Lukashenko Is Learning The Hard Way That Trump Loves Humiliating His Vassals

The US’ decision not to issue visas for the Belarusian delegation to the Board of Peace meeting was a “plausibly deniable” form of humiliation against them for Lukashenko snubbing the event since Trump already takes him for granted as a future vassal and therefore expected his personal attendance.

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry complained on social media that “Visas for our delegation to the Peace Council meeting were not issued, despite all documents being submitted on time and procedures followed…If even basic formalities aren’t respected, what ‘peace’ are we talking about?” This follows President Alexander Lukashenko declining to attend last week’s first meeting for unclear reasons, though not due to pressure from Putin he said, after accepting Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace.

As was explained here in January, Trump always has the final say on the Board’s decisions and activities, and he can even reverse them at any time after they’re already made or being implemented. The group that he founded therefore functions as a place to buy influence with him, but that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll do what’s asked of him. Even so, since the Board might discuss the Ukrainian Conflict, Putin expressed interest in accepting Trump’s invitation to join so that Russia can have a seat at the table.

Lukashenko’s interests in accepting Trump’s invitation arguably differ from Putin’s since he’s involved in very serious discussions with the US over sanctions relief and alleviating other pressure upon Belarus. Talks with the US, and speculatively those secretly mediated by the US between Belarus and Poland, are going so well that his Foreign Minister shared a radically changed perception of Poland in late January that’s the complete opposite of Russia’s despite both facing serious Polish-emanating threats from NATO.

It was in this context that “Russia Warned About The West’s Color Revolution Plans In Belarus Four Years In Advance”, which the preceding hyperlinked analysis argues was timed to “signal Russia’s concern that [he’s] moving too fast in his détente with [the West] due to naiveté.” In his previously cited remarks denying that pressure from Putin was responsible for him declining to attend last week’s meeting, Lukashenko also had the following to say, which hints that it played a role in his decision.

In his words, “Putin is a person who would never (tell him not to go)... He would carefully move things around, make hints, but not to allow somebody to go? On the contrary, he would have said: ‘Listen, when you are there at the Board, tell [US President] Donald [Trump] this, this, this.’” This intriguingly suggests that perhaps Lukashenko interpreted Russia’s abovementioned warning about the West’s Color Revolution plans in Belarus four years in advance exactly as it was assessed as subtly signaling.

Had he attended the event, then Trump would have expected him to kiss the ring just like his Kazakh counterpart did for the reasons that were analyzed here, and then the optics could have been manipulated to exacerbate the perception of growing differences between him and Putin over the US. Trump was offended that Lukashenko didn’t plan to attend and instead designated his Foreign Minister to go in his place, ergo why the US didn’t issue the visas, thus humiliating them all, including Lukashenko.

Lukashenko therefore found out the hard way that Trump already considers him a vassal despite the absence of any “big deal” between them of the sort that he proclaimed last fall that Belarus is actively negotiating with the US. Trump loves humiliating his vassals as proven by his harsh treatment of the Canadians and Europeans over the past year. He’s not openly treating Lukashenko the same, at least not yet, but he already ordered his team to do so in a “plausibly deniable” way after being snubbed.