I wouldn't get too excited about this. Before any "peace talks" take place, there is the whole question of respect for Russia as an equal, and the matter of trust, of which there is none. I also do not believe there will be any peace talks, and certainly not a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. Russia has nothing to gain by making a "deal." It will dictate the end to this war on its own terms. Putin simply gave Trump a few moments in the sun to crow about all the progress he's making. The only objective thing that resulted from this first phone call is that they agreed to talk again and to meet in person. Yeah, that's good.
Good Analysis. However, as many commentators have said here and elsewhere, the timing is rushed before both sides are ready. Ukrainians are not going to negotiate seriously before Russian forces reach the Dnieper, no matter who is in charge of Ukraine, in name or de facto. Americans will not truly negotiate with a realistic attitude until they learn about the reality. Trump is still soaked with his shock and awe and wants to achieve the maximum in his first 100 days. It will take the Trump admin at least 100 days to grasp the truth of the Ukraine War. Maybe Tucker Carlson could serve the role of Walter Cronkite but I don't think Tucker has as high a prestige as Cronkite. But even Tucker can carry that weight, I don't see the American public ready to receive that kind of news.
Chinese have an old saying: one needs to resolve critical domestic problems and stabilize the domestic situation before one can carry out effective diplomatic and military actions against foreign countries. Neocons are not the only ones inside the US who think the US position in the world now is the same as in 1945, or at least close.
There is pressure on Trump to produce and the only way he can do that is by stopping weapon deliveries to Ukraine. If the whole of NATO stops deliveries the Ukraine war effort will collapse within 6 months. Ukraine is at the same intersection like in the weeks before the start of the war. Either they reach a deal now or they might not have an independent nation later. Mr. Z will be willing to take this risk in exchange for a few more months of plunder and keeping his head attached to his body a while longer. The people of Ukraine have to save themselves and this might be their last chance.
Ukraine was in a much better position in the first 4 weeks of the war (they simply had bad deployment and no effective defense plans when Russia's man thrusts bypassed the strongly defended Donbas defense belt. Now Ukraine has more troops but much less experienced and much less enthusiastic. Even if Trump cuts off all military and financial aid to Ukraine, EU will continue to support the war effort for at least several months (until Germany has a change of government at the earliest). However, I see no real earnestness for the Trump admin to resolve the Ukraine problem until all Trump's nominations pass through the Senate. I suspect Trump should not even talk very much about international politics until then.
As a side note, I'm not sure how much more support the EU has to offer. Their already meager weapons stocks are virtually exhausted, and even if they stump up more cash, they don't have the industrial capability to produce new weapons in the needed quantities. Remember, when they tried to throw more money at the artillery problem last year, all they did was drive the price of shells up four-fold without significantly raising production. The capability is just not there.
What is the word for the US as not being trustworthy, or not agreement capable?
не способен к соглашению
Many in the Alt Media are very scheptikal on all of this, given the decades of western/US lies and broken agreements. What is to say that after Trump goes, some other Russophobe comes to power?
Thank you for your optimistic analysis. But I see a few problems, as follow:
1. The USA is agreement incapable.
2. Donald Trump is agreement incapable.
3. NATO is untrustworthy.
4. The stated goals of the SMO are denazification and demilitiarization of Ukraine, together with arraignment and trial for those guilty of crimes against Ukrainian and Russian citizens, e.g., those who died in the Odessa fire in 2014. Russia can be expected to insist on completing the SMO.
5. Considering the above, I see no reason for Russia to accept a ceasefire, which would allow the Ukrainian forces to regroup. Instead, I expect Russia to insist on Ukrainian capitulation.
6. Trump may talk as if he seeks a win-win negotiation, but past history shows that he is absolutely a zero-sum negotiator, meaning that he perceives any gain by his opponent as a loss for himself. And he hates to lose.
7. Trump is a classic sociopath and if he feels that he has lost in a transaction he will always seek revenge.
I want nothing more than to see the Ukraine war end, but I am not optimistic about this round of negotiation. Nevertheless, it is a step forward. And negotiating an end to the Vietnam War took a long time, but it got done.
Yeah. This means Zelensky administration and his Nazi fanatics are out of Ukraine soon. The people of Ukraine will hopefully vote for someone sensible as Lukashenko.
I agree in general. However, I am not sure about (1) if there is any politician in Ukraine who is still sensible and (2) if there is one or more. Would they dare participate in such an election? Imran Khan, Benazir Bhutto, Yitzhak Rabin, Anwar Sadat, Yasser Arafat are examples.
Good post. Absent from mention here (perhaps because it goes without saying?) is the ultimate disposition of the $300B in frozen Russian assets, the return of which Russia is certain to insist on as part of any settlement. This will likely be a more complex undertaking than the simple lifting of sanctions and restoration of Russia's SWIFT access.
The first problem is that there are more than a few bag-holders out there "pretending" that these assets (or at least the income on them) are serving as either the source of bond/loan repayments, or the guarantee of such repayments. Loud squeals from vested financial interests are certainly to be expected.
The other point of contention might be reparations, which haven't yet been mentioned anywhere. Russia is certain to reject any suggestion that it should make any such payments, and both Ukraine and other Western financial interests will be pushing for something different.
I appreciate the time & thought you give to this situation, Andrew. According to some reports, the majority of UN Peacekeepers are Chinese. What a good deal it would be to have Russia's friends watching the Ukraine side!
You paint a satisfactory & soothing end to this conflict stretching into a lasting peaceful settlement. I can't imagine anyone not liking this. Certainly, a resolution must be contrived; the war cannot continue indefinitely, nor is this desired by President Putin or most Russians. Even if USA can't be trusted, if a treaty can be reached now, there's a least a few years for other aspects in the region to settle down, solidifying a lasting peace.
Want to see more heads explode and the political landscape change even more? Trump and Putin should meet in Vladivostok, Russia, the terminus of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and discuss joint construction of the Berring Strait rail tunnel connecting Russia to Alaska. Before the Ukrainian issue, the Putin administration offered to build and pay for the Berring Strait rail tunnel. Historically the relations between two adversarial nations cool when they engage in a common grand infrastructure project.
The February 12, 2025 statement by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth set off a tectonic movement in the NATO capitols and in the minds of the Ukrainian soldiers as well. Hegseth statement translates to the Ukraine frontline as: Every death is senseless, there is no chance to win and the once beloved pianist/humorist of your nation cornered Ukraine into a major military loss. The whole of the super heated-nationalist war initiation was a calculated “mistake”. Now comes the reevaluation of Mr. Z, from a heroic superman status to a corrupted murderer of sons and fathers. The whole thing reminds me of N.S. Khrushchev’s secret speech of February 1956 that was read loudly in the Budapest beer halls soon (courtesy of the CIA) and by October 23 (1956) started an irreversible process, also called “The Stalingrad of Communism.”
I wouldn't get too excited about this. Before any "peace talks" take place, there is the whole question of respect for Russia as an equal, and the matter of trust, of which there is none. I also do not believe there will be any peace talks, and certainly not a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. Russia has nothing to gain by making a "deal." It will dictate the end to this war on its own terms. Putin simply gave Trump a few moments in the sun to crow about all the progress he's making. The only objective thing that resulted from this first phone call is that they agreed to talk again and to meet in person. Yeah, that's good.
Good Analysis. However, as many commentators have said here and elsewhere, the timing is rushed before both sides are ready. Ukrainians are not going to negotiate seriously before Russian forces reach the Dnieper, no matter who is in charge of Ukraine, in name or de facto. Americans will not truly negotiate with a realistic attitude until they learn about the reality. Trump is still soaked with his shock and awe and wants to achieve the maximum in his first 100 days. It will take the Trump admin at least 100 days to grasp the truth of the Ukraine War. Maybe Tucker Carlson could serve the role of Walter Cronkite but I don't think Tucker has as high a prestige as Cronkite. But even Tucker can carry that weight, I don't see the American public ready to receive that kind of news.
Chinese have an old saying: one needs to resolve critical domestic problems and stabilize the domestic situation before one can carry out effective diplomatic and military actions against foreign countries. Neocons are not the only ones inside the US who think the US position in the world now is the same as in 1945, or at least close.
There is pressure on Trump to produce and the only way he can do that is by stopping weapon deliveries to Ukraine. If the whole of NATO stops deliveries the Ukraine war effort will collapse within 6 months. Ukraine is at the same intersection like in the weeks before the start of the war. Either they reach a deal now or they might not have an independent nation later. Mr. Z will be willing to take this risk in exchange for a few more months of plunder and keeping his head attached to his body a while longer. The people of Ukraine have to save themselves and this might be their last chance.
Ukraine was in a much better position in the first 4 weeks of the war (they simply had bad deployment and no effective defense plans when Russia's man thrusts bypassed the strongly defended Donbas defense belt. Now Ukraine has more troops but much less experienced and much less enthusiastic. Even if Trump cuts off all military and financial aid to Ukraine, EU will continue to support the war effort for at least several months (until Germany has a change of government at the earliest). However, I see no real earnestness for the Trump admin to resolve the Ukraine problem until all Trump's nominations pass through the Senate. I suspect Trump should not even talk very much about international politics until then.
As a side note, I'm not sure how much more support the EU has to offer. Their already meager weapons stocks are virtually exhausted, and even if they stump up more cash, they don't have the industrial capability to produce new weapons in the needed quantities. Remember, when they tried to throw more money at the artillery problem last year, all they did was drive the price of shells up four-fold without significantly raising production. The capability is just not there.
What is the word for the US as not being trustworthy, or not agreement capable?
не способен к соглашению
Many in the Alt Media are very scheptikal on all of this, given the decades of western/US lies and broken agreements. What is to say that after Trump goes, some other Russophobe comes to power?
Thank you for your optimistic analysis. But I see a few problems, as follow:
1. The USA is agreement incapable.
2. Donald Trump is agreement incapable.
3. NATO is untrustworthy.
4. The stated goals of the SMO are denazification and demilitiarization of Ukraine, together with arraignment and trial for those guilty of crimes against Ukrainian and Russian citizens, e.g., those who died in the Odessa fire in 2014. Russia can be expected to insist on completing the SMO.
5. Considering the above, I see no reason for Russia to accept a ceasefire, which would allow the Ukrainian forces to regroup. Instead, I expect Russia to insist on Ukrainian capitulation.
6. Trump may talk as if he seeks a win-win negotiation, but past history shows that he is absolutely a zero-sum negotiator, meaning that he perceives any gain by his opponent as a loss for himself. And he hates to lose.
7. Trump is a classic sociopath and if he feels that he has lost in a transaction he will always seek revenge.
I want nothing more than to see the Ukraine war end, but I am not optimistic about this round of negotiation. Nevertheless, it is a step forward. And negotiating an end to the Vietnam War took a long time, but it got done.
Yeah. This means Zelensky administration and his Nazi fanatics are out of Ukraine soon. The people of Ukraine will hopefully vote for someone sensible as Lukashenko.
I agree in general. However, I am not sure about (1) if there is any politician in Ukraine who is still sensible and (2) if there is one or more. Would they dare participate in such an election? Imran Khan, Benazir Bhutto, Yitzhak Rabin, Anwar Sadat, Yasser Arafat are examples.
Good post. Absent from mention here (perhaps because it goes without saying?) is the ultimate disposition of the $300B in frozen Russian assets, the return of which Russia is certain to insist on as part of any settlement. This will likely be a more complex undertaking than the simple lifting of sanctions and restoration of Russia's SWIFT access.
The first problem is that there are more than a few bag-holders out there "pretending" that these assets (or at least the income on them) are serving as either the source of bond/loan repayments, or the guarantee of such repayments. Loud squeals from vested financial interests are certainly to be expected.
The other point of contention might be reparations, which haven't yet been mentioned anywhere. Russia is certain to reject any suggestion that it should make any such payments, and both Ukraine and other Western financial interests will be pushing for something different.
Both are things to ponder.
I appreciate the time & thought you give to this situation, Andrew. According to some reports, the majority of UN Peacekeepers are Chinese. What a good deal it would be to have Russia's friends watching the Ukraine side!
You paint a satisfactory & soothing end to this conflict stretching into a lasting peaceful settlement. I can't imagine anyone not liking this. Certainly, a resolution must be contrived; the war cannot continue indefinitely, nor is this desired by President Putin or most Russians. Even if USA can't be trusted, if a treaty can be reached now, there's a least a few years for other aspects in the region to settle down, solidifying a lasting peace.
Want to see more heads explode and the political landscape change even more? Trump and Putin should meet in Vladivostok, Russia, the terminus of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and discuss joint construction of the Berring Strait rail tunnel connecting Russia to Alaska. Before the Ukrainian issue, the Putin administration offered to build and pay for the Berring Strait rail tunnel. Historically the relations between two adversarial nations cool when they engage in a common grand infrastructure project.
Remember The Great North Korean Cofeve? Trump blew hot and blew cold, neocons get excited and sad, in the end, not a lot changed.
The February 12, 2025 statement by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth set off a tectonic movement in the NATO capitols and in the minds of the Ukrainian soldiers as well. Hegseth statement translates to the Ukraine frontline as: Every death is senseless, there is no chance to win and the once beloved pianist/humorist of your nation cornered Ukraine into a major military loss. The whole of the super heated-nationalist war initiation was a calculated “mistake”. Now comes the reevaluation of Mr. Z, from a heroic superman status to a corrupted murderer of sons and fathers. The whole thing reminds me of N.S. Khrushchev’s secret speech of February 1956 that was read loudly in the Budapest beer halls soon (courtesy of the CIA) and by October 23 (1956) started an irreversible process, also called “The Stalingrad of Communism.”