Andrew, you're a great reporter and analyst but you're way off on this one. There is absolutely no guarantee that most of these new citizens would vote Democrat. Trump got a greater share of the Hispanic vote than any Republican since George W. Bush, and recent polls show Trump LEADING Biden with Hispanic voters, albeit a huge chunk of them are undecided or won't vote, just like everybody else.

Here's a link to a story about a recent USA Today/Suffolk poll, in which Trump leads Biden 39-34: https://www.abc15.com/news/state/democrats-shouldnt-count-on-the-hispanic-vote-in-2024

Add in the fact that over 20% of Black men say they would vote for Trump over Biden, and it is clear that Democrats have lost, and are losing more by the day, the level of support they previously received from these ethnic groups.

Lots of Democrat cheerleaders are saying that demography is destiny, but they are just smoking hopium.

Expand full comment

Doubtful they're thinking so far ahead. If Democrats wanted more votes for this election, they'd (1) accelerate the backlog of naturalization applications, and (2) actually do something to improve the lives of working people who can vote but do not because they feel neither party is responsive. Sending checks in the mail works better than most would admit, as we found out during Covid, I would anticipate that, when the time is right.

The Mexican government is under pressure here for other reasons. As for Congress, US domestic business wants guest workers to be low cost. The precarious position of someone in the country without paperwork forces them to accept lower wages, which thereby anchors the bottom end of the worker pool and keeps the average workers on the whole too insecure to attempt to unionize.

In fact many working and middle class USians, especially right of center, do see immigation as a "kitchen table" issue . That is, one inevitably linked to the supply and demand of labor, and thus their own future income. A move like this would not necessarily help the Biden team at all.

Expand full comment