Zelensky knows that he won’t reconquer his country’s lost territory no matter what he says for the purpose of keeping morale high, hence the need to informally explore a compromise for ending the conflict in the most politically “face-saving” way possible.
"Zelensky Might Agree To Territorial Compromises"..
You write about Zelensky like future of Ukraine would depend on the clown... There is something not right about it.. There is no greater power of interests in Ukraine or above in that matter, then Zelensky ? Come on brother, he is just a f. clown...
"...China doesn’t support his [Zelensky's] maximalist objectives in this conflict, but it’s also not in favor of Russia’s either..."
Which part of the Ukraine's 1) demilitarisation, 2) denazification or 3) neutrality is it that the Chinese apparently object to, or 'aren't in favour of'?
"...the Kremlin would likely also want other aspects of its national security interests to be ensured as well such as demilitarization and the like."
What do you mean by "...and the like." It sounds as if you might be trying to suggest Russia is trying to slip some American-type deception under the wire.
Are you trying to suggest some part of the Russian Federation, from Kherson to Magadan, might have cause to feel insecure about their status as part of their nation? Do you fear someone might suggest some parts of the Russian Federation, perhaps some parts the Chinese have historically suggested they have some claim to, might be shaken loose of the Federation, and the most recently adopted territorial parts might be the best place to begin the shaking? Wouldn't that be something like threatening the existence of the Russian Federation? After all, if the Chinese can shake off little bits here and there, why shouldn't the Americans have been successful in shaking it apart, like they did the former Yugoslavia? Didn't some eminent Russian economists themselves used to say, in the middle to the end of the nineties, 'Everyone would be better off that way...'? A slippery slope?
1. China hasn't supported nor opposed Russia, it's neutral, which shouldn't be spun as favoring Russia. It's obviously better than being against Russia, but it's not the same.
2. Neutrality, denazification (however it's defined by Russia, it was never clear, and whatever form it ultimately takes, if any), etc.
3. No, I'm not suggesting that any area inside Russia should fear being part of it, how did you arrive at that conclusion from what I wrote?
4. Again, no, I haven't suggested that at all and I genuinely have no idea how you got that idea.
5. Once more, no, I'm not implying any impending Chinese claims against Russia.
6. I don't understand why you continue elaborating on this tangent when I never suggested it.
7. Sure, there were some in Russia in the 90s who considered selling certain territories (Karelia, Kurils), but again, what does that have to do with what I wrote?
It seems to me like my phrase "and the like", in reference to Russia's other national security interests, rubbed you the wrong way for some reason and pushed you to ask a series of questions based off of a wrong understanding of what I wrote.
This notion that China and Russia are "allies" is false, full stop. They strategically cooperate to accelerate multipolar processes but they won't sacrifice any of their interests as their leaderships understand them to be for the sake of the other or the so-called "greater good".
From February-August 2022, I was awaiting payment (which continued piling up) from one of my Chinese partners, who made every excuse in the book imaginable to avoid continuing to send them to my by-then-sanctioned Sber account instead of just saying that they're voluntarily complying with those Western restrictions.
The tab grew to around $10k if my memory serves me right and I really needed access to those funds during that time, yet I was deprived of them because of their decision that they weren't forthcoming about. I'd have appreciated if they just told me straight-up what was going on instead of giving me the run around for half a year.
I ultimately received the funds through another channel, but my personal experience from the inside completely debunks all this fake Alt-Media hype about those two being "allies". My partner, by the way, is state-owned and not a private company so that says all that's needed about there being very real "limits" to the "no-limits partnership".
We know now that Russia and China still continue trade in arms (imported by China from Russia), resources, tech, and other things, but for that first half-year that the latest phase of this conflict raged, pretty much anything other than state-to-state sales were greatly curbed, and to this day they still won't do business with Sber.
In fact, they told me the other month that the channel that they suggested (a non-Russian and non-sanctioned Western bank) isn't viable anymore, with the innuendo being that they're also voluntarily eschewing business with them for clients inside of Russia due to secondary sanctions fears.
I also know from others who I've spoken to here and various reports that I've read from credible sources since then that this isn't exclusive to me, but is a major problem. I couldn't even open up a Bank of China account in Moscow since they require a contract with a Chinese partner but I'm a freelancer.
What I'm saying is that all those who impressed upon you the notion that Russia and China are "allies" are either just making it up because it conforms with their wishful thinking or know the truth but are deliberately deceiving you all for clout, to push an ideology, and/or to solicit donations.
If China TRULY supported Russia's goals, there's no way that state-owned companies would voluntarily comply with the US' illegal sanctions, even against regular Russia-based folks like me with just several thousand dollars' worth of transactions.
That incident opened my eyes to the reality of how the world works and that some things that I took for granted about it aren't true, or at least aren't as accurate as I thought. I don't care if anyone claims that I'm "lying", just to preempt unfriendly challenges to what I wrote, I swear on God's Holy Name that it's true.
Folks can either take it or leave it, I don't care either way, but I'm taking the time to clarify specifically for you because I respect and don't know why you went on that multi-question tangent over something so benign that I wrote which I couldn't have hitherto expected would set someone off like that.
Yes, I find it enlightening as well, and thank you for your candour.
"...that multi-question tangent..."
It's just the way I think. I'm sorry if you found it offensive, it certainly wasn't intended to be.
Perhaps I should be more careful about hitting 'Send' (or 'Enter', or whatever it is). I don't regret doing so, though. In fact, I'm rather pleased with the way it's turned out.
I've never really subscribed to this idea, as it seems you assume I have.
This is one of my worries: the Chinese might suddenly (in the Chinese sense of 'suddenly', i.e. carefully and slowly) come to the conclusion they can serve their own interest far more efficaciously than most imagine in ways that DO NOT necessarily serve Russia's.
I think that's why you use of the phrase, "....and the like." made me think, as it did.
I was speaking more generally to those who might read this and hold that view, but in any case, my experience that I shared was one of the few moments in my life thus far where I had an epiphany about how things really work.
One of the other main ones was when Russia did everything it could to get Syria to agree to the new constitution that Russian experts wrote for it, which included a lot of clauses that were unacceptable to Damascus:
I also knew from a close Syrian friend here whose father was a high-level diplomat at the Embassy in Moscow that they were very upset about this, felt uncomfortable that Russia shared it with them at the same time as they shared it with the "opposition" (thus equating the two), and weren't going to agree.
I was ruthlessly attacked by "Non-Syrian Pro-Syrians" from the Alt-Media Community, yet we all ultimately see that I was right: the clauses were too unacceptable for Damascus to agree to, and over 7 years later, not a single part of it has been implemented.
What I learned was that Russia vis-a-vis Syria, like China vis-a-vis Russia, has its own national interests that are sometimes at variance with its so-called "ally's" and which it'll still seek to "gently" advance in spite of them being at the other's expense.
Yes, I don't envy you here. I admire your courage.
Recently, I've felt inclined to shy away from what you face and have unpublished a lot of stuff on Substack which might make me vulnerable, as you've been facing down for so many years now; not that I should expect to attract the same calibre of attention, as you've worked so hard for so many years to enjoy.
Andrew clearly sees the relationship between Russia and China. I also heard (from Chinese side) that Russians really don't like Chinese (at the people to people level) I would claim that is not the fault of Russian people. If you talk to tourism related stores in SK, Japan, Taiwan, and HK, you will hear almost monotonously how they don't like tourists from China.
The way I see it, China needs Russia far more than Russia needing China. If CCP wants to survive longer, they had better match up to Russian needs. Alternatively, if we don't want CCP the pest continue as a parasite in China, Russia's attitude is as critical as US. After all, CCP was a USSR creation. While Mr. Putin can lament how communism era is the most terrible part of the modern Russian history, Chinese people dare not say anything close in public.
The world's stability depends on Russia, at least for another 10 years. I know that is a lot to ask from a single country, but I don't see US, China, India, Japan, or EU can pick up that slack.
everyone knows the solution is an agreement with Russia
Appreciate your insight on how a negotiated settlement could be pursued. Something I have taken a keen interest.
The "sweetener" which Ukraine desperately needs is help with the electrical grid, which substation components are Russian.
This winter electricity is a necessity which Russia can help with more than everybody else combined.
This needs to be arranged in September, and hurt will certainly be felt, anyway.
"Zelensky Might Agree To Territorial Compromises"..
You write about Zelensky like future of Ukraine would depend on the clown... There is something not right about it.. There is no greater power of interests in Ukraine or above in that matter, then Zelensky ? Come on brother, he is just a f. clown...
"...China doesn’t support his [Zelensky's] maximalist objectives in this conflict, but it’s also not in favor of Russia’s either..."
Which part of the Ukraine's 1) demilitarisation, 2) denazification or 3) neutrality is it that the Chinese apparently object to, or 'aren't in favour of'?
"...the Kremlin would likely also want other aspects of its national security interests to be ensured as well such as demilitarization and the like."
What do you mean by "...and the like." It sounds as if you might be trying to suggest Russia is trying to slip some American-type deception under the wire.
Are you trying to suggest some part of the Russian Federation, from Kherson to Magadan, might have cause to feel insecure about their status as part of their nation? Do you fear someone might suggest some parts of the Russian Federation, perhaps some parts the Chinese have historically suggested they have some claim to, might be shaken loose of the Federation, and the most recently adopted territorial parts might be the best place to begin the shaking? Wouldn't that be something like threatening the existence of the Russian Federation? After all, if the Chinese can shake off little bits here and there, why shouldn't the Americans have been successful in shaking it apart, like they did the former Yugoslavia? Didn't some eminent Russian economists themselves used to say, in the middle to the end of the nineties, 'Everyone would be better off that way...'? A slippery slope?
1. China hasn't supported nor opposed Russia, it's neutral, which shouldn't be spun as favoring Russia. It's obviously better than being against Russia, but it's not the same.
2. Neutrality, denazification (however it's defined by Russia, it was never clear, and whatever form it ultimately takes, if any), etc.
3. No, I'm not suggesting that any area inside Russia should fear being part of it, how did you arrive at that conclusion from what I wrote?
4. Again, no, I haven't suggested that at all and I genuinely have no idea how you got that idea.
5. Once more, no, I'm not implying any impending Chinese claims against Russia.
6. I don't understand why you continue elaborating on this tangent when I never suggested it.
7. Sure, there were some in Russia in the 90s who considered selling certain territories (Karelia, Kurils), but again, what does that have to do with what I wrote?
It seems to me like my phrase "and the like", in reference to Russia's other national security interests, rubbed you the wrong way for some reason and pushed you to ask a series of questions based off of a wrong understanding of what I wrote.
This notion that China and Russia are "allies" is false, full stop. They strategically cooperate to accelerate multipolar processes but they won't sacrifice any of their interests as their leaderships understand them to be for the sake of the other or the so-called "greater good".
From February-August 2022, I was awaiting payment (which continued piling up) from one of my Chinese partners, who made every excuse in the book imaginable to avoid continuing to send them to my by-then-sanctioned Sber account instead of just saying that they're voluntarily complying with those Western restrictions.
The tab grew to around $10k if my memory serves me right and I really needed access to those funds during that time, yet I was deprived of them because of their decision that they weren't forthcoming about. I'd have appreciated if they just told me straight-up what was going on instead of giving me the run around for half a year.
I ultimately received the funds through another channel, but my personal experience from the inside completely debunks all this fake Alt-Media hype about those two being "allies". My partner, by the way, is state-owned and not a private company so that says all that's needed about there being very real "limits" to the "no-limits partnership".
We know now that Russia and China still continue trade in arms (imported by China from Russia), resources, tech, and other things, but for that first half-year that the latest phase of this conflict raged, pretty much anything other than state-to-state sales were greatly curbed, and to this day they still won't do business with Sber.
In fact, they told me the other month that the channel that they suggested (a non-Russian and non-sanctioned Western bank) isn't viable anymore, with the innuendo being that they're also voluntarily eschewing business with them for clients inside of Russia due to secondary sanctions fears.
I also know from others who I've spoken to here and various reports that I've read from credible sources since then that this isn't exclusive to me, but is a major problem. I couldn't even open up a Bank of China account in Moscow since they require a contract with a Chinese partner but I'm a freelancer.
What I'm saying is that all those who impressed upon you the notion that Russia and China are "allies" are either just making it up because it conforms with their wishful thinking or know the truth but are deliberately deceiving you all for clout, to push an ideology, and/or to solicit donations.
If China TRULY supported Russia's goals, there's no way that state-owned companies would voluntarily comply with the US' illegal sanctions, even against regular Russia-based folks like me with just several thousand dollars' worth of transactions.
That incident opened my eyes to the reality of how the world works and that some things that I took for granted about it aren't true, or at least aren't as accurate as I thought. I don't care if anyone claims that I'm "lying", just to preempt unfriendly challenges to what I wrote, I swear on God's Holy Name that it's true.
Folks can either take it or leave it, I don't care either way, but I'm taking the time to clarify specifically for you because I respect and don't know why you went on that multi-question tangent over something so benign that I wrote which I couldn't have hitherto expected would set someone off like that.
"That incident opened my eyes to the reality..."
Yes, I find it enlightening as well, and thank you for your candour.
"...that multi-question tangent..."
It's just the way I think. I'm sorry if you found it offensive, it certainly wasn't intended to be.
Perhaps I should be more careful about hitting 'Send' (or 'Enter', or whatever it is). I don't regret doing so, though. In fact, I'm rather pleased with the way it's turned out.
I hope you are, or may come to be, too.
"...the notion that Russia and China..."
I've never really subscribed to this idea, as it seems you assume I have.
This is one of my worries: the Chinese might suddenly (in the Chinese sense of 'suddenly', i.e. carefully and slowly) come to the conclusion they can serve their own interest far more efficaciously than most imagine in ways that DO NOT necessarily serve Russia's.
I think that's why you use of the phrase, "....and the like." made me think, as it did.
In any case, I thank you for making me think.
I was speaking more generally to those who might read this and hold that view, but in any case, my experience that I shared was one of the few moments in my life thus far where I had an epiphany about how things really work.
One of the other main ones was when Russia did everything it could to get Syria to agree to the new constitution that Russian experts wrote for it, which included a lot of clauses that were unacceptable to Damascus:
https://21stcenturywire.com/2017/02/03/syria-digging-into-the-details-of-the-russian-written-draft-constitution/
I also knew from a close Syrian friend here whose father was a high-level diplomat at the Embassy in Moscow that they were very upset about this, felt uncomfortable that Russia shared it with them at the same time as they shared it with the "opposition" (thus equating the two), and weren't going to agree.
I was ruthlessly attacked by "Non-Syrian Pro-Syrians" from the Alt-Media Community, yet we all ultimately see that I was right: the clauses were too unacceptable for Damascus to agree to, and over 7 years later, not a single part of it has been implemented.
What I learned was that Russia vis-a-vis Syria, like China vis-a-vis Russia, has its own national interests that are sometimes at variance with its so-called "ally's" and which it'll still seek to "gently" advance in spite of them being at the other's expense.
"I was ruthlessly attacked..."
Yes, I don't envy you here. I admire your courage.
Recently, I've felt inclined to shy away from what you face and have unpublished a lot of stuff on Substack which might make me vulnerable, as you've been facing down for so many years now; not that I should expect to attract the same calibre of attention, as you've worked so hard for so many years to enjoy.
So, please don't feel you're not appreciated.
Andrew clearly sees the relationship between Russia and China. I also heard (from Chinese side) that Russians really don't like Chinese (at the people to people level) I would claim that is not the fault of Russian people. If you talk to tourism related stores in SK, Japan, Taiwan, and HK, you will hear almost monotonously how they don't like tourists from China.
The way I see it, China needs Russia far more than Russia needing China. If CCP wants to survive longer, they had better match up to Russian needs. Alternatively, if we don't want CCP the pest continue as a parasite in China, Russia's attitude is as critical as US. After all, CCP was a USSR creation. While Mr. Putin can lament how communism era is the most terrible part of the modern Russian history, Chinese people dare not say anything close in public.
The world's stability depends on Russia, at least for another 10 years. I know that is a lot to ask from a single country, but I don't see US, China, India, Japan, or EU can pick up that slack.
"It seems to me like my phrase "and the like"[...]"rubbed you the wrong way...."
Yes, it did, but that's not to say it's a bad thing: it made me think.
That IS, after all, why I read your work.
Okay, thanks McDodd, no worries.