These five trends are considered to be the most significant grand strategic ones that are expected to have the greatest impact on the global systemic transition across the coming year.
Hi Andrew, is China going to wait till the US is properly prepared for war in the coming decade without pre-emting its preparation? How might it do that peacefully, or is that impossible?
Is there not ample opportunity to diffuse such a war before the US is combat ready? By financial means or by depriving it of key export resources and goods?
China is modernizing its armed forces and building up its missile capabilities according to reports so they're not siting idly while the US rearms.
As for how to defuse this security dilemma, it's theoretically possible and no hot war should be taken for granted despite expectations of one in the coming future.
One scenario is "Great Power collaboration", as India's Jaishankar hinted at, whereby the "G2" of "Chimerica" reaches a "new normal" to divide the world between themselves.
China doesn't aspire for hegemony though so I'm uncertain that it would agree to something like that, but informal delineation of interests is possible.
Even so, AUKUS+ likely isn't going anywhere and will probably morph into an "Asian NATO" soon enough.
Hi Andrew, is China going to wait till the US is properly prepared for war in the coming decade without pre-emting its preparation? How might it do that peacefully, or is that impossible?
Is there not ample opportunity to diffuse such a war before the US is combat ready? By financial means or by depriving it of key export resources and goods?
Why do most commentators think war is inevitable?
China is modernizing its armed forces and building up its missile capabilities according to reports so they're not siting idly while the US rearms.
As for how to defuse this security dilemma, it's theoretically possible and no hot war should be taken for granted despite expectations of one in the coming future.
One scenario is "Great Power collaboration", as India's Jaishankar hinted at, whereby the "G2" of "Chimerica" reaches a "new normal" to divide the world between themselves.
China doesn't aspire for hegemony though so I'm uncertain that it would agree to something like that, but informal delineation of interests is possible.
Even so, AUKUS+ likely isn't going anywhere and will probably morph into an "Asian NATO" soon enough.
Thanks for this reply, Andrew.,💯