Multipolar processes would continue, but their trajectory would radically change, and Indo-Sino tensions would become a globally significant factor in the New Cold War.
India’s News 18 reported on Tuesday about how “In A Tit-For-Tat Move, India To Rename 30 Places In Tibet In Response To China's Arunachal Aggression”, which followed The Diplomat’s report titled “China-India Name War Intensifies in the Himalayas”. According to both outlets’ sources, newly re-elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to reciprocally respond to China’s renaming of Indian-controlled regions that it claims as its own, thus informally reopening the “Tibet question”.
India recognizes Tibet as part of China, but renaming residential areas and geographic features there just like China has done in Arunachal Pradesh would imply a tacit change in this policy similar to how Prime Minister Modi thanking the Taiwanese leader on X for his congratulations implied a change to that one. The unmistakable message that the second move sent was analyzed here, which can be summarized as him signaling that he’ll play hardball with China during his third term after finally losing patience with it.
Their decades-long unresolved border dispute, which reached crisis proportions during summer 2020’s lethal clashes over the Galwan River Valley, remains one of the world’s most important geopolitical fault lines. It’s prevented these Asian Great Powers from closely coordinating their actions in BRICS and the SCO, thus impeding both groups’ ability to accelerate multipolar processes. Each side blames the other for this, which is why tensions have escalated in a tit-for-tat fashion and will likely continue to do so.
If India informally reopens the “Tibet question” through the reported means, then comprehensive cooperation between it and China in those two aforementioned multipolar groups would likely become impossible to imagine for some time, if ever again. China takes all perceived threats to its territorial integrity very seriously, though India could plausibly deny any such threat so long as it doesn’t officially rescind recognition of China’s control over Tibet and instead point out China’s hypocritical reaction.
After all, if China protests this move, then India could rhetorically ask what the problem is since China renamed Indian-controlled land first. Although the difference is that China lays formal claim to Arunachal Pradesh (which it considers “South Tibet” despite only briefly controlling it during their 1962 war) while India doesn’t claim Tibet or recognize it as occupied territory, that point is still a powerful one for reshaping popular perceptions. Western media would also be expected to giddily amplify it too.
The latest trouble in Indo-US ties, which was explained in detail here and stems from India’s refusal to subordinate itself to the US as its “junior partner” by sanctioning Russia, might then become a thing of the past. American policymakers would struggle to justify perpetuating their pressure campaign against India as its fierce competition with China publicly worsens and they possibly return to the brink of war just like four years ago. Indo-US ties might therefore rapidly improve as Indo-Sino ones deteriorate.
So long as India doesn’t officially change its policy towards Tibet, then Russo-Indo ties will remain strong, though they’d be at risk of worsening just like Sino-Indo ones if Delhi either laid claim to Tibet or recognized it as occupied territory since Moscow would consider that a provocation against Beijing. Since Prime Minister Modi only appears interested in tacitly changing his country’s policy towards that region and Taiwan as part of a psychological tit-for-tat against China, however, there’s nothing to worry about.
In that event, the latest drama in Indo-Sino ties will likely play out mostly in the media as these Asian Great Powers try to win the rest of the Global South over to their respective side, though it also can’t be ruled out that large-scale military drills might be staged on both sides of the border too. Nevertheless, no hot war is expected to break out since that would create opportunities for their corresponding rivals to exploit, plus Russia could mediate in a serious crisis if requested by both of them to do so.
With all these dynamics in mind, the consequences of India tacitly reopening the “Tibet question” would likely be: 1) a sharp split in BRICS and the SCO that each would blame on the other; 2) the Global South being pressured to choose sides; 3) worsened Indo-Sino ties; 4) improved Indo-US ones; and 5) a more important Russian mediating role. Multipolar processes would continue, but their trajectory would radically change, and Indo-Sino tensions would become a globally significant factor in the New Cold War.
Communist China have been accustomed to manufacture external events to distract domestic pressures. Right now CCP's domestic pressure is sky high. CCP cannot afford to make waves along the borders of formerly USSR central Asia, like Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia, North Korea, North Vietnam. Not willing to make waves along the borders with Burma, Laos, and Thailand (for potential land corridors to bypass Malacca Strait). India is about the best candidate to have a beef to fight for, especially many western enterprises withdraw from China to relocate to India and Vietnam. However, this is really the stupidity of CCP. Mao himself decided to withdraw after Sino-India border war because of logistics problem. Chinese side literature claimed as much as 75-80% PLA casualty was due to ground condition and logistics issues. Geography wise, India clearly has the advantage in escalation. China obviously will not relax on Tibet, as Tibet had been viewed by Han Chinese power elites as satellites. Manchurian dynasty had cabinet level minister in Lhasa when India was still a British Colony. Tibetans, of course, argue that they have been an independent country even if they are now weak. Tibet had been forced into satellite status. CCP made a political mistake to officially occupy Tibet in 1959. But realistically there is no way Beijing would loosen grip on Tibet. Before 1949, Tibet had been on good terms with Republic of China, but maintain a low key independence. After all RoC had been trapped in a series of war since its founding in 1911. India's feeling of insecurity is also well justified. IMHO, the best way out is to stick with the ALC and postpone the border conflicts as much as possible. Especially under Xi, China has overreacted multiple times to put itself into mess. This episode with India is no different. Modi, on the other side of the hill, also uses Tibet as a way to distract domestic pressure. As a rising star and millions of people seeing opportunities yet unable to get any real fruit has created some deep headaches for all Indian leaders, not just Modi. IMHO, Modi is among the more capable ones.