Multipolar processes would continue, but their trajectory would radically change, and Indo-Sino tensions would become a globally significant factor in the New Cold War.
Communist China have been accustomed to manufacture external events to distract domestic pressures. Right now CCP's domestic pressure is sky high. CCP cannot afford to make waves along the borders of formerly USSR central Asia, like Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia, North Korea, North Vietnam. Not willing to make waves along the borders with Burma, Laos, and Thailand (for potential land corridors to bypass Malacca Strait). India is about the best candidate to have a beef to fight for, especially many western enterprises withdraw from China to relocate to India and Vietnam. However, this is really the stupidity of CCP. Mao himself decided to withdraw after Sino-India border war because of logistics problem. Chinese side literature claimed as much as 75-80% PLA casualty was due to ground condition and logistics issues. Geography wise, India clearly has the advantage in escalation. China obviously will not relax on Tibet, as Tibet had been viewed by Han Chinese power elites as satellites. Manchurian dynasty had cabinet level minister in Lhasa when India was still a British Colony. Tibetans, of course, argue that they have been an independent country even if they are now weak. Tibet had been forced into satellite status. CCP made a political mistake to officially occupy Tibet in 1959. But realistically there is no way Beijing would loosen grip on Tibet. Before 1949, Tibet had been on good terms with Republic of China, but maintain a low key independence. After all RoC had been trapped in a series of war since its founding in 1911. India's feeling of insecurity is also well justified. IMHO, the best way out is to stick with the ALC and postpone the border conflicts as much as possible. Especially under Xi, China has overreacted multiple times to put itself into mess. This episode with India is no different. Modi, on the other side of the hill, also uses Tibet as a way to distract domestic pressure. As a rising star and millions of people seeing opportunities yet unable to get any real fruit has created some deep headaches for all Indian leaders, not just Modi. IMHO, Modi is among the more capable ones.
Communist China have been accustomed to manufacture external events to distract domestic pressures. Right now CCP's domestic pressure is sky high. CCP cannot afford to make waves along the borders of formerly USSR central Asia, like Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia, North Korea, North Vietnam. Not willing to make waves along the borders with Burma, Laos, and Thailand (for potential land corridors to bypass Malacca Strait). India is about the best candidate to have a beef to fight for, especially many western enterprises withdraw from China to relocate to India and Vietnam. However, this is really the stupidity of CCP. Mao himself decided to withdraw after Sino-India border war because of logistics problem. Chinese side literature claimed as much as 75-80% PLA casualty was due to ground condition and logistics issues. Geography wise, India clearly has the advantage in escalation. China obviously will not relax on Tibet, as Tibet had been viewed by Han Chinese power elites as satellites. Manchurian dynasty had cabinet level minister in Lhasa when India was still a British Colony. Tibetans, of course, argue that they have been an independent country even if they are now weak. Tibet had been forced into satellite status. CCP made a political mistake to officially occupy Tibet in 1959. But realistically there is no way Beijing would loosen grip on Tibet. Before 1949, Tibet had been on good terms with Republic of China, but maintain a low key independence. After all RoC had been trapped in a series of war since its founding in 1911. India's feeling of insecurity is also well justified. IMHO, the best way out is to stick with the ALC and postpone the border conflicts as much as possible. Especially under Xi, China has overreacted multiple times to put itself into mess. This episode with India is no different. Modi, on the other side of the hill, also uses Tibet as a way to distract domestic pressure. As a rising star and millions of people seeing opportunities yet unable to get any real fruit has created some deep headaches for all Indian leaders, not just Modi. IMHO, Modi is among the more capable ones.