Arms races are always a bonanza for the military-industrial complex, which exerts outsized influence over US policymaking, but there might be more to this one than just pecuniary benefits.
We can only hope wiser minds in Japan and the Philippines take note of Ukraine's experience of being a US 'supported' proxy. All the 'support' goes to US MIC and all the catastrophe goes to the proxy..
Phillippine-China arm-race in the Southern China Sea has a long way to reach the boiling stage. The more arms the USA gives to Phillippine, the more missiles and ships China would deploy to that area. People know PLAN has a rising ship count. However, ships have to go through drills, maybe even some low-intensity combat to become a navy. Japan MAY buy some USA weapons, the orders for F-35 have been placed. However, given the performance of the US weapons in the Ukraine war, Japan should aim to develop MIC domestically. Japan has never given up its own domestic MIC despite US pressures over the years. China's anti-Japan rhetoric has reached new heights, and Japanese people have a deep distaste against the behavior of Chinese tourists and immigrants. Therefore, rearmament is getting easier and easier politically in Japan. In a sense, China has made a mistake in provoking Japan similar to the way USA has made a mistake in provoking Russia. China has driven Japan deeper into the USA network. Iran did not make similar mistakes.
If Japan continues its policies of overspending to stimulate the economy, some of the money could have been directed to nationwide defense works going underground as the construction business has been one of the dominant factors in Japanese politics, political contributions and bribery cases involving construction companies are common.
Good Question. I have not thought through this aspect. After NATO expansion, multiple countries have been occupied and controlled by USSR (and Russia inherits that burden). Only Germany was split and partially occupied by USSR. Russian soldiers retaliation against German civilians were harsh, but probably not as bad as how German soldiers frequently wiped out the whole village. So some Germans have deep hatred against Russians, and I think the Russians resent Germans even more.
Poland has been split by Russians and Germans three times in history, so they should hate both equally. But the Poles, sharing some Slav blood, has always been more against Russia, precisely because they are kind of like fighting cousins. The downfall of Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth has more to do with Russia than any other nation. Looking at the map on the wiki page, you can see why Poland and Kievan Rus may have some very deep connections. I need someone who knows Russian history to correct me here.
USA, UK, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, and Sweden to some extent, all have had wars and territorial ambitions against Russians. Turkey and Iran must remain on good terms with Russia and bury the hatches for mutual benefits, but the others all have some empirial thoughts, maybe not Sweden.
Modern China-Japan and Taiwan-Japan relationships are all keyed on WW2. Japanese army killed many Chinese civilians and soldiers due to China's military technology being one full generation behind (from training, tactics, organization, to weapons). Japanese business also looted from China raw materials and all things iron, including pots and agricultural tools in villages. For mutual benefits, the two should have buried the hatches and unite Korea and Taiwan to build a very prosperous East Asia.
However, Chinese Commnuist Party (CCP) gained the upper hands over the Republic of China (the Nationalists) in the minds of Chinese people by claiming the CCP was the real nationalists while Nationalist government was a sellout to Japan. The truth is the opposite. PLA fought few battles against Japanese forces except in 1937-1938. Japan's semiofficial WW2 history has few words about CCP/PLA impact to the Japanese army during the war. Now CCP had won the civil war, CCP again claimed they were the real nationalists who shouldered the main burden of the war. Repeated brain-washing does have effects. With the economy going south (literally to Vietnam) in Xi's tenure, Xi played the old Trump card used by CCP which has never failed before -- extreme nationalism. This is really a kind of national stress reliever. Incidents against Japanese businesses in China have risen significantly in the last 10+ years. Such incidents did happen before Xi, but usually, they were quickly suppressed.
In conclusion, past but recent military conflicts existed in both cases, and terrible war crimes had been committed. Note that there is no documented war crime by the Chinese against the Japanese because China was more exhausted than Japan was at the end of WW2.
How is China provoking Japan? It looks to me that Japan is as willing to cross China's red line with Taiwan like the US, if not more, since Japan controlled Taiwan for about 50 years or so, in the first half of the xxth century...
Japan has stayed behind USA and exercised its influence in Taiwan under the surface. About two years ago, USA approved Japan to transfer technology of submarines with AIP ablity to Taiwan. Japan's Marine had been reactivated about 3 years ago. Claimiing to be a brigade but it seems they have recruiting problems. If you look at pure military moves, there are few tto be seen. Although the Senkaku Islands had always been a trouble spot, but not worthy of military action by all 3 involved parties.
A potential issue for the military action to flare up is a big gas field (roughly translated as Spring Morning field) which is roughly at the center of the triangle of Shanghai, Naha, and Sennkaku. Consider this fact, then Senkaku ownership plays a role.
The provokings I talked about are mainly inside China and inside Japan. Inside Japan mostly by Chinese tourists and immigrants. Inside China by boycotting Japanese products, damaging Japanese goods and cars, government supporting labor union to strike (only possibe for unions in Japanese factories). Then you ask why Chinese labor flock to Japanese factories ? Because they offer the best pay, working environment, and severance pay. Frequently better than Korean or American shops. Chinese TV and theaters are full of WW2 movies (usually unrealistic). Now if you were a Japanese manager statoined in China. Once you see what is actually happening in China and that sales in China is going off a cliff, would you accept the Board to move out of China?
As for the arm race between China and Japan, it has been going on for multiple decades. I don't see any prospect of slowing down. However, so far both sides have maintained disciplines, for both air and sea, unlike the American spyplanes and warships.
"... the US still seems hellbent on rolling the dice..."
In the world they've 'created', I don't believe they have a choice; they've left themselves no choice.
It's Zelenksky's Kursk gambit on a huge scale.
That's one way of putting, quite a good metaphor.
We can only hope wiser minds in Japan and the Philippines take note of Ukraine's experience of being a US 'supported' proxy. All the 'support' goes to US MIC and all the catastrophe goes to the proxy..
They see all that sweet western cash flooding the country, the fawning press coverage, and they want them a piece a that.
The Japanese and Filipino elites are tied to the US so inextricably that they'll walk the plank for us.
In the PI, there is at least the Duterte-centered opposition. But in Japan, the LDP is basically unchallenged.
Phillippine-China arm-race in the Southern China Sea has a long way to reach the boiling stage. The more arms the USA gives to Phillippine, the more missiles and ships China would deploy to that area. People know PLAN has a rising ship count. However, ships have to go through drills, maybe even some low-intensity combat to become a navy. Japan MAY buy some USA weapons, the orders for F-35 have been placed. However, given the performance of the US weapons in the Ukraine war, Japan should aim to develop MIC domestically. Japan has never given up its own domestic MIC despite US pressures over the years. China's anti-Japan rhetoric has reached new heights, and Japanese people have a deep distaste against the behavior of Chinese tourists and immigrants. Therefore, rearmament is getting easier and easier politically in Japan. In a sense, China has made a mistake in provoking Japan similar to the way USA has made a mistake in provoking Russia. China has driven Japan deeper into the USA network. Iran did not make similar mistakes.
If Japan continues its policies of overspending to stimulate the economy, some of the money could have been directed to nationwide defense works going underground as the construction business has been one of the dominant factors in Japanese politics, political contributions and bribery cases involving construction companies are common.
How china and japan issue is comparable to what NATO/ EU did and does to Russia?
Good Question. I have not thought through this aspect. After NATO expansion, multiple countries have been occupied and controlled by USSR (and Russia inherits that burden). Only Germany was split and partially occupied by USSR. Russian soldiers retaliation against German civilians were harsh, but probably not as bad as how German soldiers frequently wiped out the whole village. So some Germans have deep hatred against Russians, and I think the Russians resent Germans even more.
Poland has been split by Russians and Germans three times in history, so they should hate both equally. But the Poles, sharing some Slav blood, has always been more against Russia, precisely because they are kind of like fighting cousins. The downfall of Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth has more to do with Russia than any other nation. Looking at the map on the wiki page, you can see why Poland and Kievan Rus may have some very deep connections. I need someone who knows Russian history to correct me here.
USA, UK, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, and Sweden to some extent, all have had wars and territorial ambitions against Russians. Turkey and Iran must remain on good terms with Russia and bury the hatches for mutual benefits, but the others all have some empirial thoughts, maybe not Sweden.
Modern China-Japan and Taiwan-Japan relationships are all keyed on WW2. Japanese army killed many Chinese civilians and soldiers due to China's military technology being one full generation behind (from training, tactics, organization, to weapons). Japanese business also looted from China raw materials and all things iron, including pots and agricultural tools in villages. For mutual benefits, the two should have buried the hatches and unite Korea and Taiwan to build a very prosperous East Asia.
However, Chinese Commnuist Party (CCP) gained the upper hands over the Republic of China (the Nationalists) in the minds of Chinese people by claiming the CCP was the real nationalists while Nationalist government was a sellout to Japan. The truth is the opposite. PLA fought few battles against Japanese forces except in 1937-1938. Japan's semiofficial WW2 history has few words about CCP/PLA impact to the Japanese army during the war. Now CCP had won the civil war, CCP again claimed they were the real nationalists who shouldered the main burden of the war. Repeated brain-washing does have effects. With the economy going south (literally to Vietnam) in Xi's tenure, Xi played the old Trump card used by CCP which has never failed before -- extreme nationalism. This is really a kind of national stress reliever. Incidents against Japanese businesses in China have risen significantly in the last 10+ years. Such incidents did happen before Xi, but usually, they were quickly suppressed.
In conclusion, past but recent military conflicts existed in both cases, and terrible war crimes had been committed. Note that there is no documented war crime by the Chinese against the Japanese because China was more exhausted than Japan was at the end of WW2.
How is China provoking Japan? It looks to me that Japan is as willing to cross China's red line with Taiwan like the US, if not more, since Japan controlled Taiwan for about 50 years or so, in the first half of the xxth century...
Japan has stayed behind USA and exercised its influence in Taiwan under the surface. About two years ago, USA approved Japan to transfer technology of submarines with AIP ablity to Taiwan. Japan's Marine had been reactivated about 3 years ago. Claimiing to be a brigade but it seems they have recruiting problems. If you look at pure military moves, there are few tto be seen. Although the Senkaku Islands had always been a trouble spot, but not worthy of military action by all 3 involved parties.
A potential issue for the military action to flare up is a big gas field (roughly translated as Spring Morning field) which is roughly at the center of the triangle of Shanghai, Naha, and Sennkaku. Consider this fact, then Senkaku ownership plays a role.
The provokings I talked about are mainly inside China and inside Japan. Inside Japan mostly by Chinese tourists and immigrants. Inside China by boycotting Japanese products, damaging Japanese goods and cars, government supporting labor union to strike (only possibe for unions in Japanese factories). Then you ask why Chinese labor flock to Japanese factories ? Because they offer the best pay, working environment, and severance pay. Frequently better than Korean or American shops. Chinese TV and theaters are full of WW2 movies (usually unrealistic). Now if you were a Japanese manager statoined in China. Once you see what is actually happening in China and that sales in China is going off a cliff, would you accept the Board to move out of China?
As for the arm race between China and Japan, it has been going on for multiple decades. I don't see any prospect of slowing down. However, so far both sides have maintained disciplines, for both air and sea, unlike the American spyplanes and warships.