India’s Top Diplomat Explained Why His Country Is Doubling Down On Ties With Russia

The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Sino-Russo Entente caused by the West’s strategically counterproductive sanctions policy can only be managed by major economies bravely defying them in pursuit of the “greater (geopolitical) good”.

Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar informed those members of the global policymaking elite that attended his country’s prestigious Raisina Dialogue last week why it’s doubled down on ties with Russia over the past two years. Simply put, it’s all about preemptively averting Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China, exactly as I assessed here at a top Russian think tank in summer 2022. Here’s RT’s report about his remarks during that event:

“Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made the comments on Friday at the Raisina Dialogue, India’s main geopolitical gathering in New Delhi. He said Moscow and Beijing had been forging stronger ties since the West ‘closed the doors’ on Russia.

‘On the one hand, you have people who set policies that bring the two together,’ Jaishankar explained. ‘And then you say, ‘Beware of them coming together.’’

Discussing Moscow’s advocacy of multilateralism, Jaishankar said Russia was a power with an ‘enormous tradition of statecraft.’ Therefore, it would never put itself into a single relationship of an ‘overwhelming nature,’ he added. He said Russia was turning towards non-Western parts of the world, and it ‘makes sense’ for countries to give it ‘multiple options.’

‘If we railroad Russia to a single option, then you’re making it a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Other countries, especially in Asia, need to engage Russia,’ Jaishankar said, adding that this was ‘certainly in the Indian national interest but it is also in the global interest.’

The minister was responding to the question of whether India sees the relationship between China and Russia as a sustainable and equitable one.”

The first point that stands out is his tacit critique of Western sanctions, which were responsible for the comprehensive expansion of Russian-Chinese relations since 2022 to the point that those two can now be described as having formed a Sino-Russo Entente. This resulted in a self-fulfilling prophecy, albeit an imperfect one, since India’s subsequent prioritization of relations with Russia enabled Moscow to maintain its Sino-Indo balancing act that readers can learn more about here.

The gist is that Russia relies on India to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China, but this balancing act would be maximally effective if there were additional Asian countries to complement Delhi’s role, ergo the next point that EAM Jaishankar made. He urged fellow countries on the continent to follow his own’s lead, which can be interpreted as a wink to Japan, widely considered to be India’s top partner in the East.

Prior to the special operation, Russian-Japanese relations were impressively stable despite negotiations on a peace treaty for ending World War II having stalled after the late Shinzo Abe left office. They then deteriorated in parallel with Russia’s Western relations upon Japan following its allies’ lead in imposing sanctions, though Tokyo still retains some level of energy cooperation with Moscow. In the event that relations improve, Japan could complement India’s role and more effectively help Russia balance China.

Even if they don’t, as many experts unfortunately expect, then that doesn’t mean that Russia would then inevitably become China’s “junior partner”. EAM Jaishankar poignantly reminded everyone that its “enormous tradition of statecraft” wouldn’t allow its diplomats to let that scenario irresponsibly unfold. Relations with India are already sufficient enough of a safeguard, but without additional parties complementing Delhi’s role, Beijing would end up purchasing the lion’s share of Moscow’s resources.

This would turbocharge China’s superpower trajectory at the moment when the US’ unipolar hegemony is fading, thus risking a return to the Sino-US bi-multipolar system that characterized the pre-special operation era as those two negotiate a “new normal” for managing their relations. EAM Jaishankar warned at a separate event last week about the threat of “Great Power collaboration”, which he said is much worse than the “Great Power competition” that he championed last month vis-à-vis China.

He couldn’t come out and directly say it due to his status as India’s top diplomat, but this is certainly an allusion to the scenario of China and the US dividing the world into “spheres of influence”, which could be averted by accelerating tri-multipolarity processes of the sort explained in the preceding hyperlink. India’s role is indispensable to these processes since it was the rapid rise of this globally significant South Asian civilization-state over the past two years that broke the bi-multipolar system.

Nevertheless, this trend could still theoretically be offset if China remains the largest market of Russian resources as a whole by far since that could turbocharge China’s superpower trajectory to the detriment of everyone else per the Neo-Realist paradigm of International Relations. India can’t realistically consume the same level of resources as China can, but Japan and other Asian countries could make up the difference if they scale their imports from Russia, though this requires Tokyo lifting its sanctions.

EAM Jaishankar explained earlier in the month while speaking at an event with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that India envisages having the largest number of options available at all times in reference to why it purchases Russian oil, remarking that this policy deserves praise, not derision. Similarly, his latest remarks are aimed at replicating this policy with respect to Russia, which necessitates other major economies to following suit for the implied purpose of enhancing Moscow’s balancing act.

The failure to do so won’t lead to Russia becoming China’s “junior partner”, but it could turbocharge China’s superpower trajectory to the detriment of everyone else, especially those of its neighbors who are embroiled in fierce maritime disputes with the People’s Republic. The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Sino-Russo Entente caused by the West’s strategically counterproductive sanctions policy can only be managed by major economies bravely defying them in pursuit of the “greater (geopolitical) good”.

India is proudly leading the way in this respect and hopes that others will take EAM Jaishankar’s hint by emulating its pragmatic approach. The more resources that Russia sells to China due to an absence of interested partners brought about by US pressure, the faster that this will fuel China’s superpower rise, the outcome of which works against those same countries’ geopolitical interests. They haven’t yet realized it, but India is far ahead of the curve, and it knows how to most effectively decelerate this trend.