with the above example, this one convinced me that they "doth protest too much" because it's a gross overreaction to calmly talking about scenarios or at least American imperatives even if they don't ultimately unfold, absolutely ridiculous!
Some of the abuse that I've experienced from them is literally "NAFO" like, it kinda pushed me off balance a bit when it first happened and was overwhelming because it was so unexpected, but it really says a lot about how unsettled they are about this.
I agree that a split is unlikely and I sure as hell hope that it is. But, the ‘realist’ in me can’t dismiss the possibility that factions around Putin, if not VVP himself, would apply pressure on him to put some as yet undefined distance between Moscow (my favourite city in the world) and Beijing — if Trump went overboard in sweetening the pot.
The only distance that I think is possible would be Russia prioritizing resource exports to countries other than China but on the plausible pretext of them simply outcompeting China by paying more and offering better partnership terms.
Lose the 'doth' - it's archaic third-person *singular*
In this case, it's from Shakespeare "Methinks, the lady doth protest too much."
Thank you for your generosity in sharing these insightful and informative articles.
Do you think perhaps that there is a ‘grand bargain’ in the offing, that encompasses not only the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, but also a framework for a settlement of the United States’ disagreements with Iran over its putative nuclear programme, and possibly even some sort of détente with North Korea?
It seems to me that such a settlement would very much appeal to President Trump’s vision and view of himself, in so far as we can understand it, and, of course, a potential Nobel Prize would be an added incentive.
Yes, I believe that everything is on the table and touched more upon the Iranian dimension in my debut interview with Newsweek here:
https://www.newsweek.com/what-trump-putin-detente-means-russia-iran-partnership-2036926
Congratulations on the Newsweek interview xx
I've seen your opinions already appearing at Asia Times and ZeroHedge
Thank you, I'm very honored that such prestigious outlets republish my work, or in Asia Times' occasional case and Newsweek's latest ones, share some of my exclusive insight!
"It seems to me that such a settlement would very much appeal to President Trump’s vision and view of himself, in so far as we can understand it, and, of course, a potential Nobel Prize would be an added incentive."
Nothing Trump can do would get him a Nobel Peace Prize. He could personally get war, poverty and disease abolished worldwide, and the Nobel Prize committee would bitch about the arms makers and so on that were put out of work.
Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize, simply for showing up and not being Dubya. Not fair? Nope, but so what?
Yeah, you’re probably right…
Putin is pretty clear that there will be no peacekeepers.
Any peacekeeper will be classified as a hostile soldier by the Russian army.
He’s been very clear about that yeah.
I don't think that DJT, as Mr. Zbig B. did, believes in a grand concept other than always putting US interests first as president of the US. For that he needs to stop draining the US taxpayers to pay for things like the running of the Ukrainian government (!) and financing their loser war. He has ideas, but they probably all involve money and resources and deals, not wars. He just wants to be the kingpin. But he's doing okay, much better than Round One in the WH.
I read that UKs Starmer made the 100 yr pact with Ukraine in January, a few days prior to Trump taking office. Apparently it contained an appendix for UK to extract the "raw earth" resources. francesleader.substack.com/p/why-uk-wants-ukraines-cobalt-and Alex Krainer interview with Ania K is linked in the article.
The claims about a secret UK-Ukrainian rare earth minerals deal are speculative as far as I'm aware since nothing is contained in last year's "security guarantee" agreement nor January's "100-year-long partnership" one:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65a14a6ae96df50014f845d2/UK-Ukraine_Agreement_on_Security_Co-operation.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/one-hundred-year-partnership-agreement-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-ukraine
Even if something was agreed to, I find it very difficult to imagine that the UK would be able to extract everything under the US' nose or that Trump would let it slide that they beat him to the punch in this deal.
I agree with you there about the US not knowing, or losing out, so to speak. At one time I used to watch TV soaps and now am finding geopolitics far more intriguing!
Also: The timing of presentation and the quality of information forwarded by Ukraine on the rare-earth/mineral issue is highly susceptible. The supposed presence of these resources was started to be reported mostly in the last few months, after the Trump victory, when Ukraine has anticipated the coming hard times with Trump. Many of these resources were traced back to pre-1991 communist “discoveries”. I can tell you after decades of studies of the Soviet Bloc that no information coming from them can be classified reliable. Falsifying economic, demographic, military stats and all information was a trade they were engaged in fulltime. In addition it was also reported recently that many of these mineral resources are difficult to access. They might be in remote locations or in very deep mines. Trump would be wise to send in a large group of experts to evaluate the situation there independently. Any reported rare-earth locations that were not mined already before the start of the war (February 24, 2022) are suspicious as these were highly profitable enterprises decades ago.
In the eastern European areas the local gypsies are well known about the ancient art of selling the same horse multiple times. Is it possible that Zelensky learned this remarkable trade from traveling gypsies in his area? I also received a fairly well documented writing from a generally dependable source yesterday, bringing the news of the same double-deal. (See below)
The UK-Ukraine agreement was signed on the 16th of January, 2025 just four days before Trump moved into the (Formerly) White House. The same news came to me from a Central European source, fairly well documented, yesterday. Zelensky signed the deal for 100 years. It is difficult to believe that Trump had not known about this on the 28th of March, last Friday at the time of the White House meeting with Zelensky. There is a substantial gap in the flow of logics connected to events here. Since the “humorist with limited talent” was selling the same horse a second time; Why would Trump even open the door for him on Friday morning? Maybe they had seen a possibly way to separate the UK from the 100 year deal? After all the entire whole Trump plan was resting on the mineral deal. As soon as Zelensky rushed back to Europe the UK issued a $2 billion credit on March 2, 2025, for the manufacturing of 5,000 air defense missiles. In other words the UK stepped up to the role of the No. 1 Warmonger. I am wondering what Nigel Farage will have to say about this. This event might open the door for him to take over the UK government. .
Even if true, the uk would in a heartbeat drop any claim to Ukrainian resources, if that would get the US to commit to war.
All Euro deals that aren’t hot air will be set aside for whatever Trump wants - or else.
The EU is completely trying to bluff this out but the bluff is obvious because they always condition anything on a VERY hypothetical “US backstop”.
Andrew - Excellent points - It is clear that President Trump and President Putin want to end the war. Elections and democracy need to happen in Ukraine as part of the peace process. Zelensky is holding up the peace process, in my opinion.
What military aid exactly was paused? Weapons can be substituted. Money is famously fungible. But intelligence, satellite recon data and Starlink cannot readily be replaced.
The AFU will not be able to fight after three days of those items you listed being stopped. The Ukraine will get zero concessions. Do they thing the EU can replace any of that Plus: paying Ukraine's civil service, retiree's pensions, and a miriad of other things. Trump was right to tell Zelenskiy that Ukraine had NO cards to play.
Not arguing any of that. The question is whether any of those things in fact were stopped, and anyway, it looks like Trump is back in, Zelenskii will grovel and flatter appropriately.
Putin will not agree to any deals on Ukraine soley because the US cannot be trusted. He's already made it clear there will be no cease fire agreement.
"...as Trump makes bold moves to force Zelensky to the peace table with Putin..." I very much doubt that Trump will want Zelensky negotiating directly with Putin because Putin has already stated that he and the Russian Military elite do not recognise Zelensky as the legitimate leader of the Ukrainian nation and that Zelensky is not popular with the Ukrainian electorate. Trump will also prevent British, French and German direct participation in the peace negotiations because as rightfully so, Putin's complaint is solely with Ukraine, not the EU, NATO or any other European organisation. The best role USA can play here is mediator. The worst the US can do is insist in constructing commercial peace related deals with Ukrainian resources that will only benefit the Zelensky regime and global capitalists.
The goal is to divide Russia from China. China is Trump's focus.
Love your articles Andrew. Agree with most of it. China and Russia have a big thing going. Plus Russia must be aware that Trump's term will end one day and the hawks may come back. Furthermore, the West can't be trusted after what happened with Minsk2 and the fact that Russia was lured into a war against a brother nation.
My concern is that Russia has been patient, wise and mature in response to all escalations from the West. Once the war is over though....oh boy. If I were Europe I'd be concerned Russia becomes a spoiler.
The Ukraine and the EU are making themselves repelent to the US's interests and are a financial drain on the US economy. The US needs Russia to counterbalance/contain China's expansionist tendencies. Putin knows this also and he also knows he can't challenge China alone. China is only a marriage of convenience for Russia due to the West's economic sanctions. Putin's mindset is with the West but he won't cooperate if he, or Russia, are disrespected. Putin has been provoked and lied to repeatedly during the 25 years he's been at the top and Trump's job will be difficult because he will need to: remove any possibility of Ukraine entering NATO, removal of the criminally installed, via coup sponsored by the US State Department and the US CIA, government and hold free and fair elections, return the frozen Russian bank accounts, remove economic sanctions, agree that the Ukraine must become neutral like Austria and Switzerland, agree to reset the Russia/Ukraine land borders to Russia's comfort level, bring Russia into the European Common Market with full trading rights, and possibly more, if he wants Russia to be a true ally. While he is trying to enlist Russia as an ally, he must also convince the American public that this is to their benefit while the Propaganda Press will be working overtime calling Trump "Putin's Puppet". Trump's success is America's success so if you pray, pray for Trump's success.
The problem with reality is that it has a tendency of catching up with people and places. Ukraine, under the management of Sleepy Joe carried on this conflict, dancing on the edge of nuclear war for over three years. Over ten million Ukrainians run from their own country and the rudimental, corrupted low tech economy was decimated together with the male population. Ukraine could never win this war and this was well known to Biden as well as Zelenskyy from day one. The Ukraine population was sucked into this hopeless situation by a bunch of corrupted psychopaths.
I would assume that of course there are differences both in aims and opinion.
After all the RF has pretty much divorced themselves from the US and Europe. That's the main reason sanctions have failed to wreck the RF economy.
China is now divorcing itself, but it's a long process seeing as the US was a major export direction.
Both have been perceptive in that they saw the possibility of a Swift ejection, and developed their own systems.
But to say that because they aren't joined at the hip therefore they are
Don't think Trump understands WW3 or is driven by avoiding it, it is beyond his comprehension. What drives him is luckily in direction away from WW3 and just coincidentally. Trump probably understands that prolonging Biden's war will make him a loser and wants to avoid that at any cost. Being that he is transactional, a deal with ruskies is likely.