He wants to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting, such as destabilizing and then invading Belarus, with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.
Here in the hegemonic West, we are lead by genocidal fascists. We put our trust in the wisdom and temperance of Russian and Chinese leaders, hoping they understand the situation and act rationally. We have no such expectations regarding our own 'leaders'. How can this situation NOT lead to disaster? I don't see it. But who knows? Miracles DO happen.
By containing the American 'pivot (back) to Asia'.
It's a (Chinese) waiting game: the more energy the Americans invest into their inevitable second (or third of forth)-time-lucky attempt (colour revolutions in the DMZ, paying for amputees in NATO-Ukraine and refugees in the NATO-West-proper, preparatory intensified militarisation of the 'New Ukraine', etc.), the less they have to expend on preparation, doing the same thing to China, in Asia.
Ditto for the West to exhaust its inventory in a military failure when Russia can withstand the cost. Then less can be sent to Israel and a better chance of settlement in the Middle East. Russia, certainly, has no obligation of any kind to wear down the Western inventory for the ME.
"Russia, certainly, has no obligation of any kind to wear down the Western inventory for the ME"
No, certainly not OBLIGED; it's just worked out as happy coincidence: win-win-win. Thank you near-sighted and otherwise (self-)restricted American 'Deep State'! It couldn't have been done, wouldn't have worked, without you.
Funny thing is, how Putin understands and expresses the irony: had the Americans not been silly and insisted they must save their intermediate range missiles from a renewed treaty to use them for their long-awaited (front-line NATO) 'decapitation (first) strike', the Russians might not have developed the new technology, which makes all the stalling to shirk the treaty even better than pointless. It makes their shirking out of the treaty counter-productive — a truly GRAND irony! If only they'd renewed the treaty, as the Russians spent so many years begging them to do, NATO wouldn't have lost its first-strike potential and the Russians wouldn't have developed the technology to defeat them. Isn't it funny, how God works?!
All the Americans (formerly NATO) have to do now is relax and continue to rely on the Russians' goodwill and mercy. Win(for China)-Win(for the ME)-Win(for Europe) + another win or two (or three) for the Ukraine and the rest of the world. Thank you, Russia!
Indeed. Russia as led by Putin, can be described as following the principle of "preparing for what your opponents are capable of doing, rather than your estimation of what your opponents are likely to do.". Putin for one, had trusted the West too much in the past and he publicly acknowledged his fault (unusual for a national leader, anytime, anywhere) In contrast, the American elites, neocons, and deep staters have not only under-estimated Russia's capability, mis-judged or ignored Russians intention, AND over-estimated themselves. It is hard to acquire satisfactory results this way.
"It is hard to acquire satisfactory results this way."
Well, the funny thing is, as I see it, it's not possible to produce satisfactory results this way consciously. It's question of honesty, who you are at heart. It's so perceptive of you to have noticed, "...he publicly acknowledged his fault...". He wouldn't have been able to do this, had he been trying to produce results consciously. It's only because he does what he thinks is best, as he feels it at heart, that he is able to be honest about it. This is why so many other politicians are unable to produce the results they would like to see: they're so busy plotting and scheming at every level, both consciously and unconsciously, that they lose track of how they've lied to themselves, not to mention others. All the energy of their hearts and minds goes into keeping track of lies.
It's a religious-type thing: the discipline of training yourself from an early age to try and be good: do unto others, etc. and don't try to hide from your mistakes because doing that (and oh-such a wide variety of other things) will trip you up. I don't go to church but I do understand how churches (or temples or mosques or whatever you want to call religious discipline) would like people to make themselves.
Another part of the GRAND irony, which I find so gratifying here, is that the Americans, e.g. Lindsay Graham, would pretend they have instilled religious discipline in themselves. Putin, of course, would never say such a thing. He just is. You'd need to draw your own conclusions about the Americans.
A different matter: The Confucius school of thought focuses on doing the right things and good things based on human nature and human wills. Confucius talked nothing about divine guidance or theology. He would not go to a church to find his strength then or now. But we do have to acknowledge that many people will need that extra boost from a mysterious source.
Russia has a golden opportunity to put an end to the threat that US proxy Ukraine poses by committing itself to the complete surrender of the Nazi Zelensky regime and the defeat of its AFU forces. Ukraine's total defeat would, once and for all, put an end to any notion of Ukraine being part of NATO, provide Russia with an extended buffer zone and make Ukraine responsible for reparations for its failure to abide by the Minsk accord, which only served as a hostile delaying tactic as later admitted. There is also the question of how many Russians were bombed and killed by Ukraine's ethnic cleansing campaign during the peace before the SMO. Such war crimes can't go unpunished.
However, Russia appears to want a negotiated settlement after Trump gets power. In other words, Russia is not committed to forcing Ukraine to surrender. It appears to want to make a deal even though it commands the battlefield with attrition rates of about 5 to 1. Really? Russia can destroy an enemy that tries to destroy it, but instead, it decides to make concessions. The escalation ladder that Russia is climbing is impotent. So, instead of taking it all (Ukraine), Russia will settle for a conditional settlement with the new Trump administration, only to face renewed hostilities at some time in the future instead of putting an end to it once and for all. No wonder the US doesn't take Russia seriously because it isn't. What would the US do if Russia had forces set up at the Mexican border? lol
Even if the West reaches a temporary settlement, they'll simply revert to terrorist or other asymmetric attacks on Russia, while playing stupid about who trains and sponsors those terrorists.
The question remains whether NATO will listen. The problem is that NATO has already gone (and been allowed to go) so far that they cannot be seen to back down, now. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
Even if NATO does back off on missile attacks (and Russia's response shows that yes, they kind of were a big deal), they'll likely resort to terrorist attacks or other responses that cannot readily be dealt with using ICBMs.
They can back down, everyone knows that Ukraine is almost irrelevant for US strategic interests while being of existential interests to Russia. "NATO" as an entity has no will or interests of its own except American interests. The US left from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, it can just as easily leave from Ukraine. All the talking heads crying about how that's impossible is just nothing but propaganda. They will do a 180 degree turn the moment they get updated talking points from those above them.
It may appear so, and it's perhaps existential to their careers - Doesn't require them NOT to high-tail-it in reverse and spin-it like whirling-Dervishes.
I am afraid it's too late and to little of Russian response to be taken seriously by the West. To the contrary, it may even be a welcome excuse for the NATO to deploy still more deadly weapons of still larger range to Ukraine.
I also don't understand why you, Andrew, write about "Putin's" instead of "Russian" response. Putin does not determine this policy alone. The leadership of Russian Federation - certainly in such existential matters - is much broader.
I'm afraid a single NATO soldier anywhere in the Ukraine is a defeat for Russia. Lvov was part of the ancient Rus, after all. Putin might be able to spin it otherwise for a while, but make no mistake, this would be a strategic defeat for Russia.
While Andrew's proposal may be more acceptable to the West, I think the boundary of Ukraine/western control has to be pushed back further. The neutral zone should include all Oblasts bordering on the Dnieper ((minus what has been annexed into Russia and Minus Kiev and area west of Kiev)), Nikolaev Oblast, and Odesa Oblast. Ukraine can control mostly everything in the TransDnieper region if sufficient autonomy is granted to individual Oblasts, the buffer zone totally de-militarized, de-banderalized, no western forces of any kind, no MIC. The issue is that the western bank of Dnieper is higher than the eastern bank from around Kremenchuk to the Sea, if not an even larger area.
IMHO, it is not too difficult for Trump to have a quick withdrawal of US involvement from Ukraine Given the Afghanistan experience. But chances are Russia has to deal with meddling from UK, France, Germany, and Poland. Germany may get softened soon enough; Poles are stubborn but not foolish, and UK/France is too far. However, there shall be no cease-fire during the negotiation: every trick used by CCP and NK during the Korean War will now be copied by the West.
Totally agree with you but I would go further: the Oblasts you mention should be annexed back into Russia.
That is the only way to ward off a resumption of hot war a few years down the line. The Anglos, especially, the UK's deepstate and the US jewish neocons simply cannot be trusted.
The only concessions for Russia to make would be in special rights and status for some if these regions, Odessa for instance.
You have a point. The neutral zone is rarely neutral enough. My own proposal is Russian owns everything east of Dnieper (except Kiev City proper) and the buffer zone are completely west of the river. A safe passage to Transnistria through the Odesa Oblast must be secured.
Not an inch of ukrainian territory should remain in the hands of the ukronazis, whom so sincerely, deeply HATE and despise the Russian People, heirs of Stepán Bandera's ideology, whom they worship, declare Jan 1st as a national day of commemoration for him, erect monuments to him in at least ten cities:
1. Lviv
2. Ivano-Frankivsk
3. Kolomyia
4. Horodenka
5. Hrabivka (Kalush Raion)
6. Mykytyntsi (Ivano-Frankivsk Municipality)
7. Sniatyn
8. Staryi Uhryniv (Kalush Raion)
9. Tatariv (Nadvirna Raion)
10. Uzyn (Tysmenytsia Raion).
They, fully supported AGAIN by NATO, the US, the European Union and other Vassals of the US (all pushed by the US MIC, Military Industrial Complex) WILL certainly use it, sooner or later, to ATTACK Russia with their most advanced lethal weaponry.
That extremely dangerous ideology for the Russian National Security MUST be uprooted !!!
Imho, President Putin is dangerously, repeatedly signaling weakness to ALL those Russian HATERS by repeating over and over, for instance, that the Istanbul signed Pre-Agreements ARE a "good" starting point or "acceptable", or that he is always ready to negotiate with the United States, well known to never keep its promises or even SIGNED Treaties...
Any other than ukrainian unconditional surrender, is, imho, a russian surrender to the ukronazis and NATO, meaning all those russian lives lost did not match their voluntary sacrifice, and that NATO WILL survive, to continue threatening Russia...
Instead, a total ukrainian military defeat will demonstrate to the Collective West how MEANINGLESS NATO is, as the Afghan cavemen cleary demonstrated and it will also demonstrate how fake is the Western CIA/MIC brainwashed Mantra that Russia is "set to invade the European Union".
“NATO can always conventionally intervene in Ukraine west of the Dnieper to salvage some of its geopolitical project so Russia should assume that it won’t be able to demilitarize or denazify that part of the country.”
Given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are stronger than almost any NATO military, besides Türkiye or the United States perhaps, and haven’t been faring well against the Russian military; and given that they have already been supplied with extensive NATO equipment, wouldn’t any conventional conflict between NATO and Russian forces in the Ukraine west of the Dnieper be a toss-up at most?
I don't see how leaving any part of Ukraine under Western control not eventually result with 100% probability in Ukraine being militarized again and provoking Russia into a new war, now with Western guarantees, no matter what agreement is be reached today. Any such agreement will be broken by the West with absolute certainty. As long as any "neutral Ukraine" is allowed to be run by NED-financed pro-Western puppet politicians, that is the only possible outcome.
The British-made Storm Shadow missiles and the American-made Atacam missiles which bear cluster - bombs designed to disperse over a wide area and powder coated in green paint to persist undetected amidst the foliage for years until an unwary farmer or his child treads upon them, that have been deployed by NATO and Pentagon on the territory of Ukraine for hitting civilian targets inside Russia, are fully within operational control by NATO and Pentagon command centres and their operational control has not been transferred to Ukrainian hands by Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden. These missiles require a complex procedure for operation, relying on real time reconnaisance data from satellites for pinpointing the location of targets, and the feeding of a flight plan based on inertial coordinates into the on board computer. All of these steps are being performed by NATO and Pentagon directly without any participation by Ukrainian troops. For the past two and a half years, American drones flying over the Black Sea and the Ukraine have fired missiles and laser-guided bombs off and on at Russian civilian and military assetts, and have had their transponders which transmit IFOF frequencies, turned off, so that once they have hurled their payload of bombs on Russian targets, America can get away by saying that the incriminated drone belonged to the Ukrainian Airforce and not to America. On the other hand, if the drone gets shot down by a Russian missile before it could drop its bombs on Russia, American strategy is to create a ruckus by bemoaning that Russia has shot down a drone belonging to a third country, ie. America which is not a party to the conflict. Apart from dropping bombs on Russian assetts, American drones have also been transmitting reconnaisance data back to makeshift remote-command centres based deep inside the EU, in Germany and Czechia, from where EU civilians are directly remote-controlling missile batteries installed on Ukrainian soil and firing them at Russian targets. In this say, American and EU drones have been directly parricipating in aggression against Russia and Belarus, including the trecherous bombing of Russian ships from a designated peace corridor, and the shooting down of a Russian Awacs plane flying on routine peacetime mission over a third country, Belarus.
Thus, American and EU drones have been flying undaunted near Russia, with their identification-friend-or-foe frequencies turned ON on purpose until THE PENULTIMATE MOMENT when they fired their arsenal of bombs and missiles at Russian Targets after switching those transponders off suddenly. These drones also do not bear US Air Force or Navy markings. These drones have trecherously fired missiles and dropped bombs on Russian ships from the strategic nuclear fleet, from a "peace corridor" which had been agreed upon as a zone of no combat in triliteral agreements meant for facilitating Ukrainian foodgrain exports to Europe.
In this way, American and EU drones, which carry more than a dozen missiles each, have been taking off from bases situated imside the EU and from American warships, and have mounted direct aggression against Russia by bombing Russian ships, Russian airplanes on peacetime missions, and Russian civilian assetts. These drones are operated by remote control from NATO bases inside Europe, and fly over the Black Sea and Ukraime, and suddenly switch off their friend-or-foe-identification transponders at the PENULTIMATE MOMENT just before firing missiles and bombs on Russian targets, so that America can eschew culpability by saying that the drones involved do not belong to the American military, but are part of the Ukrainian arsenal. Whole swarms American and EU dtones keep loittering in the sky with hostile intentions in the expectation that Russia will shy away from shooting them down out of fear of embarrassment from adverse appraisal by western news agencies and their South Asian surrogates. And then, suddenly, the drones swing into action and fire missiles on Russian assetts by catching the latter off guard in the anecdotal moment. The best way for a farmer to save himself from a leopard or panther that has barged into his field is to shoot him dead at first sight, instead of waiting for it to demonsrrate its aggression by readiying itself to pounce on the farmer, because a lepard can strike at lightning speed. It is high time that both these drones as well as the European bases from where they takeoff, are smoked out of existence by Russia.
To deprecate the premptive downing of American drones by Russia is typical of priestcrafty conscience, as embodied in the priestcrafty untouchability-monger judicial officers who sentence innocent farmers in South Asia to imprisonment with hard labour for having shot leopards in self defence in their farms. The priestcrafters argue that a farmer should shoot at a leopard which has intruded in his field, only at the moment when the leopard has announced its hostile intentions by bracing up into position for pouncing on the poor man, and not one instant before. This priestcrafty argument is an undisguised call for murder of the farmer, given that the farmer stands no chance of escape once the leopard has jumped up in the air, because one cannot win against the lightening speed of a leopard strike.
Actually, most of the drones deployed by America and the EU over the black Sea and Ukraine do not bear any markings which would identify them as NATO or Pentagon assetts. They do not transmit IFOF frequencies. These drones are armed with missiles and bombs. They are used by the EU and Pentagon for bombing Russian assetts and troops, but the EU and the US immediately dismiss all culpability by claiming that those drones had been supplied to Ukraine and it is Ukraine which had been remote piloting them. The EU and America have been using their drones for surveillance to eavesdrop of Russian assetts located within Ukraine as well as mainland Russia, and relaying that info to makeshift remote command centres located deep within the EU in countries like Germany, Poland and Czechia. NATO and America have also deployed missile batteries aimed at targets located in mainland Russia and on ships belonging to the strategic Russian naval fleet. These missiles, although located on the territory of Ukraine, are not under operational control of the Ukrainian army, but are under semi-autonomous remote operational control by civilian and military personnel staffers at the makeshift NATO command centres situated in Germany, Poland and Czechia etc. It is from those command centres, that NATO and America have fired missiles at Russia strategic naval fleet ships in the Black Sea, and on a Russian Beriev airborne early warning aircraft which was on non-combat duty in a third country, Belarus. Moreover, American drones flying over the Black Sea, trecherously dropped bombs and fired missiles on a Russian frigate, from a peace corridor which had been agreeed upon as a no-combat zone, under a triliteral agreement for facilitating Ukrainian foodgrain exports, between Russia Ukraine and the western bloc. So, these American and German-operated drones were legitimate military targets of counter-strikes from Russian defense batteries. Notice the intellectual gymnastics involved in the tacit admission by western media outlets that American drones are known to carry upto 15 missiles, but with the rider that they are mainly used for "surveillance" alone. Western media outlets have been bemoaning that the American drones which had been downed by Russia , were only on benign reconnaisance missions and alleging that Russia has "unfairly escalated" matters by shooting it down. Either way, whether the drones have on a bombing sortie, or pure reconnoiteering, they deserved to be smoked out at the very least. More recently, towns in the Russian Far North Arctic were attacked by German drones launched from military launch pads in Germany, which overflew Finnish airspace before entering Russia. Understandably, Ukraine immediately owned up the act in a laughable attempt to cover for Germany.
Rishi Sunak and Akshata Murthy the first- couple-entitled- bedmates of Britain, and Joe Biden the ceremonial president of USA and Anthony Blinken the defacto-incharge, are guilty of having mounted direct aggression against civilians residing inside Russia, and attempts to launch missile as well as electronic sabotage attacks on Russian strategic forces hardware including nuclear early warning systems. NATO has attempted to hijack Russian ICBM's via electronic piloting by flying missiles with ECM payloads very close by, and neutralising those ICBM's by firing them at innocent civilians in Asia and Africa. The EU nations have announced their culpability by their deeds, and have rendered themselves legitimate targets of nuclear counter strikes for saving Asia and Africa from their holocaustic designs. In the same way in which an American drone operated and managed entirely by the Pentagon had trecherously fired a missile at a Russian AWACS plane on peacetime duty in a third country viz. Belarus; likewise all airports and railway stations inside the EU from which weapons are despatched to Ukraine have become legitimate targets of Russian tactical nuclear strikes.
As an erudite poster on substack has already pointed out, The Pentagon has readied a plenteous arsenal to bolster the Aegis Ashore missile bases in Poland and Romania, and also to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles at those bases, hoping to thereby achieve double objective of launching decapitating first nuclear strikes deep into the heart of Russia on the one hand as well as intercepting Russian ICBM's enroute to the US in any foreseeable retaliatory Russian response. However, Russia is not one to sit in slumber like a sitting duck facing imminent strategic annihilation. The ball of the element of surprise is now in Russia's court. Russia is left with few sensible options than to treat any impending Tomahawak strike on Russia from Poland or Romania as a nuclear strike meriting an inevitable strategic nuclear decapitatory counter-response against the perpetrator military bloc.
Russia has clearly stated it's goals and conditions for settlement. A neutral, demilitarized Ukraine. Not a frozen conflict with western "peace-keepers"
There really is no other option for Russia except to fight on.
Ukraine has no strategic significance to the US other than the prestige we foolishly invested in it. If Trump turns out to be the "more war" president, it will wreak his administration as 30% of his support melts away. All of Americas real enemies are at home, not 6000 away in Ukraine.
If Putin negotiates a Russian defeat, his own government is probably done. You can't be telling your people that this is an existential struggle and then give up without achieving any real objectives and in fact putting Russia in a worse spot than before.
The Russian missile strike tells the west that Nato airbases are all vulnerable using conventional weapons. The only militarily ready advantage Nato has in a conflict with Russia is Airpower. That airpower will be attrited against Russian AD while at the same time the bases expected to support that Nato air campaign can be bombarded at will.
The unknown in all this is the degree to which Trumps ego is invested in Bidens War. We will find out in 8 weeks or so.
"If Putin negotiates a Russian defeat, his own government is probably done."
A Russian defeat is practically impossible, but even if it was possible, Putin's government "being done" as a result is fantasy.
A negotiated settlement that doesn't meet all of Russia's expectations is most certainly not going to result in Putin's government "being done." Did American withdrawal from Afghanistan result in the collapse of the American regime at home? LOL, this is ridiculous and delusional Western wishful thinking.
No it's the west and nazi apartheid genocidal homicidal European colonist occupiers of Palestine that's going to bring the world to its end. The people will all die,but the planet will recover
I don't see this MRBM attack as an escalation, even though there were no doubt dozens of NATO engineers at work in that (huge, kilometers-square) factory complex.
No, this was simply a matter-of-fact demonstration that NATO is naked and butts-up in a war with Russia.
The Oreshnik systems have a range of 5,000 kilometers. From Kaliningrad to Dublin is 1752km. The cloud-to-ground speed of the many nearly vertical strikes seen on video appears to be something like Mach 10. How hardened are European military bases, airports, warehouses, and factories? Some idiot with ATACMS just made them all fair targets.
Russia's MRBM attack was an announcement that in a war with Russia, Europe has already lost. We all like the Louvre, don't we? "Nice little civilization you got here, hate to see anything happen to it."
Hi Andrew. Thanks for the article. Can you discuss the business side of this war? How important are the western deals made with the Ukraine? Do you think part of Russia's objective is to deny the west the natural resources that have been allegedly mortgaged to western corporations? Is it a security risk to Russia if western corporations are operating and exploiting agriculture and energy in Ukraine next to the Russian LOC? Many thanks, hope you can give us an article on the above.
Here in the hegemonic West, we are lead by genocidal fascists. We put our trust in the wisdom and temperance of Russian and Chinese leaders, hoping they understand the situation and act rationally. We have no such expectations regarding our own 'leaders'. How can this situation NOT lead to disaster? I don't see it. But who knows? Miracles DO happen.
"How can this situation NOT lead to disaster?"
By containing the American 'pivot (back) to Asia'.
It's a (Chinese) waiting game: the more energy the Americans invest into their inevitable second (or third of forth)-time-lucky attempt (colour revolutions in the DMZ, paying for amputees in NATO-Ukraine and refugees in the NATO-West-proper, preparatory intensified militarisation of the 'New Ukraine', etc.), the less they have to expend on preparation, doing the same thing to China, in Asia.
Ditto for the West to exhaust its inventory in a military failure when Russia can withstand the cost. Then less can be sent to Israel and a better chance of settlement in the Middle East. Russia, certainly, has no obligation of any kind to wear down the Western inventory for the ME.
"Russia, certainly, has no obligation of any kind to wear down the Western inventory for the ME"
No, certainly not OBLIGED; it's just worked out as happy coincidence: win-win-win. Thank you near-sighted and otherwise (self-)restricted American 'Deep State'! It couldn't have been done, wouldn't have worked, without you.
Funny thing is, how Putin understands and expresses the irony: had the Americans not been silly and insisted they must save their intermediate range missiles from a renewed treaty to use them for their long-awaited (front-line NATO) 'decapitation (first) strike', the Russians might not have developed the new technology, which makes all the stalling to shirk the treaty even better than pointless. It makes their shirking out of the treaty counter-productive — a truly GRAND irony! If only they'd renewed the treaty, as the Russians spent so many years begging them to do, NATO wouldn't have lost its first-strike potential and the Russians wouldn't have developed the technology to defeat them. Isn't it funny, how God works?!
All the Americans (formerly NATO) have to do now is relax and continue to rely on the Russians' goodwill and mercy. Win(for China)-Win(for the ME)-Win(for Europe) + another win or two (or three) for the Ukraine and the rest of the world. Thank you, Russia!
Indeed. Russia as led by Putin, can be described as following the principle of "preparing for what your opponents are capable of doing, rather than your estimation of what your opponents are likely to do.". Putin for one, had trusted the West too much in the past and he publicly acknowledged his fault (unusual for a national leader, anytime, anywhere) In contrast, the American elites, neocons, and deep staters have not only under-estimated Russia's capability, mis-judged or ignored Russians intention, AND over-estimated themselves. It is hard to acquire satisfactory results this way.
"It is hard to acquire satisfactory results this way."
Well, the funny thing is, as I see it, it's not possible to produce satisfactory results this way consciously. It's question of honesty, who you are at heart. It's so perceptive of you to have noticed, "...he publicly acknowledged his fault...". He wouldn't have been able to do this, had he been trying to produce results consciously. It's only because he does what he thinks is best, as he feels it at heart, that he is able to be honest about it. This is why so many other politicians are unable to produce the results they would like to see: they're so busy plotting and scheming at every level, both consciously and unconsciously, that they lose track of how they've lied to themselves, not to mention others. All the energy of their hearts and minds goes into keeping track of lies.
It's a religious-type thing: the discipline of training yourself from an early age to try and be good: do unto others, etc. and don't try to hide from your mistakes because doing that (and oh-such a wide variety of other things) will trip you up. I don't go to church but I do understand how churches (or temples or mosques or whatever you want to call religious discipline) would like people to make themselves.
Another part of the GRAND irony, which I find so gratifying here, is that the Americans, e.g. Lindsay Graham, would pretend they have instilled religious discipline in themselves. Putin, of course, would never say such a thing. He just is. You'd need to draw your own conclusions about the Americans.
An excellent point.
A different matter: The Confucius school of thought focuses on doing the right things and good things based on human nature and human wills. Confucius talked nothing about divine guidance or theology. He would not go to a church to find his strength then or now. But we do have to acknowledge that many people will need that extra boost from a mysterious source.
Well, Starmer is signaling that the attacks will continue, even if that means WWIII.
The west is led by Jews, not fascists. Russian propaganda is so retarded.
Russia has a golden opportunity to put an end to the threat that US proxy Ukraine poses by committing itself to the complete surrender of the Nazi Zelensky regime and the defeat of its AFU forces. Ukraine's total defeat would, once and for all, put an end to any notion of Ukraine being part of NATO, provide Russia with an extended buffer zone and make Ukraine responsible for reparations for its failure to abide by the Minsk accord, which only served as a hostile delaying tactic as later admitted. There is also the question of how many Russians were bombed and killed by Ukraine's ethnic cleansing campaign during the peace before the SMO. Such war crimes can't go unpunished.
However, Russia appears to want a negotiated settlement after Trump gets power. In other words, Russia is not committed to forcing Ukraine to surrender. It appears to want to make a deal even though it commands the battlefield with attrition rates of about 5 to 1. Really? Russia can destroy an enemy that tries to destroy it, but instead, it decides to make concessions. The escalation ladder that Russia is climbing is impotent. So, instead of taking it all (Ukraine), Russia will settle for a conditional settlement with the new Trump administration, only to face renewed hostilities at some time in the future instead of putting an end to it once and for all. No wonder the US doesn't take Russia seriously because it isn't. What would the US do if Russia had forces set up at the Mexican border? lol
Even if the West reaches a temporary settlement, they'll simply revert to terrorist or other asymmetric attacks on Russia, while playing stupid about who trains and sponsors those terrorists.
Finally.
The question remains whether NATO will listen. The problem is that NATO has already gone (and been allowed to go) so far that they cannot be seen to back down, now. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
Even if NATO does back off on missile attacks (and Russia's response shows that yes, they kind of were a big deal), they'll likely resort to terrorist attacks or other responses that cannot readily be dealt with using ICBMs.
They can back down, everyone knows that Ukraine is almost irrelevant for US strategic interests while being of existential interests to Russia. "NATO" as an entity has no will or interests of its own except American interests. The US left from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, it can just as easily leave from Ukraine. All the talking heads crying about how that's impossible is just nothing but propaganda. They will do a 180 degree turn the moment they get updated talking points from those above them.
The West has seen no reason to do do, and its leaders appear to be convinced otherwise, that Ukraine is existential for them.
It may appear so, and it's perhaps existential to their careers - Doesn't require them NOT to high-tail-it in reverse and spin-it like whirling-Dervishes.
Russia has to go to Moldova & Ukraine borders and incorporate them into Russia.
I am afraid it's too late and to little of Russian response to be taken seriously by the West. To the contrary, it may even be a welcome excuse for the NATO to deploy still more deadly weapons of still larger range to Ukraine.
I also don't understand why you, Andrew, write about "Putin's" instead of "Russian" response. Putin does not determine this policy alone. The leadership of Russian Federation - certainly in such existential matters - is much broader.
I'm afraid a single NATO soldier anywhere in the Ukraine is a defeat for Russia. Lvov was part of the ancient Rus, after all. Putin might be able to spin it otherwise for a while, but make no mistake, this would be a strategic defeat for Russia.
Depends on how you define "single NATO soldier anywhere in the Ukraine".
If by whiskey you mean "approved by Ruskies", then yes. Otherwise it is ww3 gaining momentum.
NATOstan cannot be united on the topic thus it will be another coalition of the willing and a bloodbath.
While Andrew's proposal may be more acceptable to the West, I think the boundary of Ukraine/western control has to be pushed back further. The neutral zone should include all Oblasts bordering on the Dnieper ((minus what has been annexed into Russia and Minus Kiev and area west of Kiev)), Nikolaev Oblast, and Odesa Oblast. Ukraine can control mostly everything in the TransDnieper region if sufficient autonomy is granted to individual Oblasts, the buffer zone totally de-militarized, de-banderalized, no western forces of any kind, no MIC. The issue is that the western bank of Dnieper is higher than the eastern bank from around Kremenchuk to the Sea, if not an even larger area.
IMHO, it is not too difficult for Trump to have a quick withdrawal of US involvement from Ukraine Given the Afghanistan experience. But chances are Russia has to deal with meddling from UK, France, Germany, and Poland. Germany may get softened soon enough; Poles are stubborn but not foolish, and UK/France is too far. However, there shall be no cease-fire during the negotiation: every trick used by CCP and NK during the Korean War will now be copied by the West.
Totally agree with you but I would go further: the Oblasts you mention should be annexed back into Russia.
That is the only way to ward off a resumption of hot war a few years down the line. The Anglos, especially, the UK's deepstate and the US jewish neocons simply cannot be trusted.
The only concessions for Russia to make would be in special rights and status for some if these regions, Odessa for instance.
You have a point. The neutral zone is rarely neutral enough. My own proposal is Russian owns everything east of Dnieper (except Kiev City proper) and the buffer zone are completely west of the river. A safe passage to Transnistria through the Odesa Oblast must be secured.
Not an inch of ukrainian territory should remain in the hands of the ukronazis, whom so sincerely, deeply HATE and despise the Russian People, heirs of Stepán Bandera's ideology, whom they worship, declare Jan 1st as a national day of commemoration for him, erect monuments to him in at least ten cities:
1. Lviv
2. Ivano-Frankivsk
3. Kolomyia
4. Horodenka
5. Hrabivka (Kalush Raion)
6. Mykytyntsi (Ivano-Frankivsk Municipality)
7. Sniatyn
8. Staryi Uhryniv (Kalush Raion)
9. Tatariv (Nadvirna Raion)
10. Uzyn (Tysmenytsia Raion).
They, fully supported AGAIN by NATO, the US, the European Union and other Vassals of the US (all pushed by the US MIC, Military Industrial Complex) WILL certainly use it, sooner or later, to ATTACK Russia with their most advanced lethal weaponry.
That extremely dangerous ideology for the Russian National Security MUST be uprooted !!!
Imho, President Putin is dangerously, repeatedly signaling weakness to ALL those Russian HATERS by repeating over and over, for instance, that the Istanbul signed Pre-Agreements ARE a "good" starting point or "acceptable", or that he is always ready to negotiate with the United States, well known to never keep its promises or even SIGNED Treaties...
Any other than ukrainian unconditional surrender, is, imho, a russian surrender to the ukronazis and NATO, meaning all those russian lives lost did not match their voluntary sacrifice, and that NATO WILL survive, to continue threatening Russia...
Instead, a total ukrainian military defeat will demonstrate to the Collective West how MEANINGLESS NATO is, as the Afghan cavemen cleary demonstrated and it will also demonstrate how fake is the Western CIA/MIC brainwashed Mantra that Russia is "set to invade the European Union".
The city of Zaporozhye was called Aleksandrovsk before 1921 - named after General Aleksander Golitsyn, a favourite of Catherine the Great.
“NATO can always conventionally intervene in Ukraine west of the Dnieper to salvage some of its geopolitical project so Russia should assume that it won’t be able to demilitarize or denazify that part of the country.”
Given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are stronger than almost any NATO military, besides Türkiye or the United States perhaps, and haven’t been faring well against the Russian military; and given that they have already been supplied with extensive NATO equipment, wouldn’t any conventional conflict between NATO and Russian forces in the Ukraine west of the Dnieper be a toss-up at most?
I don't see how leaving any part of Ukraine under Western control not eventually result with 100% probability in Ukraine being militarized again and provoking Russia into a new war, now with Western guarantees, no matter what agreement is be reached today. Any such agreement will be broken by the West with absolute certainty. As long as any "neutral Ukraine" is allowed to be run by NED-financed pro-Western puppet politicians, that is the only possible outcome.
The British-made Storm Shadow missiles and the American-made Atacam missiles which bear cluster - bombs designed to disperse over a wide area and powder coated in green paint to persist undetected amidst the foliage for years until an unwary farmer or his child treads upon them, that have been deployed by NATO and Pentagon on the territory of Ukraine for hitting civilian targets inside Russia, are fully within operational control by NATO and Pentagon command centres and their operational control has not been transferred to Ukrainian hands by Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden. These missiles require a complex procedure for operation, relying on real time reconnaisance data from satellites for pinpointing the location of targets, and the feeding of a flight plan based on inertial coordinates into the on board computer. All of these steps are being performed by NATO and Pentagon directly without any participation by Ukrainian troops. For the past two and a half years, American drones flying over the Black Sea and the Ukraine have fired missiles and laser-guided bombs off and on at Russian civilian and military assetts, and have had their transponders which transmit IFOF frequencies, turned off, so that once they have hurled their payload of bombs on Russian targets, America can get away by saying that the incriminated drone belonged to the Ukrainian Airforce and not to America. On the other hand, if the drone gets shot down by a Russian missile before it could drop its bombs on Russia, American strategy is to create a ruckus by bemoaning that Russia has shot down a drone belonging to a third country, ie. America which is not a party to the conflict. Apart from dropping bombs on Russian assetts, American drones have also been transmitting reconnaisance data back to makeshift remote-command centres based deep inside the EU, in Germany and Czechia, from where EU civilians are directly remote-controlling missile batteries installed on Ukrainian soil and firing them at Russian targets. In this say, American and EU drones have been directly parricipating in aggression against Russia and Belarus, including the trecherous bombing of Russian ships from a designated peace corridor, and the shooting down of a Russian Awacs plane flying on routine peacetime mission over a third country, Belarus.
Thus, American and EU drones have been flying undaunted near Russia, with their identification-friend-or-foe frequencies turned ON on purpose until THE PENULTIMATE MOMENT when they fired their arsenal of bombs and missiles at Russian Targets after switching those transponders off suddenly. These drones also do not bear US Air Force or Navy markings. These drones have trecherously fired missiles and dropped bombs on Russian ships from the strategic nuclear fleet, from a "peace corridor" which had been agreed upon as a zone of no combat in triliteral agreements meant for facilitating Ukrainian foodgrain exports to Europe.
In this way, American and EU drones, which carry more than a dozen missiles each, have been taking off from bases situated imside the EU and from American warships, and have mounted direct aggression against Russia by bombing Russian ships, Russian airplanes on peacetime missions, and Russian civilian assetts. These drones are operated by remote control from NATO bases inside Europe, and fly over the Black Sea and Ukraime, and suddenly switch off their friend-or-foe-identification transponders at the PENULTIMATE MOMENT just before firing missiles and bombs on Russian targets, so that America can eschew culpability by saying that the drones involved do not belong to the American military, but are part of the Ukrainian arsenal. Whole swarms American and EU dtones keep loittering in the sky with hostile intentions in the expectation that Russia will shy away from shooting them down out of fear of embarrassment from adverse appraisal by western news agencies and their South Asian surrogates. And then, suddenly, the drones swing into action and fire missiles on Russian assetts by catching the latter off guard in the anecdotal moment. The best way for a farmer to save himself from a leopard or panther that has barged into his field is to shoot him dead at first sight, instead of waiting for it to demonsrrate its aggression by readiying itself to pounce on the farmer, because a lepard can strike at lightning speed. It is high time that both these drones as well as the European bases from where they takeoff, are smoked out of existence by Russia.
To deprecate the premptive downing of American drones by Russia is typical of priestcrafty conscience, as embodied in the priestcrafty untouchability-monger judicial officers who sentence innocent farmers in South Asia to imprisonment with hard labour for having shot leopards in self defence in their farms. The priestcrafters argue that a farmer should shoot at a leopard which has intruded in his field, only at the moment when the leopard has announced its hostile intentions by bracing up into position for pouncing on the poor man, and not one instant before. This priestcrafty argument is an undisguised call for murder of the farmer, given that the farmer stands no chance of escape once the leopard has jumped up in the air, because one cannot win against the lightening speed of a leopard strike.
Actually, most of the drones deployed by America and the EU over the black Sea and Ukraine do not bear any markings which would identify them as NATO or Pentagon assetts. They do not transmit IFOF frequencies. These drones are armed with missiles and bombs. They are used by the EU and Pentagon for bombing Russian assetts and troops, but the EU and the US immediately dismiss all culpability by claiming that those drones had been supplied to Ukraine and it is Ukraine which had been remote piloting them. The EU and America have been using their drones for surveillance to eavesdrop of Russian assetts located within Ukraine as well as mainland Russia, and relaying that info to makeshift remote command centres located deep within the EU in countries like Germany, Poland and Czechia. NATO and America have also deployed missile batteries aimed at targets located in mainland Russia and on ships belonging to the strategic Russian naval fleet. These missiles, although located on the territory of Ukraine, are not under operational control of the Ukrainian army, but are under semi-autonomous remote operational control by civilian and military personnel staffers at the makeshift NATO command centres situated in Germany, Poland and Czechia etc. It is from those command centres, that NATO and America have fired missiles at Russia strategic naval fleet ships in the Black Sea, and on a Russian Beriev airborne early warning aircraft which was on non-combat duty in a third country, Belarus. Moreover, American drones flying over the Black Sea, trecherously dropped bombs and fired missiles on a Russian frigate, from a peace corridor which had been agreeed upon as a no-combat zone, under a triliteral agreement for facilitating Ukrainian foodgrain exports, between Russia Ukraine and the western bloc. So, these American and German-operated drones were legitimate military targets of counter-strikes from Russian defense batteries. Notice the intellectual gymnastics involved in the tacit admission by western media outlets that American drones are known to carry upto 15 missiles, but with the rider that they are mainly used for "surveillance" alone. Western media outlets have been bemoaning that the American drones which had been downed by Russia , were only on benign reconnaisance missions and alleging that Russia has "unfairly escalated" matters by shooting it down. Either way, whether the drones have on a bombing sortie, or pure reconnoiteering, they deserved to be smoked out at the very least. More recently, towns in the Russian Far North Arctic were attacked by German drones launched from military launch pads in Germany, which overflew Finnish airspace before entering Russia. Understandably, Ukraine immediately owned up the act in a laughable attempt to cover for Germany.
Rishi Sunak and Akshata Murthy the first- couple-entitled- bedmates of Britain, and Joe Biden the ceremonial president of USA and Anthony Blinken the defacto-incharge, are guilty of having mounted direct aggression against civilians residing inside Russia, and attempts to launch missile as well as electronic sabotage attacks on Russian strategic forces hardware including nuclear early warning systems. NATO has attempted to hijack Russian ICBM's via electronic piloting by flying missiles with ECM payloads very close by, and neutralising those ICBM's by firing them at innocent civilians in Asia and Africa. The EU nations have announced their culpability by their deeds, and have rendered themselves legitimate targets of nuclear counter strikes for saving Asia and Africa from their holocaustic designs. In the same way in which an American drone operated and managed entirely by the Pentagon had trecherously fired a missile at a Russian AWACS plane on peacetime duty in a third country viz. Belarus; likewise all airports and railway stations inside the EU from which weapons are despatched to Ukraine have become legitimate targets of Russian tactical nuclear strikes.
As an erudite poster on substack has already pointed out, The Pentagon has readied a plenteous arsenal to bolster the Aegis Ashore missile bases in Poland and Romania, and also to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles at those bases, hoping to thereby achieve double objective of launching decapitating first nuclear strikes deep into the heart of Russia on the one hand as well as intercepting Russian ICBM's enroute to the US in any foreseeable retaliatory Russian response. However, Russia is not one to sit in slumber like a sitting duck facing imminent strategic annihilation. The ball of the element of surprise is now in Russia's court. Russia is left with few sensible options than to treat any impending Tomahawak strike on Russia from Poland or Romania as a nuclear strike meriting an inevitable strategic nuclear decapitatory counter-response against the perpetrator military bloc.
Russia has clearly stated it's goals and conditions for settlement. A neutral, demilitarized Ukraine. Not a frozen conflict with western "peace-keepers"
There really is no other option for Russia except to fight on.
Ukraine has no strategic significance to the US other than the prestige we foolishly invested in it. If Trump turns out to be the "more war" president, it will wreak his administration as 30% of his support melts away. All of Americas real enemies are at home, not 6000 away in Ukraine.
If Putin negotiates a Russian defeat, his own government is probably done. You can't be telling your people that this is an existential struggle and then give up without achieving any real objectives and in fact putting Russia in a worse spot than before.
The Russian missile strike tells the west that Nato airbases are all vulnerable using conventional weapons. The only militarily ready advantage Nato has in a conflict with Russia is Airpower. That airpower will be attrited against Russian AD while at the same time the bases expected to support that Nato air campaign can be bombarded at will.
The unknown in all this is the degree to which Trumps ego is invested in Bidens War. We will find out in 8 weeks or so.
"If Putin negotiates a Russian defeat, his own government is probably done."
A Russian defeat is practically impossible, but even if it was possible, Putin's government "being done" as a result is fantasy.
A negotiated settlement that doesn't meet all of Russia's expectations is most certainly not going to result in Putin's government "being done." Did American withdrawal from Afghanistan result in the collapse of the American regime at home? LOL, this is ridiculous and delusional Western wishful thinking.
No it's the west and nazi apartheid genocidal homicidal European colonist occupiers of Palestine that's going to bring the world to its end. The people will all die,but the planet will recover
Excellent, as always, thanks.
I don't see this MRBM attack as an escalation, even though there were no doubt dozens of NATO engineers at work in that (huge, kilometers-square) factory complex.
No, this was simply a matter-of-fact demonstration that NATO is naked and butts-up in a war with Russia.
The Oreshnik systems have a range of 5,000 kilometers. From Kaliningrad to Dublin is 1752km. The cloud-to-ground speed of the many nearly vertical strikes seen on video appears to be something like Mach 10. How hardened are European military bases, airports, warehouses, and factories? Some idiot with ATACMS just made them all fair targets.
Russia's MRBM attack was an announcement that in a war with Russia, Europe has already lost. We all like the Louvre, don't we? "Nice little civilization you got here, hate to see anything happen to it."
Spot on! This statement is worth repeating - ..."simply a matter-of-fact demonstration that NATO is naked and butts-up in a war with Russia."
This video of an interview by Dr Jeffery Sachs explains clearly the threat Russia and others face. Saying my prayers for all of us.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jXvuOG33zLs
Hi Andrew. Thanks for the article. Can you discuss the business side of this war? How important are the western deals made with the Ukraine? Do you think part of Russia's objective is to deny the west the natural resources that have been allegedly mortgaged to western corporations? Is it a security risk to Russia if western corporations are operating and exploiting agriculture and energy in Ukraine next to the Russian LOC? Many thanks, hope you can give us an article on the above.
Ukraine is of no value to the West, except as a spear pointed at Russia.