The recent worsening of Poland’s ties with Germany and Ukraine, which is partly attributable to the ruling party’s electioneering strategy, just led to those two entering into a military partnership. Germany’s promised military patronage of Ukraine poses no threat to Poland, but is intended to help Kiev diversify from its disproportionate strategic dependence on Warsaw so as to deter this former Great Power’s irredentist plans in Eastern Galicia that are presently being advanced by socio-economic means.
Of course, Russia might have the last word on all of this: "Post-war Ukraine? What post-war Ukraine?"
If Russia is compelled by events to complete a total military victory (assuming it can), I could see a scenario resembling what the Americans did in post-World War II Japan. Russia might impose a military occupation throughout all of Ukraine that remains in place until the situation is stabilized. At some point, limited autonomy could be granted in Galicia, although Russia would retain control over that rump state's military defense and foreign policy. (Even today it can be argued that Japan's military takes its orders from Washington and the country is not in total control of its foreign policy.)
I'm aware of the potential pitfalls: the cost of maintaining an occupation would be a burden, world opinion might be negative, etc. But for Russia, Ukraine remains an existential security issue and the west will never quit screwing around over there until the door is slammed in their collective face.
Of course, Russia might have the last word on all of this: "Post-war Ukraine? What post-war Ukraine?"
If Russia is compelled by events to complete a total military victory (assuming it can), I could see a scenario resembling what the Americans did in post-World War II Japan. Russia might impose a military occupation throughout all of Ukraine that remains in place until the situation is stabilized. At some point, limited autonomy could be granted in Galicia, although Russia would retain control over that rump state's military defense and foreign policy. (Even today it can be argued that Japan's military takes its orders from Washington and the country is not in total control of its foreign policy.)
I'm aware of the potential pitfalls: the cost of maintaining an occupation would be a burden, world opinion might be negative, etc. But for Russia, Ukraine remains an existential security issue and the west will never quit screwing around over there until the door is slammed in their collective face.