32 Comments
Sep 3Liked by Andrew Korybko

It might have been a good thing, though - by appearing to respect the ICC re: Putin, it was able to lead the case against Israel. I mean, SA couldn't have known that was going to happen, but there is that benefit from it.

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I see your point, but I think the ICC is a politicized institution. I acknowledge the positive optics of RSA bringing its case against IS there, but I still feel like it was a greater blow to that country's reputation to not host Putin than it was to use the ICC against IS.

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Sep 3Liked by Andrew Korybko

I agree - I was just silver-lining hunting.

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Does S. Africa even have a reputation to uphold? I find it ironic that they bring a case against Israel when they've made no attempt to stop the brutal murder of white farmers, many of whom have fled to Russia. You know more about Russia than I do Andrew, so here's a question. Given that Russia knows all about the plight of S. African farmers, have they given any thought to condemning S. Africa, or taking steps such as imposing sanctions to get them to clean up their act? I haven't seen anything like that. Along the same lines, since those farmers are Christian has the Orthodox Church made any effort to address the situation? Seems to me there's a moral obligation here that goes beyond simple trade relations or lofty ideals such as multi-polarity and non-interference. Russia used the 'right to protect' principle to defend its own people in Ukraine, but where are they on the moral right to protect their fellow Christians?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/bury-them-alive-white-south-africans-fear-for-their-future-as-horrific-farm-attacks-escalate/news-story/3a63389a1b0066b6b0b77522c06d6476

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If you take a careful look, you will note that neither Russia, or China attempts to tell other countries what their policies should be, and do not interfere in the running of other countries.

As a South African, I can assure you that more than once we had hoped that Russia or China would drop more than a subtle hint on our ANC government in regard to its failed and failing domestic policies.

But then again we also understand why, given that the world doesn't need more Hegemons than the one we already have, namely the US, but which also turns a blind eye when it suits them.

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"If you take a careful look, you will note that neither Russia, or China attempts to tell other countries what their policies should be, and do not interfere in the running of other countries."

Seriously? What do you call the invasion of Ukraine then? How about Georgia, Syria, Pridnestrovia or the Wagner Group in various African countries?

Russia has an option to address the situation I just described. Stop trading with SA, just like many countries did which helped bring an end to apartheid.

The SA govt. has ample resources to stop the attacks. Arresting and convicting the perpetrators would be a start. Can't be too hard. Just offer a substantial reward for turning them in. It's a poor country. Someone will rat them out for the money. They could also post police or military at key locations that would respond immediately to house alarms or emergency calls. Once you start arresting and convicting the criminals it will eventually stop. Instead they sing songs about killing the Boer? What kind of message does that send?

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PS!!! Look at your own Yankee Shit Hole and how the Justice system has collapsed in the US, but like all typical Loudmouthed Hypocritical Americans, your jaw is flapping, with meaningless Bullshit falling out of it.

If you treally even understood the failings of your own policing and judicial system it would be a start, but them you expose your Gross Ignorance in regard to South Africa and or government failures, without having the faintest idea or understanding of the complexities involved.

You really are an American Idiot.

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Are you really that Stupid, as to conflate and obfuscate the situation in the Ukraine with my comment???

What about Ukraine, Georgia, ???

Syria, what did Russia do to influence policy in Syria or is that just more of your Gross Ignorance???

Why should Russia stop trading with South Africa, just look at how Fucking Idiotic that Bullshit has turned out for the West, and please show me what it has achieved before uttering anymore of your Idiocy???

You are obviously an American Idiot, conflating Wagner, a Private military contractor with the Russian government, so them we should consider US PMC's and their act as part of the US government!!

You American Morons are a laugh a minute.

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"Are you really that Stupid..."

Stopped reading there. You could have made a polite counter argument but you took the low road, so fuck you, and I mean that most sincerely.

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One obvious reason can be found by looking at a globe. South Africa has a long coastline and borders with countries that don't always have the most independent governments. Mongolia is landlocked, and completely surrounded by Russia and China.

Just saying it's a lot easier for the US Empire to mess with South Africa than it is for it to mess with Mongolia.

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Our Country South Africa is still desperately clinging to the AGOA agricultural export agreement which the US holds over our heads like the Sword of Damocles.

I still don't understand why we still cling to this dated and onerous agreement rather than developing new markets within BRICS and BRICS friendly countries.

China has signed major agreements with South Africa for the multi-year supply of maize ( corn ), and Saudi Arabia has signed a major deal for the supply of beef, and no doubt if we looked a little harder, we would most certainly find other markets for our agricultural products in the middle east and Asia.

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This agreement is similar to the sword held over Mexico with NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). It has since acquired a slightly different name but the intent is the same. Every time Mexico makes a sovereign move the hegemonic neighbor dislikes the treaty is rattled indicating trade or currency problems. The array of issues that have fallen under this pretext is mind-boggling. Despite AMLO's attempts to reframe the agreement to be at least somewhat more favorable to Mexico, the grip remains tight.

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AGOA functions slightly differently, however the purpose is the same, Extortion to ensure compliance with the Hegemon.

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I know nothing about that agreement of which you speak, but it sounds like it was designed to exploit South Africa for American profit. Am I wrong?

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It was designed by the US to exploit most of Africa, and keep African countries in line.

Several Agrican countries have been expelled from the agreement, which is more to their advantage than their detriment.

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Hopefully South Africa learns the lesson and welcomes Putin next time.

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Coming to Mongolia next month will be Samantha Power and the evil USAID, Damon Wilson of the horrible National Endowment for Democracy and maybe even the former Undersecretary of State “regime change Karen” Victoria Nuland to pass out cookies for yet another one of the Empire of Lies color revolutions. 🤡 That’ll never work!!! 🤪

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I would like to provide a somewhat diferent viewpoint and that is Mr. Putin, SA, and Mongolia all did the best decisions for their countries. The long flight from Moscow to South Africa is not risk free. During WW2, US did long range raid to assassinate admiral Yamaoto. There is no guarantee that this kind of things will not replay.

South Africa was ruled by the Dutch Afrikaners then the British. Even today, there are still some whites holding important overnment or business positions. The business and cultural ties to the "West" is simply too strong to be wiped out cleanly after aparthheid ended. South Africa also needs continued export and development of mineral projects, Russia can offer little help in these aspects. China is quite willing to buy, help, loot, etc. but China is simply too far away.

Mongolia was essentially a protectorate after the third emperor of the Manchurian dynasty destroyed the Zhunger Mongol. Mongolia has limited natural resources. Once they lose the expanse of grass land and firearms totally obsoleted the cold irons, Mongolia faces some very high bars to develop into a modern country. Around 1921 when China was badly fragmented and warlords fought each other, the king of Mogolia decided to switch to the coming Red Army (who were chasing the White out). For Russian military, especially armored forces to reach Beijing, the fastest route is to roll through Monglia. By the time of Battles of Khalkhin Gol, Mongolia had been a total vassal of Russia. Mongolia is totally land locked by Russia and China. In addition, the 1943 USSR annexation of Tuvan (Uriankhay) is a sword hanging over all Mongolian political elites.

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"Mongolia has limited natural resources."

Mongolia has the world's second largest reserves of uranium.

https://www.orano.group/en/news/news-group/2023/october/orano-signs-a-protocol-for-the-development-and-operation-of-a-uranium-mine-project-in-mongolia

and an abundance of other minerals

https://erdene.com/en/news/2023/molybdenum-copper-project-mongolia-drilling-begins/

Mongolia is under-explored, as a friend who does hard rock drilling explained. The main issues are access and infrastructure, but the geology is there, similar to Kazakhstan, also a major uranium producer.

I was a mining investor focused on exploration for many years. I also did analysis of the impact of technology on economic development. For example, many countries that lacked wire based telephone networks, which require massive amounts of copper (often stolen) leapfrogged that economic bottleneck by installing cellular networks once they became affordable. As a result, a small farmer in a village in Namibia, for example, can call ahead and get a quote on his produce before making the 10km trek to market only to find there are no buyers, while the phone he uses can be charged by the community solar panels, also a major game changer providing power for phones, radio and television as well as home lighting.

In Mongolia's case, electrification is an obstacle to development, most of it being of Soviet vintage. In the same way that cellular overcame the telephony problem, modular nuclear reactors (such as China is currently building) will solve the electrification problem, eliminating the need for massive power plants and expensive transmission lines. This will happen all along the New Silk Road, bringing a level of economic and social development previously unknown all across Central Asia. In the next decade, Mongolia will become an important centre of industrial development, much as Kazakhstan is today.

I'm not in the game anymore but I still keep an eye on developments, and if anyone were to ask where I think the next big play in mineral exploration is, I'd point them to Mongolia where there's far less risk than in Africa or South America and where the geology literally screams explore me! As an investor with a longer horizon, I'd be looking at the Russian and Chinese companies that will provide the materials, equipment and support for future development, such as Rosatom or Kamaz.

I'm sure all these things were discussed at the meeting of the two heads of state. Meanwhile, the EU continues to undermine itself with 'green energy' programs, while the most obvious source of green energy is nuclear power. Not the old technology, the new. Honestly, I don't understand European attitudes toward nuclear, especially Germany. It's like deciding not to drive automobiles because of the problems GM had with the 1963 Chevy Corvair.

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Reportedly (correct or not on YouTube) Rio Tinto had the go-ahead to mine copper in Mongolia going after vast reserves. Then it encountered roadblocks suspiciously similar to USA demands, though coming from Mongolian gov't, that it not sell the ore to China. A series of other obstacles finally led it to abandon the project.

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Some background on that situation:

https://blogs.ubc.ca/mongolia/2021/fixing-relationship-riotinto-government/

and its apparent resolution:

https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Oyu-Tolgoi-partners-reach-comprehensive-agreement-and-approve-commencement-of-underground-mining-operations

I'm not familiar with the particulars but I do have experience dealing with another government - Ecuador - when major deposits of gold and copper were made in what is arguably one of the richest most under-explored geologies in South America. Basically the government changed and they decided to play hard ball, which killed several projects which could have brought significant economic advantages to that country. I'm pretty sure Mongolians aren't that obtuse, and them reaching a deal with RT seems to support that notion.

Truth is, there's only a few companies in the world with the expertise and capital to bring a major mine into production, and none of them are Mongolian. Off the top of my head, Australia, Canada, France, USA, China and Russia. I expect a large part of Putin's visit was to secure their position in Mongolia, given that France and Australia are already there. I base this on their purchase of Uranium One which gave them control over 20% of US production and caused quite a stir at the time, which was comical because that was just a sidebar compared to the actual objective, which was control of U1's position in Kazakhstan.

Geopolitical analysts look at things like oil and gas reserves, pipelines and trade routes, but they tend to overlook mining. Where they do pay attention is to strategic metals, but the truth is ALL metals are strategic. If you don't have the ability to manufacture steel you won't have a navy or an army with tanks and artillery. If you don't have bauxite you can't make aluminum, so you won't have an air force. Truth is, nations that can't meet all their domestic needs internally, including defence, aren't truly sovereign in that they must depend on a foreign nation to support them. That's the key to understanding "multipolarity" which from the smaller nation's perspective, such as Mongolia, is not so much about sovereignty as whose team you are on.

<edit>

If you look at the deal Mongolia cut with RT, it includes RT paying down a substantial portion of Mongolia's external debt. I image Russia holds some of that debt and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they cancelled it in return for mining concessions, so watch for that in the news. I'm guessing something similar is in the works with regard to N. Korea.

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Yes, agree. As I understand, Russia & China for that matter, have tremendous amounts of metal resources on their own vast lands. Russia in particular has lots of uranium which, reportedly, it still sells to USA. My hunch is that at least some of this wrangling is about maintaining ties so that places like Mongolia, right on the border don't become too cosey with USA. NOT another Ukraine! And of course there's the gas pipeline, long in negotiations, but risky to put through Mongolia at this time. However, I concede that Russian leaders are in a better position to guage this than l!

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I doubt the USA could ever drive a wedge between Russia and Mongolia. A bit of history is in order to understand their relationship.

https://montsame.mn/en/read/239018

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Thanks for your interesting articles.

In this case I think your analysis is clouded by not understanding the South African legal system. The RSA government invited Putin to the summit. Putin decided not to attend because he faced arrest on the ICC warrant.

This issue has already been decided by RSA court cases on the 2015 visit of President Al Bashir of Sudan to South Africa to attend the AU assembly. Al Bashir also faced an ICC arrest warrant and the RSA government did not arrest him despite a court order instructing them to do so. The Court found the there was no sovereign immunity with respect to ICC warrants as the RSA is a signatory to the ICC. The implication is that the RSA state apparatus is obliged to arrest anyone in a similar position, including Putin. (https://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA/2016/17.pdf)

The ANC had resolved to withdraw the RSA from the ICC through an act of Parliament, but this would not have passed and has been dropped, probably for ever due to the ANC now governing in coalition with pro-western parties.

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As a South African, I wholeheartedly agree, what is interesting though, is that the South African government did not arrest Bashar Al Assad on his visit to our country, despite the furore surrounding the fact that tere was an outstanding ICC warrant for the arrest of Bashar Al Assad.

Our current government however thinks that than can stand with one foot in BRICS and enjoy all of the benefits, and one foot in the US led hegemonic West and also enjoy all of the benefits.

All the while the ANC government is merely trying to extort financial support from whosoever will pay such.

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Geography probably has a lot to do with Mongolian attitudes. They're in the middle of nowhere with only two neighbours - China and Russia, which account for most of their trade and investment, so they're not likely to feel the effect of any western sanctions on dealing with them. They're also unlikely to become the victims of a colour revolution since there's no serious animosity between different ethnic groups like you find in S Africa, plus there's nowhere to hide if you're an insurgent - the place is a barren wasteland and where would you supply an insurgency from?

Google Maps has good coverage of the capital and a few other cities. I always go to Google maps when investigating a place, as the street views tell you a lot about a country, such as the age and condition of the buildings, roads and other infrastructure, businesses, vehicles, industries and so forth. One clue I look for, and you'll see this everywhere in S. Africa but not so much in Mongolia, is security fences and bars on windows. This tells you a lot about the level of property crime. Another indicator is graffiti which you don't see much of in Mongolia. Trash is another indicator, and while Mongolia is a bit worn down with age, you don't see trash everywhere, in fact it's remarkably clean for a poor country. Another indicator is signage. Mongolian has its own script, but almost all the signage is in Cyrillic and only a few in Chinese, which I assume are Chinese businesses.

I haven't been to either country, but I've met people who have, and their information is also valuable. The S. African whites I've met all warned me off the place, which is be expected. I also have a friend who's been all over the word as a drill operator in exploration mining and one of his favourite places is Mongolia because of the people, who he says are the friendliest he's met just about anywhere. He even lived with a Mongolian family in a yurt, so I guess he knows.

Of course travel bloggers are a good source of information, especially those that move at the level of the common folk, like Bald & Bankrupt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dWfMMQslzU

I agree with the premise that the BRICS relationship is mainly about trade, and why wouldn't you want good trade relations? Apart from that, there's not much Russia has in common with any of them. I've done a fair amount of travelling in my life and frankly I'd give all of them a miss except of course Russia, and China, which is an amazing country that I'd be very happy to visit again.

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So the takeaway for me - not yet having read the linked material about BRICS - is that BRICS is not a 'gang' of Mafia style standover merchants but more an association of people avowing their intent to work with everyone else if they possibly can whilst at the same time putting their own nation's interest first.

That's good. I better read the material. See if I'm right.

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Well, I think you're pretty near the mark!

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Mongolia has the good luck to have Russia and China as "protective" buffers, buffers that all the time are respecting Mongolia's independence. Imagine China, or Russia, or both, behaving like the US...

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African modern Moron slaves in South Africa still have the old slave mindset

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