Here’s How The Pakistani Establishment Benefits From The Latest Tensions With Iran

Observers might expect that the exacerbation of long-running Iranian-Pakistani tensions would be against Islamabad’s interests, just like they might think the same about closer Indian-Iranian relations in the aftermath of this unprecedented tit-for-tat against designated terrorists in Balochistan. In reality, the Pakistani Establishment – which refers to the country’s powerful military-intelligence structures that call the shots behind the scenes – stands to benefit from this crisis.

Iran initiated an unprecedented tit-for-tat with Pakistan earlier this week by unilaterally striking Tehran-designated terrorist-separatists across the border, which prompted Pakistan to retaliate the day later by striking Islamabad-designated terrorist-separatists on the Iranian side of the shared Baluchistan subregion. The resultant crisis threatens Eurasian integration processes and could be exploited by the US to divide-and-rule the supercontinent. Here are three background briefings to bring readers up to speed:

* “The Optics & Timing Of Iran’s Strikes In Pakistan Are More Important Than The Military Impact”

* “Pakistan’s Retaliation Against Iran Debunks The Theory That They’re Secretly Cooperating”

* “Worsening Iranian-Pakistani Tensions Could Threaten Eurasian Integration Processes”

It’s also worth mentioning that this development represents yet another example of India and the US’ growing strategic divergences over the past few months after Delhi expressed support for Tehran’s anti-terrorist strike while Washington condemned it as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty. That was to be expected, however, given the newly strengthened Indian-Iranian Strategic Partnership in recent years and the reassertion of American hegemony over Pakistan since April 2022’s post-modern coup.

On the surface, observers might expect that the exacerbation of long-running Iranian-Pakistani tensions would be against Islamabad’s interests, just like they might think the same about closer Indian-Iranian relations in the aftermath of this unprecedented tit-for-tat against designated terrorists in Balochistan. In reality, the Pakistani Establishment – which refers to the country’s powerful military-intelligence structures that call the shots behind the scenes – stands to benefit from this crisis in the following ways:

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1. Pakistanis Of All Political Stripes Immediately United Around The Armed Forces

The nearly two years that have passed since April 2022’s post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan divided the country into those who opposed and supported his arguably US-approved ouster. The de facto imposition of martial law since last May dangerously worsened this rift, yet Pakistanis of all political stripes have united around the armed forces after Iran’s initial attack, which can help relieve pressure upon the Establishment ahead of planned elections next month.   

2. Pakistan Also Proved To The West That It Can Be A Reliable Anti-Iranian Ally

The latest Israeli-Hamas war, which has evolved into a regional Iranian-Israeli proxy war, brought West Asia back into the West’s focus after the past two years of waging their proxy war on Russia through Ukraine and attempting to “Pivot to Asia” almost a decade prior to that. Iran is now considered a priority target for containment and destabilization on par with Russia and China, with Pakistan regarded as the most reliable ally to do so after Thursday’s retaliatory strikes were the first against Iran since the 1980s.

3. Western Criticism Of Pakistan’s Upcoming Flawed Elections Is Therefore Unlikely

No objective observer expects Pakistan’s upcoming elections to be truly free and fair, yet Western criticism is now unlikely or will at least remain very muted due to that bloc’s newfound interest in relying on Pakistan for containing and destabilizing Iran as explained above. Western officials are therefore expected to turn a blind eye to this anti-democratic charade at the expense of their side’s soft power interests since it’s the quid pro quo for keeping post-coup Pakistan in their camp in the New Cold War.

4. The West Now Has A Reason To Keep Arms & Aid Flowing To Pakistan As Well

Pakistan used to take second place to India in the US’ South Asian strategy, but that changed as a result of the troubles in Indo-US ties and Pakistan’s new role in containing Iran, the first of which coincided with military chief Asim Munir’s trip to DC in mid-December that preceded the second by one month. Under these new conditions, there’ll no longer be any reluctance among American policymakers to withhold arms or aid to Pakistan since it’s now deemed much more important to the US than India.

5. Pakistan Can Play China & The US Off Against One Another After Re-Allying With America

The deterioration in ties with the US that occurred as a result of former Prime Minister Khan’s pro-Pakistani and multipolar policies was reversed by his Establishment-selected successors’ decision to resubordinate their country to its hegemony. By re-allying with America after Iran’s initial attack as is expected to happen per the predicted sequence of events detailed above, Pakistan can now more adroitly play it and China off against one another to the Establishment’s maximum benefit.

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With these five benefits in mind, the reasons behind Iran’s decision to unilaterally strike Pakistan in the first place should be deeply dwelled upon seeing as how that fateful choice is poised to radically revolutionize regional affairs. Iran would have certainly expected a retaliatory strike and all that it entails as was just explained, yet it still did so anyhow, thus suggesting that its policymakers concluded that it would ultimately be better than not doing anything at all.

As counterintuitive as that might sound, there’s a cogent logic to this thought process. Iran and Pakistan have been embroiled in a dangerous security dilemma over their mutual allegations that each is weaponizing terrorist-designated groups against the other in the shared Balochistan subregion. From Iran’s perspective, which was explained in the first of the three previously hyperlinked analyses above, Pakistan was probably suspected of organizing a major terrorist provocation at the US’ behest.

If that’s an accurate assessment of its policymakers’ calculations, then they might have thought it better to act first and safeguard their security at the expense of accelerating the aforementioned revolution in regional affairs than painfully delay it at the cost of more terrorist attacks. Iran’s calculations mirror Russia’s on the eve of its special operation whereby Moscow also concluded that it’s better to act first than wait till its neighbor turns into a full US proxy and then it’s more difficult to decisively act if need be.

This insight suggests that the US weaponized security dilemmas in both cases in order to provoke Russia and Iran into respectively acting against Ukraine and Pakistan first after the latter two went along with its plot to exacerbate this selfsame dilemma by refusing to respect the interests of their patron’s rivals. While this comparison is imperfect, it still serves to convey the preceding strategic point, which suggests that the US is perfecting a dangerous proxy war policy that it’ll soon apply against other rivals like China.