Entering into a rapprochement with Belarus along the lines of what the US is reportedly working towards would prevent Poland’s ruling duopoly from playing the Russian card against one another during elections and nullify the imperative behind its large-scale military buildup.
I suspect right now Poland (NATO) is a good deal more interested in information regarding what Belarus has on the ground as opposed to Belarus' (Russia's) interest in what Poland has on the ground.
Intuitively Belarus has an easier grab by going south from Minsk rather than from Brest. Belarus is not going to let Poland inspect its border with Ukraine just like Poland would not let Belarus inspect the Polish-Ukraine border. If Belarus wants to grab a piece of Ukraine, the only related matter is that Belarus does not need to station a strong force on its western border. At the same time, Poland also needs to shift forces south for Galicia. If Poland refuses this Belarus proposal, it should have more of an ideological consideration. After all, the regular Polish army is 4x the size of Belarus's. After both sides mobilize, the ratio is probably the same. I think Belarus has not called up reservists, while Poland has called up 200K and I have not seen news about demobilization.
I suspect the reason and timing for improved relations is that it is more likely to secure westerrn ukraine from poland and keep the poles off-guard by having a buffer of a type up to 80km from belarus.
Belarus has not yet entered the conflict and if it deteriorates through accelerated chaos when the kievan regime falls, and there appears to be opportunity for hungary poland and others to gain old lost territory. Belarus will enter ukraine to secure its own national interest and by doing so aid russia to maximalise its gains.
that buffer will de-incentivise poland from intervening on the side of nato or kiev and give belarus greater flexibility and mobility inside ukraine.
I suspect right now Poland (NATO) is a good deal more interested in information regarding what Belarus has on the ground as opposed to Belarus' (Russia's) interest in what Poland has on the ground.
If only!
Intuitively Belarus has an easier grab by going south from Minsk rather than from Brest. Belarus is not going to let Poland inspect its border with Ukraine just like Poland would not let Belarus inspect the Polish-Ukraine border. If Belarus wants to grab a piece of Ukraine, the only related matter is that Belarus does not need to station a strong force on its western border. At the same time, Poland also needs to shift forces south for Galicia. If Poland refuses this Belarus proposal, it should have more of an ideological consideration. After all, the regular Polish army is 4x the size of Belarus's. After both sides mobilize, the ratio is probably the same. I think Belarus has not called up reservists, while Poland has called up 200K and I have not seen news about demobilization.
I suspect the reason and timing for improved relations is that it is more likely to secure westerrn ukraine from poland and keep the poles off-guard by having a buffer of a type up to 80km from belarus.
Belarus has not yet entered the conflict and if it deteriorates through accelerated chaos when the kievan regime falls, and there appears to be opportunity for hungary poland and others to gain old lost territory. Belarus will enter ukraine to secure its own national interest and by doing so aid russia to maximalise its gains.
that buffer will de-incentivise poland from intervening on the side of nato or kiev and give belarus greater flexibility and mobility inside ukraine.