Russian diplomats have worked hard to carefully balance between Israel and the Iranian-led Resistance Axis, which is why it’s very disappointing that only a few of their supporters in the Alt-Media Community recognize this, instead being convinced that they’re all a bunch of liars with a transparently anti-Israeli agenda.
I'm also not optimistic about there being a two-state solution, but my point was to raise wider awareness of Russia's position as it objectively exists, not as people want it to be.
Alt-Media is chock-full of literal lies about Russian policy towards this conflict, and they're pushed for clout, ideology, and to solicit donations.
Most people who present Russia's policy about anything in fact actually have almost no academic or professional experience analyzing it.
Most of whatever anyone reads in Alt-Media about Russia is just wishful thinking that conforms to a series of false expectations and perceptions about its policy.
Once you see the pattern, it's impossible to un-see it. I opened my eyes back in 2018, but the process was already starting in January 2017 with the first Astana talks on Syria.
Of course. I do appreciate you describing Russia's actual position. The AMC is too eager to see Russia as the responsible adult opposite the crazy children with nukes, but the reality is that Russia is just another country playing politics and isn't really all that moral of a force in the world either.
The problem with your analysis is that it ignores the elephant in the room, Iran, Israel’s existential enemy. Russia’s relationship with Iran and its support of Iran militarily belies Lavrov’s platitudes. If they really had a balanced approach they would not be holding hands with Iran. So, Andrew, there is much more that needs analysis in this complicated dance among Russia, Iran, and the Zionazi regime in the settler colonialist killing machine euphemistically known as Israel.
I've written extensively about Iran, including Russian-Iranian relations and newfound trouble over the Zangezur Corridor. You can search my archives for the materials since I'm a bit too busy right now to share find and share the relevant pieces.
But in brief, it's not a zero-sum game like you're implying. Israel is also an existential enemy of Iran's (at least its current government's), although not an explicitly stated one. The same logic goes for Russian-Israeli relations vis-a-vis Iran.
It seems like your frame of reference is that Russia is anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, and pro-Palestine, but that's not the case: it's pro-UNSC Resolutions, which is why its stance doesn't perfectly please anyone.
In any case, I'd suggest taking Lavrov's words seriously. He means them, he's not trying to psyche anyone out, etc., there's no "5D chess". Russia really is very serious about ensuring Israel's security as Russia considers it to be.
Ensuring Israel’s security would mean that if war breaks out between Iran and Israel, Russia will intervene with the US and aid Israel against Iran. It is not possible to play both sides here. UN resolutions are not worth the paper they are printed on. History makes that perfectly clear. Russia’s geopolitical interests are linked to the Arab world and Iran, not Israel. I have the greatest respect for Lavrov. Along with Putin and Xi and the Chinese diplomats, they are the only grown-ups in the room and have probably saved us from WW III. I think the Russians have a legalistic diplomatic stance but obviously in practice their behavior belies the words and IMHO rightfully so.
You failed to mention Russia's inevitable Umma Pivot after 2022. It's true that Russia has a track record of leaning towards Israel, still has strong societal tie with israel, and is still taking Israeli interest into account, does not equal it is tangibly pro-israel regarding the current confrontation in the near east. Esp. since Iran is supporting their military operation with arm shipments.
I literally coined the term Ummah Pivot so it's impossible for me to forget a major concept that I introduced into the policymaking discourse through my analytical series at this major Russian think tank (where Lavrov serves as Chairman of the Board):
Iran also isn't waging any military operation against Israel at the moment, and whatever equipment it might have received from Russia in recent months was likely only defensive as I explained here at the time:
As for whether Russia's approach is pro-Israeli, I never wrote, I only wrote that it tends to lean towards Israel as proven by its history of sanctioning Iran but never sanctioning Israel despite the ongoing situation in Gaza.
Russia has also repeatedly reaffirmed Israel's right to exist and to ensure its security, which are indisputably Israeli-friendly policies, but Russia doesn't envisage advancing them in a way that harms other's interests.
From a Resistance Axis standpoint, remembering that these countries and groups are dedicated to Israel's destruction and consider it to be the "Little Satan", Russia's policy is definitely pro-Israeli since it contradicts their explicitly stated goals.
Andrew wrote "Russia has also repeatedly reaffirmed Israel's right to exist and to ensure its security, which are indisputably Israeli-friendly policies, but Russia doesn't envisage advancing them in a way that harms other's interests."
That is the very essence of peaceful coexistence. Although nowadays it seems Israel has never had any intention to stay within its 1948 borders. Had Israel done that (e.g., winning multiple conflicts but withdrawing back into its original borders,) the Middle East situation might have been different. I also see the original European Jews who founded the nation had a fairly different political view and wisdom from the current generation.
Now you're spreading fake news. "Dedicated to Israel's destruction"? Even Hezbollah has stated that it would abide by a ceasefire if Israel got out of Gaza. The Arabs have agreed to many concessions over the decades to establish peace for both Israel and the Palestinians, but the zionist factions inside and outside Israel, like the US neocons, just can't agree to peace on earth. If there's a minor fanatical group that's "dedicated to Israel's destruction," it wouldn't survive long if there was actual dialogue and negotiations instead of genocide and apartheid. Meanwhile, Israeli fascists have openly called for the extermination of the Palestinian people. You should know better.
I have zero-tolerance for people who disrespect me on my page. I don't spread fake news, I debunk it, and you're the one acting as a disinformation agent here.
Hezbollah doesn't believe in a two-state solution that indefinitely perpetuates Israel's existence as it's currently organized. They want to liberate Palestine "from the river to the sea".
Post-Revolution Iran has the exact same approach as well, and does Hamas, which also doesn't recognize Israel's legitimate right to exist in its current form.
I have no idea why you'd humiliate yourself by spewing such easily debunkable fake news, but in my experience, people like you are usually triggered by something else that I've written in the past.
They then seethe in silence until they finally muster up the courage to confront me. Just this summer, two trolls on X revealed that they've been seething for 5 and 6 years so it's not anything new.
I'm all for a respectful exchange of contrarian views, in fact, I encourage it. But what I don't accept is ad hominem attacks against me on my page such as accusing me of "spreading fake news".
I don't know who you're used to interacting with, but they must not have the self-respect that I do if they're tolerating this. Do it again and you'll be banned. There won't be a second warning.
In its current form, Israel is an Apartheid State, so Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah not recognizing its legitimacy shouldn't be a surprise - they are on the high moral ground. Remember South Africa being boycotted? Also KSA doesn't "recognize" Israel and has no formal relations with it, in its present form. It is not its mere existence that is denied, but its existence as an Apartheid state.
I really appreciate your analyses and I think that you are a very clear eyed one among the many, but you are missing this very important point. Palestinians wouldn't mind living in Israel and having same rights as the Jews. But if you look into Israel's Basic Law (the Israelis strenuously avoided to have a Constitution (learned from the Brits as well as from the US)), only the Jews are full citizens...
As such, you erroneously label Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc as wanting to erase Israel and perpetuate this trope which serves Israel's asspiration of getting more territory - which will never give them strategic depth.
Banned? That's a joke. I only read you occasionally to see what nonsense you're spewing. You're not on the top of my reading list. and now you're off it altogether. You'd better watch your words more carefully or you'll lose what little credibility you have. "In its current form" is an improvement -- keep fixing your errors.
I won't vote for either Harris or Trump because they both back the genocidal thing called Israel. How ironic I'm called a Putin puppet when I wouldn't vote for him for the exact same reason.
Russia's position on Israel is flawed and untenable. There can be no two-state solution. There never could have been, not with Zionism as the driving Israeli ideology, as recent Israeli actions make plain. Their goal is the ethnic cleansing of all of the territory they can conquer and hold, and they cannot possibly succeed.
Eventually American aid to Israel will vanish. What will Russia do then when all of those Russian Zionists want to move back to Russia and advocate for the re-establishment of Israel? I'm sure the Russian government has no idea, but perhaps they should start thinking about it. It's coming, but maybe not when Russia is lucky enough to have an intelligent man like Putin at the helm.
I don't expect the US to ever fully cut Israel off, but if its existence was seriously threatened, then Russia might try to support Israel in some tangible way seeing as how Putin explicitly stated that he considers them to be "a true common family":
Of course, that's just the way that Putin sees it, but if this scenario unfolds after his presidency ends (whenever that might be), then whoever succeeds him might see everything differently but it's impossible to speculate on who they'd be and how they'd think.
Thank you for setting the record straight in this matter. I wonder how many other false memes are doing the rounds. Take for instance the idea that Putin has allowed the West to cross his red lines time and again in the past, without ever reacting. Is this actually true?
Great post which brings a much needed perspective. I also appreciate the facts presented. We often fall for the headlines without actually looking at what is really said or discussed.
One cannot at all agree with the position expressed by S. Lavrov, who fundamentally ignores the colonial, racist and expansionist nature of the Zionist entity. An intolerable attitude on the part of a Russia that is a champion of the right of peoples to freedom and independence, and of international legality which must prevail in all things. One cannot pose as the defender of an entity based on the negation and destruction of the other, without renouncing the moral and virtuous principles to which one claims to subscribe!…
Well, if Lavrov genuinely believes this, I think he's deluded... Russia might feel like being the Best Friend Forever of Israel, but this is clearly not the same the other way round!
Israel survives & is able to bomb and genocide with impunity only because the USA has its back. Full stop, end of story.
Ergo, for the Israelis it is IMPERATIVE that the USA remains as strong and dominant as possible. They know that no one else would be able to replace the USA in that supportive role.
Ergo, any other nation or alliance that contests the US dominance is automatically an enemy of the Israeli establishment.
Ergo, China & Russia are by default Israel's mortal adversaries, whether they (the Chinese & Russians) like it or not.
But nowadays to be for Israel means to fully support them in ethnically cleanse the Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank, Golan Heights, Southern Lebanon and allow for the formation of Eretz Israel. So, with these declarations Russia is passively anti-Israel.
Lavrov is wrong, there won't be a two-state solution.
Overall, Russia is apparently fine with the ongoing genocide if it refuses to criticize Israel over it.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/why-there-will-never-be-a-two-state-solution.html
I'm also not optimistic about there being a two-state solution, but my point was to raise wider awareness of Russia's position as it objectively exists, not as people want it to be.
Alt-Media is chock-full of literal lies about Russian policy towards this conflict, and they're pushed for clout, ideology, and to solicit donations.
Most people who present Russia's policy about anything in fact actually have almost no academic or professional experience analyzing it.
Most of whatever anyone reads in Alt-Media about Russia is just wishful thinking that conforms to a series of false expectations and perceptions about its policy.
Once you see the pattern, it's impossible to un-see it. I opened my eyes back in 2018, but the process was already starting in January 2017 with the first Astana talks on Syria.
Of course. I do appreciate you describing Russia's actual position. The AMC is too eager to see Russia as the responsible adult opposite the crazy children with nukes, but the reality is that Russia is just another country playing politics and isn't really all that moral of a force in the world either.
The problem with your analysis is that it ignores the elephant in the room, Iran, Israel’s existential enemy. Russia’s relationship with Iran and its support of Iran militarily belies Lavrov’s platitudes. If they really had a balanced approach they would not be holding hands with Iran. So, Andrew, there is much more that needs analysis in this complicated dance among Russia, Iran, and the Zionazi regime in the settler colonialist killing machine euphemistically known as Israel.
I've written extensively about Iran, including Russian-Iranian relations and newfound trouble over the Zangezur Corridor. You can search my archives for the materials since I'm a bit too busy right now to share find and share the relevant pieces.
But in brief, it's not a zero-sum game like you're implying. Israel is also an existential enemy of Iran's (at least its current government's), although not an explicitly stated one. The same logic goes for Russian-Israeli relations vis-a-vis Iran.
It seems like your frame of reference is that Russia is anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, and pro-Palestine, but that's not the case: it's pro-UNSC Resolutions, which is why its stance doesn't perfectly please anyone.
In any case, I'd suggest taking Lavrov's words seriously. He means them, he's not trying to psyche anyone out, etc., there's no "5D chess". Russia really is very serious about ensuring Israel's security as Russia considers it to be.
Ensuring Israel’s security would mean that if war breaks out between Iran and Israel, Russia will intervene with the US and aid Israel against Iran. It is not possible to play both sides here. UN resolutions are not worth the paper they are printed on. History makes that perfectly clear. Russia’s geopolitical interests are linked to the Arab world and Iran, not Israel. I have the greatest respect for Lavrov. Along with Putin and Xi and the Chinese diplomats, they are the only grown-ups in the room and have probably saved us from WW III. I think the Russians have a legalistic diplomatic stance but obviously in practice their behavior belies the words and IMHO rightfully so.
You failed to mention Russia's inevitable Umma Pivot after 2022. It's true that Russia has a track record of leaning towards Israel, still has strong societal tie with israel, and is still taking Israeli interest into account, does not equal it is tangibly pro-israel regarding the current confrontation in the near east. Esp. since Iran is supporting their military operation with arm shipments.
I literally coined the term Ummah Pivot so it's impossible for me to forget a major concept that I introduced into the policymaking discourse through my analytical series at this major Russian think tank (where Lavrov serves as Chairman of the Board):
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/the-geostrategic-challenges-of-russia-s-ummah-pivot/
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/columns/middle-east-policy/russia-s-ummah-pivot-opportunities-narrative-engagement/
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/andrew-korybko/comparing-the-contours-of-russias-ummah-pivot-in-syria-afghanistan/
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/sergey-lavrov/
Iran also isn't waging any military operation against Israel at the moment, and whatever equipment it might have received from Russia in recent months was likely only defensive as I explained here at the time:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/there-might-be-some-truth-to-reports
As for whether Russia's approach is pro-Israeli, I never wrote, I only wrote that it tends to lean towards Israel as proven by its history of sanctioning Iran but never sanctioning Israel despite the ongoing situation in Gaza.
Russia has also repeatedly reaffirmed Israel's right to exist and to ensure its security, which are indisputably Israeli-friendly policies, but Russia doesn't envisage advancing them in a way that harms other's interests.
From a Resistance Axis standpoint, remembering that these countries and groups are dedicated to Israel's destruction and consider it to be the "Little Satan", Russia's policy is definitely pro-Israeli since it contradicts their explicitly stated goals.
Andrew wrote "Russia has also repeatedly reaffirmed Israel's right to exist and to ensure its security, which are indisputably Israeli-friendly policies, but Russia doesn't envisage advancing them in a way that harms other's interests."
That is the very essence of peaceful coexistence. Although nowadays it seems Israel has never had any intention to stay within its 1948 borders. Had Israel done that (e.g., winning multiple conflicts but withdrawing back into its original borders,) the Middle East situation might have been different. I also see the original European Jews who founded the nation had a fairly different political view and wisdom from the current generation.
Now you're spreading fake news. "Dedicated to Israel's destruction"? Even Hezbollah has stated that it would abide by a ceasefire if Israel got out of Gaza. The Arabs have agreed to many concessions over the decades to establish peace for both Israel and the Palestinians, but the zionist factions inside and outside Israel, like the US neocons, just can't agree to peace on earth. If there's a minor fanatical group that's "dedicated to Israel's destruction," it wouldn't survive long if there was actual dialogue and negotiations instead of genocide and apartheid. Meanwhile, Israeli fascists have openly called for the extermination of the Palestinian people. You should know better.
I have zero-tolerance for people who disrespect me on my page. I don't spread fake news, I debunk it, and you're the one acting as a disinformation agent here.
Hezbollah doesn't believe in a two-state solution that indefinitely perpetuates Israel's existence as it's currently organized. They want to liberate Palestine "from the river to the sea".
Post-Revolution Iran has the exact same approach as well, and does Hamas, which also doesn't recognize Israel's legitimate right to exist in its current form.
I have no idea why you'd humiliate yourself by spewing such easily debunkable fake news, but in my experience, people like you are usually triggered by something else that I've written in the past.
They then seethe in silence until they finally muster up the courage to confront me. Just this summer, two trolls on X revealed that they've been seething for 5 and 6 years so it's not anything new.
I'm all for a respectful exchange of contrarian views, in fact, I encourage it. But what I don't accept is ad hominem attacks against me on my page such as accusing me of "spreading fake news".
I don't know who you're used to interacting with, but they must not have the self-respect that I do if they're tolerating this. Do it again and you'll be banned. There won't be a second warning.
In its current form, Israel is an Apartheid State, so Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah not recognizing its legitimacy shouldn't be a surprise - they are on the high moral ground. Remember South Africa being boycotted? Also KSA doesn't "recognize" Israel and has no formal relations with it, in its present form. It is not its mere existence that is denied, but its existence as an Apartheid state.
I really appreciate your analyses and I think that you are a very clear eyed one among the many, but you are missing this very important point. Palestinians wouldn't mind living in Israel and having same rights as the Jews. But if you look into Israel's Basic Law (the Israelis strenuously avoided to have a Constitution (learned from the Brits as well as from the US)), only the Jews are full citizens...
As such, you erroneously label Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc as wanting to erase Israel and perpetuate this trope which serves Israel's asspiration of getting more territory - which will never give them strategic depth.
Banned? That's a joke. I only read you occasionally to see what nonsense you're spewing. You're not on the top of my reading list. and now you're off it altogether. You'd better watch your words more carefully or you'll lose what little credibility you have. "In its current form" is an improvement -- keep fixing your errors.
I won't vote for either Harris or Trump because they both back the genocidal thing called Israel. How ironic I'm called a Putin puppet when I wouldn't vote for him for the exact same reason.
Russia's position on Israel is flawed and untenable. There can be no two-state solution. There never could have been, not with Zionism as the driving Israeli ideology, as recent Israeli actions make plain. Their goal is the ethnic cleansing of all of the territory they can conquer and hold, and they cannot possibly succeed.
Eventually American aid to Israel will vanish. What will Russia do then when all of those Russian Zionists want to move back to Russia and advocate for the re-establishment of Israel? I'm sure the Russian government has no idea, but perhaps they should start thinking about it. It's coming, but maybe not when Russia is lucky enough to have an intelligent man like Putin at the helm.
I don't expect the US to ever fully cut Israel off, but if its existence was seriously threatened, then Russia might try to support Israel in some tangible way seeing as how Putin explicitly stated that he considers them to be "a true common family":
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61546
Of course, that's just the way that Putin sees it, but if this scenario unfolds after his presidency ends (whenever that might be), then whoever succeeds him might see everything differently but it's impossible to speculate on who they'd be and how they'd think.
I do see the US cutting off Israel much as it once did South Africa. In fact, it’s inevitable, but I don’t know how long it will take.
I think years instead of months, unfortunately, but it won’t be decades. I’d love to see a profound lack of American interest in the Middle East.
Thank you for setting the record straight in this matter. I wonder how many other false memes are doing the rounds. Take for instance the idea that Putin has allowed the West to cross his red lines time and again in the past, without ever reacting. Is this actually true?
I explained that here:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/lavrov-explained-what-russia-hopes
Great post which brings a much needed perspective. I also appreciate the facts presented. We often fall for the headlines without actually looking at what is really said or discussed.
The foregone conclusion here is that committing to Israel’s security is a good thing, and something that all nations should be clamoring for.
I am not convinced that Israel has anyone else’s best interests in mind other than her own.
The country that creates all of the problems in the Middle East should learn to take care of itself.
One cannot at all agree with the position expressed by S. Lavrov, who fundamentally ignores the colonial, racist and expansionist nature of the Zionist entity. An intolerable attitude on the part of a Russia that is a champion of the right of peoples to freedom and independence, and of international legality which must prevail in all things. One cannot pose as the defender of an entity based on the negation and destruction of the other, without renouncing the moral and virtuous principles to which one claims to subscribe!…
Another sober and balanced analysis!
Well, if Lavrov genuinely believes this, I think he's deluded... Russia might feel like being the Best Friend Forever of Israel, but this is clearly not the same the other way round!
Israel survives & is able to bomb and genocide with impunity only because the USA has its back. Full stop, end of story.
Ergo, for the Israelis it is IMPERATIVE that the USA remains as strong and dominant as possible. They know that no one else would be able to replace the USA in that supportive role.
Ergo, any other nation or alliance that contests the US dominance is automatically an enemy of the Israeli establishment.
Ergo, China & Russia are by default Israel's mortal adversaries, whether they (the Chinese & Russians) like it or not.
But nowadays to be for Israel means to fully support them in ethnically cleanse the Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank, Golan Heights, Southern Lebanon and allow for the formation of Eretz Israel. So, with these declarations Russia is passively anti-Israel.