Azerbaijan’s pivotal role in TRIPP, which is the new means through which the US aims to encircle Russia along its entire southern periphery, is why it’s important to pay attention to his views.
I see it very differently. I consider Aliyev to be genuinely popular, especially after Azerbaijan's ultimate victory in the Karabakh War and subsequent subordination of Armenia as a de facto vassal, and I don't believe that there's any serious resistance to him at the civil society or "deep state" levels.
I also do not believe that Russia wields the required influence within either group to encourage, let alone successfully pull off, a regime change. In fact, my candid assessment is that Russia's influence in the South Caucasus hasn't been this weak in the two centuries since the Empire incorporated Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
They used to have a “friendly” relationship until recently. The fraying started prior to the plane shoot down so there may be undercurrents we not privy to. Historically they are of Turkic descent so Erdogan has probably been whispering sweet nothings in his ears to join “the force” and NATO. Their armed services are now NATO compliant.
I agree, my only points are that Aliyev really is popular among Azeris and there's no realistic chance of a Color Revolution and/or military coup ousting him.
Russia and Iran are cl;ose partners. That will never change. Sandwiched in between these 2 countries are Armenia, Georgia & Azerbaijan. Given what has happened to Armenia and can happen to Georgia 2 Christian countries puts Azerbajin into not important.
Aliyev is less of a president and more of a figurehead supported by elites, criminal gangs and business interests.
It would likely be in Russias interest to gauge the interest among this constituency for a change in leadership. And maybe a bigger cut for them?
I see it very differently. I consider Aliyev to be genuinely popular, especially after Azerbaijan's ultimate victory in the Karabakh War and subsequent subordination of Armenia as a de facto vassal, and I don't believe that there's any serious resistance to him at the civil society or "deep state" levels.
I also do not believe that Russia wields the required influence within either group to encourage, let alone successfully pull off, a regime change. In fact, my candid assessment is that Russia's influence in the South Caucasus hasn't been this weak in the two centuries since the Empire incorporated Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
They used to have a “friendly” relationship until recently. The fraying started prior to the plane shoot down so there may be undercurrents we not privy to. Historically they are of Turkic descent so Erdogan has probably been whispering sweet nothings in his ears to join “the force” and NATO. Their armed services are now NATO compliant.
I agree, my only points are that Aliyev really is popular among Azeris and there's no realistic chance of a Color Revolution and/or military coup ousting him.
Here's what I think placed him on the path to confronting and now containing Russia:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/aliyev-expects-to-rise-to-global
Russia and Iran are cl;ose partners. That will never change. Sandwiched in between these 2 countries are Armenia, Georgia & Azerbaijan. Given what has happened to Armenia and can happen to Georgia 2 Christian countries puts Azerbajin into not important.