One way or another, whichever decision it makes will be zero-sum. Indonesia will either risk creating the pretext for China to potentially react through economic means to newfound AUKUS-led regional security threats “passively facilitated” by that archipelago or it’ll literally place itself in the military crosshairs of that anti-Chinese alliance’s contingency planning.
Given China's overwhelming military advantage in the West Pacific, I'm not sure that transiting Indonesia OR Australian bases matter much. China's DF-26D, for example, is designed to sink an aircraft carrier moored in Darwin Port, and it's one of a vast suite of missiles, all of which are a generation ahead of their American counterparts.
Yes...... the machinations of the declining but still mighty unipolar hegemon, as well as the capacity of its warmonger elite to take potentially nuclear or genocidal risk, must not be underestimated. Indonesia ought to seek alliance with India and or China, or at least discuss these risks with these countries....
Given China's overwhelming military advantage in the West Pacific, I'm not sure that transiting Indonesia OR Australian bases matter much. China's DF-26D, for example, is designed to sink an aircraft carrier moored in Darwin Port, and it's one of a vast suite of missiles, all of which are a generation ahead of their American counterparts.
Yes...... the machinations of the declining but still mighty unipolar hegemon, as well as the capacity of its warmonger elite to take potentially nuclear or genocidal risk, must not be underestimated. Indonesia ought to seek alliance with India and or China, or at least discuss these risks with these countries....