Putin might agree to freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact in spite of prior rhetoric against this scenario in the event that Trump threatens to escalate the conflict as punishment if he doesn’t.
"Putin might agree to freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact in spite of prior rhetoric against this scenario in the event that Trump threatens to escalate the conflict as punishment if he doesn’t."
That would certainly dovetail most comfortably with the 'Deep-State's' plans for Russia. Even if not in the short term, by undermining and invalidating Putin's authority, it would most certainly corrupt the integrity of his legacy. In the long-term, with the constant drip-drip-drip of such a wide range of instruments, as the Deep State has available to it, the integrity of the Russian state and its associated authority, should be much easier to undermine. That's how colour revolutions are made. It's not an overnight process; Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Wolfowitz Doctrine's original Fat's Nuland-and-Moron McCain team may not have been successful in the first instance. (Первый блин — комом.) What you describe here, though, would most certainly be the most likely way for the Americans to prevail in their plans to subvert, undermine and eventually collapse the Russian state with the aim or disassembling to 'influence' and bend ('Balkanise') it to their will.
At best we would be kicking the ball down the street and form a new NK/SK scenario with the Dnieper River serving as the Han River. If Mr. Putin is willing to accept Trump's proposal (Mr. Putin will negotiate really hard, I am sure) then the Russian forces had better reach Dnieper River, or at least fairly close to the river such that the left bank remaining under Ukraine control but serves as buffer zone. Reaching Dnieper would cost higher casualties and risk NATO escalation. Not reaching Dnieper would mean a viable Ukraine state can survive with the river remaining as a main artery. IMHO, it is better not to trust the hope that Trump's advisors this round would be much better. They are all selected from the same pool, the same universities, the same supervising professors, the same think tanks, or cut their teeth under the same boss. The shades may be different, but the color would be the same. What is actually under Russian military control is the only thing Mr. Putin can count on.
"The shades may be different, but the color would be the same."
And the resulting 'revolution' likewise inevitable (see [my comment] above).
Whether it's five or ten or fifteen or fifty years down the road, long, long after Putin himself has gone, will be of secondary importance to 'Trump's advisors' [your words] or anyone else in the American 'Deep State'.
How can the US threaten to escalate (to de-escalate). Maybe Mr. Korybko should read into the recently released report of the Kiel institute on the non existent Western capacity for war...
As for sanctions and other financial threats to tighten the screws, yeah, let's see.
The wild card is the Biden administration. Biden has a lot of sh*te hidden in his Ukraine closet, but he, his wife, and son are all super vindictive people (look how Hunter treated his own child). The future is unknown, but I would not be surprised if they do something super nasty to make it even harder for Trump to carry off a peace deal, and he'll have the backing of his State Department and maybe a few Neo-nazis in the otherwise restraining Pentagon.
While the above maybe something that can be a hard sell for Russia, it will be an impossible sell for Trump... the whole US foreign policy establishment is made of cold warriors and he has not the media control Putin holds; he will be shredded to pieces daily and go to lose midterm... I guess a deflection of attention and resources away from Ukraine, rising stakes and tension in Taiwan and SCS, while making mediatically palatable to US public the Ukraine regime fall, Vietnam post-paris accords style, is more likely.
I suspect that Protecting Israel will take the front seat, and Phillippine-China-South China Sea would become the comfort prize for the MIC. The Army and Airforce contractors have had several good years running. Now is the time for Navy subcontractors to get their fair share.
Such considerations as implied by comments here will require months of negotiations and bickering—other NATO members will chime in and dig in their heels. EVERYONE has answers in this kind of stand down. The dangers of “I told you so” are myriad.
Won't the Putin administration have to complete the occupation of the entire area of the four oblasts that voted to join Russia and the Duma certified? That is. can only the Duma negotiate that away?
If putin does agree then he is an idiot. Can't solve the issue this way so I highly doubt it will happen...... "the objectives of the SMO will be achieved... "
"Putin might agree to freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact in spite of prior rhetoric against this scenario in the event that Trump threatens to escalate the conflict as punishment if he doesn’t."
That would certainly dovetail most comfortably with the 'Deep-State's' plans for Russia. Even if not in the short term, by undermining and invalidating Putin's authority, it would most certainly corrupt the integrity of his legacy. In the long-term, with the constant drip-drip-drip of such a wide range of instruments, as the Deep State has available to it, the integrity of the Russian state and its associated authority, should be much easier to undermine. That's how colour revolutions are made. It's not an overnight process; Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Wolfowitz Doctrine's original Fat's Nuland-and-Moron McCain team may not have been successful in the first instance. (Первый блин — комом.) What you describe here, though, would most certainly be the most likely way for the Americans to prevail in their plans to subvert, undermine and eventually collapse the Russian state with the aim or disassembling to 'influence' and bend ('Balkanise') it to their will.
At best we would be kicking the ball down the street and form a new NK/SK scenario with the Dnieper River serving as the Han River. If Mr. Putin is willing to accept Trump's proposal (Mr. Putin will negotiate really hard, I am sure) then the Russian forces had better reach Dnieper River, or at least fairly close to the river such that the left bank remaining under Ukraine control but serves as buffer zone. Reaching Dnieper would cost higher casualties and risk NATO escalation. Not reaching Dnieper would mean a viable Ukraine state can survive with the river remaining as a main artery. IMHO, it is better not to trust the hope that Trump's advisors this round would be much better. They are all selected from the same pool, the same universities, the same supervising professors, the same think tanks, or cut their teeth under the same boss. The shades may be different, but the color would be the same. What is actually under Russian military control is the only thing Mr. Putin can count on.
"The shades may be different, but the color would be the same."
And the resulting 'revolution' likewise inevitable (see [my comment] above).
Whether it's five or ten or fifteen or fifty years down the road, long, long after Putin himself has gone, will be of secondary importance to 'Trump's advisors' [your words] or anyone else in the American 'Deep State'.
How can the US threaten to escalate (to de-escalate). Maybe Mr. Korybko should read into the recently released report of the Kiel institute on the non existent Western capacity for war...
As for sanctions and other financial threats to tighten the screws, yeah, let's see.
In other words, Russia accepts whst is at best a Pyrrhic victory, in a war that Russia should have been able to win decisively in 24 hours.
The wild card is the Biden administration. Biden has a lot of sh*te hidden in his Ukraine closet, but he, his wife, and son are all super vindictive people (look how Hunter treated his own child). The future is unknown, but I would not be surprised if they do something super nasty to make it even harder for Trump to carry off a peace deal, and he'll have the backing of his State Department and maybe a few Neo-nazis in the otherwise restraining Pentagon.
While the above maybe something that can be a hard sell for Russia, it will be an impossible sell for Trump... the whole US foreign policy establishment is made of cold warriors and he has not the media control Putin holds; he will be shredded to pieces daily and go to lose midterm... I guess a deflection of attention and resources away from Ukraine, rising stakes and tension in Taiwan and SCS, while making mediatically palatable to US public the Ukraine regime fall, Vietnam post-paris accords style, is more likely.
I suspect that Protecting Israel will take the front seat, and Phillippine-China-South China Sea would become the comfort prize for the MIC. The Army and Airforce contractors have had several good years running. Now is the time for Navy subcontractors to get their fair share.
His "tough-talking personality" did not get him far in the conflict with North Korea during the first term.
Such considerations as implied by comments here will require months of negotiations and bickering—other NATO members will chime in and dig in their heels. EVERYONE has answers in this kind of stand down. The dangers of “I told you so” are myriad.
Won't the Putin administration have to complete the occupation of the entire area of the four oblasts that voted to join Russia and the Duma certified? That is. can only the Duma negotiate that away?
Russia do not give a toss about Trump peace plan.
In the case Trump will decide to escalate the offensive WW3 will begin and NATO will be just annihilated.
If putin does agree then he is an idiot. Can't solve the issue this way so I highly doubt it will happen...... "the objectives of the SMO will be achieved... "