Intuitively Russia's security concern in this area have 3 major goals: (1) avoid a war in back yard of Russia (2) prevent western military alliance dipping toes into this area, (3) protect Russia's internal communication lines into Siberia and Far East. I wonder if Russia can change its role from a God-Father like figure to a big-brother-like figure by proactively promoting the integration and cooperation in this area. After all, Russia still has a large central Asia area which interacts with these five countries. If roads, rails, airports, or even commerce hubs, gasoline pipelines, logistic support are done by multi-national conglomerates or cooperatives with Russia leading the pack or simply as an equal contributor, that should help to produce detente in this area. Of course, Russia should not try to give loans which would not be paid back or anything similar, just running the cooperation as a business with a low expectation on profit, but no need as a loss-leader kind of business.
There's another player in this drama that you haven't mentioned: China. China is definitely interested in developing the entire region and has the financial clout to do so, which Turkiye would be stretched to compete with, given the current sad state of their economy.
Another point worth mentioning is that each of these countries have significant minorities of each other's cultural group within their own borders. This extends to the Pashtun people as well, who have a major presence in Tajikistan and vice versa. This complicates the push to establish clear national identities.
Speaking of the Tajik/Iran connection, I don't think it sits well with Iran that Tajikistan banned the hijab, forced men to cut their beards, and goes on endlessly about 'foreign influences' - a veiled reference to Islamism (pardon the pun) which they seem determined to move away from on the road to a more secular state.
I look to popular culture for hints at what to expect, and I note that several high value patriotic music videos have appeared on YT over the last few years. Here are a few examples:
Another factor that weighs in the balancing act is Russia's courting of the Taliban, which could be a prelude to full recognition, despite Lavrov's pronouncements to the contrary. This could partly be a message to Tajikistan. Russia provides joint security on their border with Afghanistan, and they definitely don't want to risk losing that.
Another point to take account of: While Erdogan fancies himself as uniting the Islamic world, I think most Muslims see through that. He's basically an opportunist, and while Erdogan talks, Iran acts. Standing up to Israel has gained Iran much respect among both Sunni and Shia people across the Muslim world. Hard for NATO satrap Turkiye to match that.
I started looking at Central Asia many years ago as a mining investor. Remember when everyone was upset with Hillary for brokering the Uranium One deal? Americans were annoyed because that put about 20% of American uranium production in Russian hands, but that wasn't the real target. Uranium One's position in Kazakhstan was the real prize. I actually owned shares in U1 but sold before the deal went through. Another one that got away...lol.
Obviously it's the resources that are the main prize here, so the question is: who is best situated to develop them? Russia, China or the USA? None of these countries have the wherewithal to do it on their own with the possible exception of Turkmenistan. Much of what they have was inherited from the USSR though, so question there is (and I haven't really looked into it) have they maintained their industry, or let it languish like Venezuela? The absurdity that is Ashgabat kind of hints at the latter. Basically all Ashgabat is good for is a tourist attraction, like Astana, but they haven't even taken advantage of that. Try and visit the country, you'll see what I mean. Probably easier to visit N. Korea.
It was a good analysis overall. This is one area that is very hard to get a handle on since so many forces are in play. I love the music of the area though, especially the Pashtun tappay. So different from anything I've heard elsewhere, and I follow a lot of international musicians.
Intuitively Russia's security concern in this area have 3 major goals: (1) avoid a war in back yard of Russia (2) prevent western military alliance dipping toes into this area, (3) protect Russia's internal communication lines into Siberia and Far East. I wonder if Russia can change its role from a God-Father like figure to a big-brother-like figure by proactively promoting the integration and cooperation in this area. After all, Russia still has a large central Asia area which interacts with these five countries. If roads, rails, airports, or even commerce hubs, gasoline pipelines, logistic support are done by multi-national conglomerates or cooperatives with Russia leading the pack or simply as an equal contributor, that should help to produce detente in this area. Of course, Russia should not try to give loans which would not be paid back or anything similar, just running the cooperation as a business with a low expectation on profit, but no need as a loss-leader kind of business.
There's another player in this drama that you haven't mentioned: China. China is definitely interested in developing the entire region and has the financial clout to do so, which Turkiye would be stretched to compete with, given the current sad state of their economy.
Another point worth mentioning is that each of these countries have significant minorities of each other's cultural group within their own borders. This extends to the Pashtun people as well, who have a major presence in Tajikistan and vice versa. This complicates the push to establish clear national identities.
Speaking of the Tajik/Iran connection, I don't think it sits well with Iran that Tajikistan banned the hijab, forced men to cut their beards, and goes on endlessly about 'foreign influences' - a veiled reference to Islamism (pardon the pun) which they seem determined to move away from on the road to a more secular state.
I look to popular culture for hints at what to expect, and I note that several high value patriotic music videos have appeared on YT over the last few years. Here are a few examples:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRx6EKCwHlw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FlBCJbb2oo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWV-JUNPK1Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoEweBU0ABY
Pretty slick, eh? Come to Turkmenistan and help us pick cotton....lol.
On a more serious note, here is Afghan singer Seeta Qasemie singing the opening number at a Tajik national holiday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfdTy7KK6PM
(note the heavy security and Seeta's huge popularity with young women and men.)
Why is this important? Check out the original production. They really wanted to send a message I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyB3JziEH40
Another factor that weighs in the balancing act is Russia's courting of the Taliban, which could be a prelude to full recognition, despite Lavrov's pronouncements to the contrary. This could partly be a message to Tajikistan. Russia provides joint security on their border with Afghanistan, and they definitely don't want to risk losing that.
Another point to take account of: While Erdogan fancies himself as uniting the Islamic world, I think most Muslims see through that. He's basically an opportunist, and while Erdogan talks, Iran acts. Standing up to Israel has gained Iran much respect among both Sunni and Shia people across the Muslim world. Hard for NATO satrap Turkiye to match that.
I started looking at Central Asia many years ago as a mining investor. Remember when everyone was upset with Hillary for brokering the Uranium One deal? Americans were annoyed because that put about 20% of American uranium production in Russian hands, but that wasn't the real target. Uranium One's position in Kazakhstan was the real prize. I actually owned shares in U1 but sold before the deal went through. Another one that got away...lol.
Obviously it's the resources that are the main prize here, so the question is: who is best situated to develop them? Russia, China or the USA? None of these countries have the wherewithal to do it on their own with the possible exception of Turkmenistan. Much of what they have was inherited from the USSR though, so question there is (and I haven't really looked into it) have they maintained their industry, or let it languish like Venezuela? The absurdity that is Ashgabat kind of hints at the latter. Basically all Ashgabat is good for is a tourist attraction, like Astana, but they haven't even taken advantage of that. Try and visit the country, you'll see what I mean. Probably easier to visit N. Korea.
It was a good analysis overall. This is one area that is very hard to get a handle on since so many forces are in play. I love the music of the area though, especially the Pashtun tappay. So different from anything I've heard elsewhere, and I follow a lot of international musicians.