Trump is unlikely to extend Article 5 guarantees to Polish troops in Belarus and Ukraine, who’d be attacked by Russia the moment that they intervene, so Lukashenko’s fear of Poland attempting to annex those two’s territory that it controlled during the interwar period isn’t expected to materialize.
" The socio-cultural motivation for annexing those countries’ territories where Poles were historically indigenous for centuries prior to the end of World War II "
So Poland cant get its ancient lands back but everyone , including Putin, has no problem with Israel and its "ancient" land reclamation ? Cant have it both ways.
" policy of creating a buffer zone of subordinated states between it and Russia, "
Now, why would Poland want to do that if Russia is just a bunch peace loving, non-interventionist hippies who just want to get along and do business ? Do they know something the Putin fan club doesnt know ?
The concern is that, Article 5 or no, the US cannot be seen leaving its vassal out to dry.
And Polish troops would not be entering these countries to annex territory but to enforce regime change (in the case of Byelorus) and to prop up the existing regime (in case of Ukraine).
Poland has roughly four times of population and nine times of economic size of Belarus. In isolation, Poland has some basis to play the bull. But once we consider the geopolitical context, then there are no good odds for the Poles. Why do they still yap? Maybe just a habit from history. Maybe Duda has not gotten the memo that the US has a change of presidency. Or more likely, somebody in the basement of the Pentagon told Duda to do this and that, and that guy is above Duda's pay scale. Given What the Poles have done in the last few years, Lukashenko's performance is low-profile enough. I think Mr. Lukashenko can afford to be even calmer and quieter, but that would be against his personality.
Off topic question as you might know. How did Iran pay for its recent su-34 acquisition from Russia if there's no alternative system to the US controlled SWIFT ?
Maybe Poles aren't afraid of Belorus, but that's probably different with respect to Belorus's Big Brother. It's a bit like school yard antics.
And no, no lowly Pentagon guy is above Duda's pay scale. It takes some "moral courage" to disinvite the heads of government of Russia and Israel to the 80th commemoration of the Liberation of Ausschwitz. So yes, since engineering lifting the siege of Vienna in the late 1600s, the Poles are not particularly gifted at building winning coalitions.
If European based NATO nations continue to provoke Russia and Belarus they will pay for their enterprise with their own blood. Just accept the borders as they are now and forget history - then peace may break out!
Why bother then? Why do they continue to poke the Bear? With issues like this the solution can be best seen if the protagonist placed themselves in the oppositions shoes - then the dimension of the problem becomes obvious and the solution is logical.
" The socio-cultural motivation for annexing those countries’ territories where Poles were historically indigenous for centuries prior to the end of World War II "
So Poland cant get its ancient lands back but everyone , including Putin, has no problem with Israel and its "ancient" land reclamation ? Cant have it both ways.
" policy of creating a buffer zone of subordinated states between it and Russia, "
Now, why would Poland want to do that if Russia is just a bunch peace loving, non-interventionist hippies who just want to get along and do business ? Do they know something the Putin fan club doesnt know ?
Does that mean that Poland will remove the troops that are already there?
The concern is that, Article 5 or no, the US cannot be seen leaving its vassal out to dry.
And Polish troops would not be entering these countries to annex territory but to enforce regime change (in the case of Byelorus) and to prop up the existing regime (in case of Ukraine).
We'd be much better off if we left NATO to itself, vassals being unreliable allies.
Poland has roughly four times of population and nine times of economic size of Belarus. In isolation, Poland has some basis to play the bull. But once we consider the geopolitical context, then there are no good odds for the Poles. Why do they still yap? Maybe just a habit from history. Maybe Duda has not gotten the memo that the US has a change of presidency. Or more likely, somebody in the basement of the Pentagon told Duda to do this and that, and that guy is above Duda's pay scale. Given What the Poles have done in the last few years, Lukashenko's performance is low-profile enough. I think Mr. Lukashenko can afford to be even calmer and quieter, but that would be against his personality.
Off topic question as you might know. How did Iran pay for its recent su-34 acquisition from Russia if there's no alternative system to the US controlled SWIFT ?
Maybe Poles aren't afraid of Belorus, but that's probably different with respect to Belorus's Big Brother. It's a bit like school yard antics.
And no, no lowly Pentagon guy is above Duda's pay scale. It takes some "moral courage" to disinvite the heads of government of Russia and Israel to the 80th commemoration of the Liberation of Ausschwitz. So yes, since engineering lifting the siege of Vienna in the late 1600s, the Poles are not particularly gifted at building winning coalitions.
If European based NATO nations continue to provoke Russia and Belarus they will pay for their enterprise with their own blood. Just accept the borders as they are now and forget history - then peace may break out!
"Poland Won’t Send Troops To Belarus Or Ukraine Without Trump’s Approval"
Really now? If I were Trump, I would say "go ahead, we're right behind you" :P... FAFO!
And would you push your unwilling son into the conscription queues that will feed them to thatmeat grinder? I think (hope) not
Poland is bluffing. They are the tiny dog, yapping only from the safety of their leash.
Why bother then? Why do they continue to poke the Bear? With issues like this the solution can be best seen if the protagonist placed themselves in the oppositions shoes - then the dimension of the problem becomes obvious and the solution is logical.