Wagner’s presence in Belarus serves as the perfect pretext for Poland and its Lithuanian ally to escalate tensions with Russia if they exploit it for the purpose of reimposing last summer’s de facto blockade of Kaliningrad so as to preempt the scenario of peace talks resuming by year’s end after Kiev’s counteroffensive stops.
plete Russian defeat and mandatory reparations from Russia to help rebuild Ukraine? Or is there some other reason? I see the most essential part of any peace agreement a mandate that Ukraine be prohibited from joining NATO. That would imply that Ukraine not demilitarize, because deprived of NATO Article 5 Ukraine will be forced to defend itself. Territory will have to be hammered out at a peace conference. But Russia must keep Crimea and parts of Ukraine it occupied before February 24, 2019.
Is the beginning of negotiations not in Polish or Latvian interest because they want com
plete Russian defeat and mandatory reparations from Russia to help rebuild Ukraine? Or is there some other reason? I see the most essential part of any peace agreement a mandate that Ukraine be prohibited from joining NATO. That would imply that Ukraine not demilitarize, because deprived of NATO Article 5 Ukraine will be forced to defend itself. Territory will have to be hammered out at a peace conference. But Russia must keep Crimea and parts of Ukraine it occupied before February 24, 2019.