India’s Reportedly Planned Purchase Of Over 100 Rafales Might Have Partial Political Motives

It’s reasonable to speculate that this might be another tacit quo pro quo that India agreed to as part of its trade deal with the US alongside its earlier reported planned reduction of Russian oil.

Local media reported just ahead of Macron’s visit this week that India’s recent approval of a nearly $40 billion defense package includes the purchase of over 100 Rafale jets. While it’s possible that this is objectively the best means for ensuring India’s national security interests, the argument can compellingly be made that there might have been partial political motives involved. The reason for such speculation is the new strategic context brought about by the Indo-US trade deal.

Trump claimed that India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil in favor of American and possibly Venezuelan oil, and while India didn’t confirm that, its purchase of Russian oil declined in the run-up to their deal and is expected to continue in that direction. The US imposed punitive tariffs of 25% on India last summer due to its large-scale import of Russian oil, which were rescinded as part of their deal. Trump’s Executive Order threatened that they could be reimposed if India resumes these purchases.

The abovementioned precedent of India’s ultimate de facto compliance with the US’ energy sanctions against Russia in spite of its official claims to the contrary is the basis upon which observers can reasonably speculate that it might also ultimately de facto comply with the US’ military sanctions. The US has hitherto turned a blind eye to India’s continued purchase of Russian military-technical equipment despite the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA) from Trump 1.0.

As Trump 2.0 comprehensively ramps up its pressure campaign against Russia in response to Putin continuing to reject the significant compromises being demanded of him in exchange for peace in Ukraine, it’s therefore possible that the US will no longer ignore India’s CAATSA violations. This might have even been communicated to India throughout the course of their trade negotiations and could thus possibly be another quid pro quo that was tacitly agreed to in exchange for early February’s deal.

Additionally, if India approved a big-ticket jet or other new purchase from Russia shortly after Trump celebrated his deal with Modi (and it wasn’t just S-400 or other Russian ammo for maintaining its existing equipment), Trump might have lashed out against Modi and risked scuttling their deal. This scenario presumably figured into Indian policymakers’ calculations and accordingly lends credence to speculation that some partial political motives are at play in its planned purchase of over 100 Rafale jets.

Regardless of whether this was truly the case or not, the outcome will almost certainly be interpreted through a political lens by Russia and the West alike. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024” report from spring 2025 highlighted the Franco-Russo competition for India’s arms market. India was their top customer at 28% and 38% of sales respectively from 2020-2024, while India imported 33% and 36% of its arms from them during that time.

India’s planned purchase of over 100 Rafale jets will consequently make France its top supplier over Russia, which can’t but generate widespread media attention, not to mention praise from French officials and their Western allies while making their Russian counterparts very uneasy. Russian-Indian relations are still expected to remain strong, but if the energy and possibly soon military-technical foundation begins to weaken under US pressure, then they might eventually drift apart if trade doesn’t diversify.